The Giants Front Office did their annual past season (they call it postseason, but I associate that with the playoffs) press conference, which is available on YouTube. Posey doubled down on and reiterated what he said in last year’s press conferences about the Giants strategy: pitching and defense. He also said it again in this NBC Sports snippet.
He said the Giants this offseason will focus on starting pitching, noting how he thought they had SP depth at the start of the season and learned the adage that you never can have enough pitching. He also noted that they will pursue bullpen help as well.
ogc thoughts
As we all know, Bob Melvin was fired from his job as manager of the Giants. For a long time now, people have been talking about their disappointments with the Giants. From my perspective, the season was disappointing mainly because the start gave such portents of a good season, only to be dashed on the rocks midseason.
But as I noted in my posts about the 2025 season, it is a transition year, because we are still relying on a lot of young players who have not established what their average performance is, so there will be a lot of steps back (Birdsong, Fitzgerald, Ramos, Walker), as well as steps forward (Roupp, Rodriguez, Peguero, Koss, Schmitt, McDonald). Hence my wide range of estimated wins for this season, 80-89, somewhere in the 80’s. They just barely reached the bottom of my range.
Thus, I’m not as disappointed or frustrated as many other fans are. The Giants simply didn’t advance as much as hoped, but when it comes to young unproven players, nothing is guaranteed other than they are likely to not do everything you hope they would. And I’m optimistic about the future.
But managers who are managing a team with a good record, then gets a great hitter acquired like Devers, only for the team to go into a tailspin, and fall out of the race enough that the Front Office felt the need to sell off before the trade deadline, they generally get fired. So, it’s not that surprising that he got fired. And Posey is on the hunt for a new manager now, appears to be interviewing a lot of catchers, like Nick Hundley (seems to be the betting favorite for now, as Posey said Hundley is one of his best friends, but has not managerial experience) and Craig Albernaz.
FYI, I liked doing the Eldridge post, so I’m thinking of doing a whole bunch of individual profiles this offseason, but want to start with this overall look at what the Giants need to do for 2026 to improve.
Elite Starting Pitching
Everyone has their point where they thought the Giants wheels came off. Most chose losing streaks, some actually use Devers as the pivot point (ridiculous, because even if he wasn’t hitting as well as he could early on - he was battling back and groin injuries but still played 163 games - he was still hitting much better than Wade was). I think the point where the season went off the road was when Roupp was injured.
Roupp had a bad April, but from May until he was ILed, he had 14 starts with a 2.27 ERA, which gave the Giants three aces during that period with Webb and Ray. After he went on the IL, the Giants went 8-19 before they stopped their death dive. After that point, Verlander had 7 starts, 1.96 ERA, giving the Giants another ace and another win streak (also, the offense was hot as well), until Ray hit the wall in his last six starts, over 8 ERA, and the team sank again. This 2025 team needed three aces going regularly to be competitive.
I counted up four different extended losing skeins, each roughly two weeks: one that started in mid-June (4-12), one that started in mid-July (2-12), one that started in early August (2-11), and one that started in mid-September (2-9). Combined, the Giants were 10-44 during those stretches, basically worse than the Rockies over roughly a third of the season. Eliminating simply one of the losing stretches (by going .500) would have put the Giants in the last wild card spot (one stretch would have added 3-5 wins, and they ended up two games behind the Reds and Mets, both of whom had won the tiebreaker).
So I am very happy the Giants first priority is getting starting pitching. As my business plan showed, having an elite starting rotation is a key to both getting to 90 wins even with an average offense, and more importantly, going deep into the playoffs and hopefully getting that championship. And as seen above, things went awry whenever there was less than three starters who were dealing.
With salaries coming off from the start of the season (Yaz, Wade, Flores, Murphy, Verlander, Rogers, Doval), that should free up enough to get an elite SP like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez (I prefer him between the two, he's been a lot more successful in the playoffs), assuming their current clubs don’t sign them beforehand.
Starting Pitching Depth
I also wouldn’t mind if they get Verlander again, or another vet with question marks (Gallen, Kelly, Woodward) as the 4th starter, which then leaves Roupp as the fifth starter.
I am okay with Roupp as the 5th starter. Roupp likely will not pitch the whole season, which is why some don’t like him as the 5th starter. His pro high was 2025 with 109.2 IP. If we are lucky, he can work his way up to 150-160, as well as continue to pitch well (he was not back to his prior good performance when he returned from IL, so he needs to regain that level).
So the Giants will likely need a good stash of SP in the minors if he’s the fifth starter. In addition to the young pitchers who still have options (Birdsong, Whisenhunt, McDonald, Black, Seymour, not sure about Teng) there are a number of young SP without options (Winn, Beck, Teng?), who might end up as relievers on the MLB roster, if they are not starting.
And the Giants are hopefully scanning the unestablished free agents for the next Vogelsong or Petit. That was a key factor for the dynasty period, finding good players like Casilla, Torres, Uribe, Vogelsong, Blanco, Petit, tossed to the wayside by other teams.
