In the 2025 MLB draft, the Giants selected SS Gavin Kilen with the 13th overall pick in the first round. Keith Law heard that the Giants were in on RHP Tyler Bremmer, who was ranked around the middle of the first round, but the Angels surprised everyone by selecting him second overall.
ogc thoughts
Kilen is a well regarded college SS but 2B appears to be his future position. In any case, the Giants announced him as a SS, so he will start off there, much like Joe Panik, who was a college SS viewed as a future 2B. This keeps up his trade value initially, but as he gets close to the majors, especially with Adames at SS (and Josuar Gonzalez a highly ranked SS prospect), he will likely get playing time at second for versatility.
He appears to be a player with a high floor more than a high potential. Perhaps that’s Posey’s focus in drafts, or maybe it’s because Kilen is a high contact hitter with line drive ability. In any case, hitting is his elite skill, making it more likely that he can hit in the majors, and perhaps he can rise faster to the majors, as well. His other skills are average or lower.
His profile seems to fit Oracle Park, as a contact hitter with some modest LH power, which may take advantage of the gaps in the park. That also is a nice hitter’s profile for building a more consistently productive offense, unlike TTO hitters like Chapman, Adames, Ramos, Yaz, Schmitt (who still needs to prove himself) which seems to lead to periods of limp offense, as we have seen this season. Kilen would hopefully help balance the Giants lineup, joining Devers and Lee (Jung Hoo still needs to figure it out).
Analyst Scouting Reports
Here are some reports on his prospects.
Per Fangraph Eric Longenhagen (15th rank):
“…Posted plus contact rates in both underclass seasons but overall line was still a little below average in each due to lack of power. Then had a monster junior year with an 1.100 OPS.
Plus lefty contact bat with modest power. Really loose hitting hands, tracks pitches well and moves bat around the zone, best in the lower two thirds. Has doubles pop thanks to consistent contact quality, but is unlikely to hit 20-plus bombs.
Improved look at shortstop as a junior, has a shot to be nearly average there. Makes the routine plays comfortably, but lacks a standout individual tool like plus range or arm strength. Would definitely be playing second base on a bunch of big league rosters, but in a vacuum could stand at shortstop.
Among the higher-floored players in the 2025 draft, profiles as a second-division regular middle infielder.”
Per The Athletic Keith Law (subscription required) (7th rank):
“… The only thing that stopped him all spring was a hamstring injury that took him out for close to a month; other than that, he hit for contact and power, walking more than he’s struck out, playing capable defense at short and above-average defense at second. Kilen struck out in just 11 percent of his PA this year, and his whiff rate on pitches in the zone is just 10 percent, yet he still hits for significant power, topping out over 110 mph and boosting his average exit velocity about 2 mph over his sophomore year. He’s going to end up at second base in pro ball, maybe starting out there, with a chance to hit .300+ with at least solid-average power.”
“Kilen has some of the best batted-ball and swing data in the draft…. Some scouts are just suspicious of his smaller build and the fact that he’s not staying at shortstop. …”Per MLB Pipeline (21st rank and 2nd rank 2B):
“Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55
Kilen displayed some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the 2022 high school class but slid to the Red Sox in the 13th round because he was set on attending Louisville. He spent two years with the Cardinals, boosting his OPS from .659 as a freshman second baseman to .952 as a sophomore shortstop before deciding to transfer to Tennessee. He slid back over to second this spring while establishing himself as one of the best hitters in the Southeastern Conference.
With outstanding hand-eye coordination, a quick left-handed swing and feel for the barrel, Kilen continues to excel as a contact hitter. He tends to swing too often and chase breaking pitches, sometimes putting pitches in play without much authority and rarely drawing walks. He has shown more power with the Volunteers but may not have more than average raw pop, and while his hitting ability should enable him to get to most of it, he has yet to prove he can drive balls in the air with wood bats.
Kilen's skills stand out more than his tools, with his speed and arm strength both grading as average. He has good actions and instincts but the game speeds up on him and his arm is a bit stretched at shortstop. He's a solid defender at second base and could develop in a similar fashion to fellow Wisconsin prep product Gavin Lux.”
