Go to the MLB Draft Tracker on-line, click on Team and select Giants, to see all the players the Giants selected in the 2012 draft. Players with some additional content are the players with more potential than other, the more content, the higher the potential. These are the players with Full Scouting Reports: Chris Stratton and Martin Agosta. There are the players with player comments in the tracker: Steven Okert and Stephen Johnson. These are the players with Scouting Video: Shilo McCall, Matthew Duffy, Nolan Long, and Tyler Ferguson.
The MLB had an article focusing on the Giants focus on college pitchers in this draft.
Of the 40 players the Giants selected, only five of them were high school players -- four of whom were selected in rounds 37-40. The Giants selected more pitchers (21) than position players (19), including 14 on the third and final day of the Draft on Wednesday.
Stratton and several other Giants pitching draftees were noted for their velocity and power pitching, though Giants scouting director John Barr said that was not the team's intention coming into the Draft.
"We weren't leaning towards that way," Barr said Monday after the Giants selected Stratton. "Are we always mindful of it? I think we're mindful of trying to add value to the organization."
Of the 21 pitchers selected, 19 were college pitchers, including potential future starters Stratton, St. Mary's Martin Agosta (second round) and Creighton's Ty Blach (fifth), as well as relievers Steven Okert from Oklahoma (third), St. Edwards' Stephen Johnson (sixth) and Miami's Eduardo Encinosa (seventh).
The lone high school player selected in the first 36 rounds of the Draft was outfielder Shilo McCall (ninth round) out of Piedra Vista High School in New Mexico. McCall is committed to playing college baseball for Arkansas in the fall, but has said he intends to sign with the Giants and turn professional.Alex Pavlovic of the Merc blogged on the various earlier round draft picks. Some key tidbits:
STEVEN OKERT, LHP, OKLAHOMA: The 6-foot-3 lefty had five saves and a 2.78 ERA this season. According to the MLB.com scouting report, he “has been lights out (as a closer) and is one of the main reasons Oklahoma has done so well this year. In pro ball, he will definitely come out of the bullpen and could make it to the Majors quickly.”
TYLER BLACH, LHP, CREIGHTON: Blach, a 6-foot-1 southpaw, was selected 178th overall and is Creighton’s highest draft pick in 13 years. He was 6-6 in 21 starts and had a 2.76 ERA. According to his Creighton profile, Blach had a 4.2 GPA in high school and was a financial analysis major in college.
STEPHEN JOHNSON, RHP, ST. EDWARD’S UNIVERSITY: The closer was selected 208th. He was a first-team Division II All-American after putting up a 1.45 ERA and compiling 18 saves. In 43 1/3 innings this season, Johnson struck out 74. According to reports, Johnson’s fastball touches TRIPLE digits, but he struggles with command sometimes.
EDUARDO ENCINOSA, RHP, MIAMI: Went 3-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 24 appearances, all out of them out of the bullpen. He’s listed at 6-5, 242.
JOSEPH KURRASCH, LHP, PENN STATE: The junior was selected 268th overall. He grew up in San Juan Capistrano and his Penn State profile lists him as a Giants fan, so he’s off to a good start. Also, he lists cholula hot sauce as his favorite food – another plus. On the mound he went 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 16 games, 11 of which were starts.
SHILO MCCALL, CF, PIEDRA VISTA HIGH SCHOOL (NEW MEXICO):McCall is committed to Arkansas but said he plans to turn pro. “The first thing I did was go buy a Giants hat for me and my family,” McCall told The Daily Times in Famington. “Phase one of my dream is complete. Phase two is working like hell to get to the Giants.”