Bullpen Additions
On top of the starting rotation addition(s), Posey noted the need for bullpen help. Again, a great bullpen is a key ingredient of the Dynasty period and, really, any good team, as other studies (like Tom Tippett of Diamond Mind and Red Sox) have shown.
First priority, I believe, is getting Tyler Rogers back. He is a free agent for the first time, and hopefully the Mets don’t take him off the market quickly. The Giants need a steady set up guy like him to steady that group, and really, be a foundation. And submariners tend to have a long productive career late into their 30’s.
Next, Walker should be put back into a set up role. He was great doing that, and clearly has issues being THE guy, and that’s okay, not everyone can handle the role, that’s why there is such a churn at that position. He would also help stabilize the back end of the bullpen.
Even with Miller coming back, plus Butto and Peguero looking good, I would be on the lookout for a pitcher who can become the new Jeremy Affeldt, someone we can rely on from 6th to 9th innings to shut down threats.
As much as the Giants need a closer, we have many examples of free agent closers who didn’t deliver on their contracts (Nen, Benitez, Melancon, Taylor Rogers, who wasn’t used by the Giants as closer, but was a closer before, and ended up a middle inning mop up pitcher for the Giants).
I would rather let our pitchers compete and hopefully one will stand out as closer by midseason, and if not, trade a low prospect for one. I would like to see Winn and Beck get a try as closers, they looked ready to take on more responsibilities after 2023, and I think that they are out of options now.
Position Players Mostly Set
The open starting positions are DH, 1B, 2B, and RF, but we know Devers is either 1B or DH in any lineup, so there’s really only two starting spots open, with the bench rotating through the DH spot. If it were me, I’m putting Devers down as DH, because I don’t want him getting injured fielding, but he’s probably playing 1B a good percentage (if not most) of the season, as the new manager will likely rotate in other starters as DH, to get their bat but also given them some rest, while giving the bench a start. I do not expect Eldridge to get 1B in spring, as he still has some work to do after striking out so much in the majors. But based on his batted ball stats, he’s not far away either.
People will want to sign free agents for the open spots, to boost the offense, but I expect improvement from the current starters. Jung Hoo Lee ended the season hitting in the high 700’s for the last three months. I expect him to do that or better over the full season in 2026, which is an improvement. Adames will start slow again, as always, but better, and end well again, which is an improvement. Bailey ended the season hitting better, and using the torpedo bat early in the season seemed to hurt his performance, but he won’t be using it next season. Devers will hit as he usually can, plus do it all season, improving on 1B or DH.
For the four open spots, it seems clear enough who might win the position. Most likely, Devers will play 1B a lot, but will move to DH, with maybe Schmitt playing 1B, enabling Koss to start at 2B. I expect Koss and Schmitt to battle for starting 2B role, and the loser to become the backup middle infielder. I suspect the Giants will favor Schmitt because of his power potential at 2B. Unless Gilbert grabs RF in spring training, I expect the Giants to use his option to send him to AAA, and Matos and Luciano will battle for starting RF role, with the loser taking the backup OF bench spot. I just can’t see the Giants giving up on either at the moment, and both are out of options.
DH seems like it will rotate again, whoever the new manager is, between Devers and the bench players. It seems like Jesus Rodriguez is slotted for the backup catcher role, so I expect him to get some starts at DH and 1B when he is not catching. Jerar Encarnacion has power potential that has intrigued the Giants, and likely is playing the OF or DH off the bench. Luciano similarly if he’s on the bench, but if Matos loses the battle, I don’t see him getting a lot of DH starts, I think Rodriguez and Encarnacion will get the majority of the starts, at least early on, to get more experience.
With no full time DH, there should be five bench players who appear to include Rodriguez as backup catcher, one of Koss or Schmitt as backup middle infielder, one of Matos or Luciano as backup OF, Encarnacion as backup OF/DH, and one more spot for a middle infielder, which at this moment, appears to be Tyler Fitzgerald.
With this roster, that means no space for Dom Smith. I love Dom, and I expect him to want another team anyway, because he showed off well in his opportunities with the Giants, and because there’s Eldridge looming as a potential midseason call up. I wish him well, and hope he finds a team who will treasure him, unlike the Mets or the other teams. But if he doesn’t sign with any team, he could return and take that last spot.
Now, there is the potential that the Giants ownership decides that they are willing to spend even more big bucks than an elite SP, a middle rotation SP, Tyler Rogers, and another great set up reliever. If so, they could decide to pursue a starting 2B or starting RF. Some have suggested Bo Bichette for 2B, or Kyle Tucker for RF. That, of course, would change the above. While I would love these additions, the Giants have never shelled out so much, and they might want to save some for a big free agent after next season, instead of using up all their finances this offseason. But if they decide that the fans can’t stomach another trying season, they could blow up their finances and sign another big money free agent.
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