Per MLB’s Maria Guardado (using Pipeline info):
“There’s no questioning Kilen’s elite bat-to-ball skills: He’s a contact-oriented hitter with a 60-grade hit tool. Pipeline notes that Kilen has a tendency to chase pitches out of the strike zone, though he did have more walks (30) than strikeouts (27) during his junior season.
It remains to be seen how Kilen’s power will project at the next level, as a 5-foot-11 middle infielder. Still, he’s seen significant growth in the power department, increasing his slugging percentage every season. After slugging .338 without a home run as a freshman, Kilen hit the second-most home runs of any Tennessee player in 2025.
Defensively, Kilen profiles as a second baseman, mostly because of average arm strength, though he was announced as a shortstop after being selected by the Giants. Kilen has plenty of experience there, too, as he started 54 games at shortstop for the Cardinals as a sophomore in ’24.”
Interview with Holmes about picks of Gavin Kilen and the third rounder, Trevor Cohen: https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/gavin-kilen-trevor-cohen-draft-analysis/1861898/
ReplyDeleteThe focus with Sunday's two picks was on getting players with elite bat-to-ball skills. First-rounder Gavin Kilen has one of the best contact profiles in the draft, and while third-rounder Trevor Cohen was taken earlier than expected, the Giants were drawn to his history of limiting strikeouts and making solid contact at Rutgers.
"I think it's always something we desire," Holmes said. "Look, last year a guy like Dakota Jordan had a little swing-and-miss to his college game, but there were things we believed from a player development perspective that we could help him correct some of that based on his tool set, and we're really happy with the way he's playing right now.
"It's not that we're afraid to not take a guy, but I think first and foremost (contact hitters are) a type of player that we're attracted to."
About Kilen: "It's elite bat-to-ball skills and we're talking about a career 10 percent strikeout rate for him in his college years and more walks than strikeouts," Holmes said. "We think that he's more of a line-drive hitter but he's a guy that was able to hit 15 home runs this year so we think there's some power to come. We're just really excited to have him." It was also noted that he played 2B last season, but switching back to SS as pro.
About Cohen: The left-handed hitter primarily played right field -- Peyton Bonds, the nephew of Barry, was the center fielder -- but the Giants believe Cohen can play center field as a professional. Holmes said Cohen blew the Giants away during his interview at the pre-draft combine.
"(He's a) guy with a career eight percent strikeout rate. Another guy that touches the baseball, puts it in play, elite contact skills," Cohen said. "We think he can play center field. We like living in the middle of the diamond and like guys that make elite contact and we think we accomplished both of those with these guys."
About Posey: The picks were the first two of the Posey Era, although Holmes has been running the draft since 2019. He said not much has changed in the draft room from previous years.
"He was great, super-supportive of not only myself but my entire draft, asked a lot of good questions and was right there in the room with us and involved with all the conversations," Holmes said of Posey. "There's just a real calming presence to him ... but as far as the draft mechanics, there was not a lot of change but there was definitely a new presence and it was a lot of fun in our room to have him."
Thought I would comment on the draft here.
ReplyDeleteThe third pick appears to be a planned overdraft: Tyler Cohen was not ranked by any of the major rankings (BA, BP, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline) and 233nd by ESPN (about 7th round). So expect some savings on the $935K bonus slot.
That plus the 5% overage allowed, could add up to around $1M extra. And the Giants drafted 3 HS players, 9th, 17th and 20th.
I assume this is mostly allocated for the 9th round pick, LHP Reid Worley, based on this article about his unique pitch: https://aroundthefoghorn.com/sf-giants-late-2025-mlb-draft-selection-brings-crazy-attribute-to-organization-01k059b5tdgh
Also: https://www.mlb.com/news/craziest-pitch-grip-reid-worley-mlb-draft
Per the article, his picks bonus is $204K. The Giants were able to sign Webb to a $600K deal, in the fourth round, about $200K above his slot. So I would guess somewhere in between slot and what Webb got, especially since Worley isn’t even ranked either by the major draft rankings (ESPN ranked him 173rd, about 6th round).
I assume the Giants plan on signing Worley, then with remaining money, try to pick up one of the other HS draft picks. And they are likely backup picks in case they can’t sign Worley.
The Giants historically have signed almost every first to tenth round players (and so has most teams, teams don’t want to lose out), so it’s likely they will work to get Worley signed, but you never know with negotiations.