TREVOR BROWN, C, UCLA: The Giants’ 10th-round pick hit .322 for UCLA this year. He has played third base, second base, first base and catcher in his two seasons at UCLA and has played shortstop in the past. As you know, the Giants have had success with athletic catchers.BA noted all the Giants players who were ranked in the BA 500 list. The Giants were near the bottom of the list, but that is not a big surprise: in a prior study, I looked at where players were selected by the Giants compared to his rank in BA's Top draftees list, and found that the Giants typically drafted players at least a round or more before where BA had ranked him. Here are the players drafted:
Giants (10): Chris Stratton (18), Stephen Johnson (63), Martin Agosta (106), Steven Okert (152), Ty Blach (194), Ryan Tella (201), Mac Williamson (236), E.J. Encinosa (322), Mason McVay (356), Trevor Brown (475).These are there overall pick for these players: Chris Stratton (20; 2 picks ahead), Stephen Johnson (208; 145 picks after, or roughly 5 rounds later), Martin Agosta (84; 22 ahead, or roughly 1 round ahead), Steven Okert (148; 4 ahead), Ty Blach (178; 16 ahead), Ryan Tella (358; 157 after, or roughly 5 rounds after), Mac Williamson (115; 121 ahead, or 4 rounds ahead), E.J. Encinosa (238; 84 ahead, or roughly 3 rounds ahead), Mason McVay (808; or 452 after, or roughly 15 rounds after), Trevor Brown (328; 147 ahead, or roughly 5 rounds ahead).
BA notes on other picks, from their draft blog:
The fourth round saw a run on several pitchers who project best in the bullpen, starting with San Jose State righthander Zach Jones (Twins) to Xavier converted righthander Seth Willoughby (Rockies), Oklahoma lefthander Steven Okert (Giants), Utah righthander Tyler Wagner (Brewers) and Faulkner (Ala.) righthander Corey Black (Yankees).Giants Thoughts
The players to be followed are the ones who had scouting reports of some sort or at least scouting videos. Also, the players who are among the BA 500.
But frankly, after the first round, the odds are very against any of them ever even making the majors, let alone be useful, let alone be a good player. The odds of most of these picks being a good player is significantly under 1%.
9th Round Example of Bad Probability
Let's take a look at the 9th round, from 1990-1999. That's still seems low to most people, plus it was the one where Shilo was selected (nothing against him). The numbers are bleak.
In those 10 years, there were 285 players drafted. Unfortunately, I cannot tell who was signed and who wasn't, so I counted all of them; thus there could be some over counting. Still won't matter.
In those 10 years, only 59 of them even made the majors. Thats' 20.7%. I then looked at players who had at least 162 games if position player, 30 games if pitcher, or essentially one year's worth of play. Only 27 qualified there, 9.5% of picks. Now lets look at those over 4.5 WAR: only 9 of them, or 3.2%. There are only 6 of them with over 9.0 WAR, or 2.1%. My standard for a good player is 18.0 WAR and there were only 5 of them or 1.8%.
In other words, it will take approximately 57 years of selecting the #9 pick, on average, to find one good player, roughly 32 years to find at least a moderately good player (that's > 4.5 WAR). It would take 5 years of these picks just to find a player who even makes the majors, 11 years to find a player who plays more than a year of baseball for you.
And it just gets worse with each round after that.
Bad But Not Automatic
Don't mean to be a downer on the draft, nor did I mean to discourage any draft pick that far back in the draft, though I know this might. I just see so many people throwing themselves off the Golden Gate Bridge right now over the Giants draft, particularly for what they did after the first few rounds. This, to me, is equivalent to obsessing over the Giants 25th player on the roster and declaring Sabean to be an idiot for his choices there.
The silver lining for the guys who are selected in the later rounds is that they all have talents that made them valuable enough for a baseball team to select them. The key is that they need to apply themselves to their new profession and find a way to improve themselves despite the odds. Bend the ear of any coach, at any time, to absorb information about baseball. Get their advice and counsel. Be a young man, but don't let it interfere with your prime objective: making the majors.
And there have been many players drafted later. Nolan Ryan was selected in the 12th. And Albert Pujols was selected in the 13th. And the most famous is Mike Piazza, so bad that he was selected as a favor for Lasorda in the 62nd round.
Giving Your Best
So there is talent back there. I believe the difference is that some players make the most of their opportunity. Not all of these players will make it, but as the saying goes, if you gave your all on the field, there is no more that you can ask of yourself, no matter the results. You did your best.
But some are not being all that they can be. Some will party out late a lot. Some will abuse something. Some will just drift through, not giving their all. Some will not take advantage of the coaches, or worse, not even listen to the coaches. Some will not run out every grounder. Some will be half-hearted sliding into second base on the front end of a double play.
And a lot of them will do all that the right way and still not make it. Still, if that player did all that he could do and left it all on the field, he will have nothing to be ashamed of. He gave it his best. That is all he can ask of himself. It just wasn't meant to be.