I read the news today, oh boy, about a lucky lad who made the grade: The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to the biggest MLB contract ever, 10 years at $700M. Saw some comments that some of it is deferred, but for payroll tax penalties, the only thing that matters is AAV, and that's $70M AAV.
ogc thoughts
Initial thoughts is that while I would have loved to have Ohtani in the lineup, that $70M AAV would take up over a third of the payroll. That reminded me of the problems the Giants had in the mid-1990's, while they had two stars in Barry Bonds and Matt Williams, they took up so much of the payroll that they had to skimp on the rest of the roster. I would rather spend the money on getting an ace pitcher(s).
And the Dodgers have big holes in their pitching rotation, which Yamamoto would have fixed nicely, but I would think that they have to be pushing up against whatever envelope for losing draft picks is. So I'm hoping they continue with their tendency to sign injured SP (like Giolitto) with the idea of finding starters for 162 games, and not 5 32-game starters. That gives me hope that the Giants can surpass them in the coming years, as they need more good pitching, not another good hitter in their lineup.
What This Means For the 2024 Giants
I just did a study, which I hope to publish soon, but basically the main gist is that the vast majority of teams that made the NL playoffs were the leaders in run prevention (that is, the Runs Allowed Leader teams). And very few teams that were only good at offense made the NL playoffs. In other words, if you are going to focus on hitting or pitching/fielding, it is over twice as good in making the playoffs by focusing on leading in pitching/fielding than on hitting alone.
The Giants in 2023 should have been among the leaders in run prevention if not for the poor defense, but still ended up a decent 6th. And the Giants should have been higher, because they had poor fielding in 2023, which hurt their run prevention: removing the fielding factor from their pitching stats, which xFIP does, would have placed them 2nd in the majors in 2023.
I see a lot of commentary that the Giants are no better under Zaidi. However, these fans have been missing the fact that the Giants under Zaidi has improved greatly in their RA and pitching performances (ranks are NL rankings), rising from near the bottom to near the top:
As one can see, the Giants, as the pre-Zaidi roster left the roster, he has been filling it with better pitchers, resulting in better RA, ERA, ERA+ and FIP, as well as rankings. So while fans are focused on the fact that the Giants have played around .500 the past two seasons, they have actually been a great pitching team, but have been hurt by a variety of factor, including poor hitting and poor fielding. And the great pitching should even be better in 2024, with Webb, Harrison, Beck, Winn, and Walker likely improving with experience and physical maturity.
Fix the Giants Fielding Defense
And one of the biggest difference between their ranking in ERA (which is their pitching) and RA, is the relatively poorer fielding that has been happening the past few seasons. Their RA only ranked 6th in 2023, but was 3rd in ERA and 1st in FIP. And that would have put them into the RA Leader ranks the past three seasons, if not for the errors causing unearned runs that boosted their RA above other teams, moving their rank from 3rd in ERA to 6th in RA.
That's why I've been advocating for the signing of Matt Chapman. He improves 3B overall because he provides similar offense to what JD Davis was providing there, while providing similar defense to what Casey Schmitt was providing there. It also buys time for Schmitt to work on this bat in AAA, while improving his defense at other positions, making him a more valuable utility player if the bat never develops, but supplying plus defense at multiple positions. He likely needs more than one year, given how poorly he hit, so hopefully he'll be ready to start around the time Chapman starts his decline.
That's probably also why Zaidi is clearly prioritizing CF defense in this offseason. They are clearly in on Jung Hoo Lee of Korea, who is known for his strong CF defense, which should translate with no problem, while hopefully he can be a good enough bat (or better), depending on how he adjusts to MLB pitching. There has also been rumors tying the Giants to Harrison Bader, who is known for his strong CF defense. I also like Kevin Keirmaier, though he's probably not being targeted by the Giants because of his age. Still, he's still very good defensively in CF.
And obtaining a good defensive CF improves the corners because Yaz and Slater would be playing there more, improving the defense there, which is already improved with the loss of Joc Pederson, who was very bad. Removing his, Matos, Davis, and Crawford's double digit negative DRS would push the Giants into the overall positive for the team, even if the new CF and 3B did not add any defensive value. Adding two good defenders there should push the Giants into the good defense category.
Your 2024 Giants Are Ready For Their Close Up
Overall, the Giants look to be in good position to be a RA Leader in 2024. Especially if they can seal the deal and sign an ace starting pitcher, like Yamamoto or Snell. And, if I'm being honest, I would prefer that they sign Jordan Montgomery over Blake Snell, as he could cost $5-10M less in AAV, while providing about the same WAR value produced, for although Snell pitches better overall, he also pitches much less innings.
But my ideal offseason is to sign Yoshinori Yamamoto (only 25 YO) to be our new ace starter and co-ace with Logan Webb. That would give us a rotation of Yamamoto, Webb, Harrison, and two of Stripling, DeSclafini, Beck, and Winn until Cobb is ready to pitch. That depth, and the need to let Stripling and/or DeSclafini show that they still have something so that we can trade them for a nice prospect once Cobb is ready, means the Giants can take their time making sure Cobb is ready to come in, fresh and ready to do well again, which would give us three aces in the rotation. That should keep our pitching staff elite.
With the starting rotation strong and with depth, we make it easier for them by improving the overall defense through signing Matt Chapman (so that our offense does not suffer from the change from Davis, while improving defense two wins from the change) and a good defensive CF, preferably Jung Hoo Lee, since he's only 25 YO (which should also add about two wins defensively, while keeping the offense about the same; plus improve defense in the corners since Yaz and Slater are that much better there).
I think that's a doable set of signings, and would probably cost less than the $70M being paid to Ohtani in AAV (The Athletic's estimates Yamamoto at 7 years/$203M or $29M AAV, Chapman at 5 years/$95M or $19M AAV, and Lee at 4 years/$56M or $14M AAV, for total of $62M AAV), unless the bidding goes crazy for Yamamoto, like it did for Ohtani, as most estimates were in the $500-600M range.
And these changes, even without adding a good bat, should be good enough to push the Giants into the mid-80's win range, which was good enough to make the playoffs in 2023, and likely 2024. Especially adding a staff ace like Yamamoto, he would just round out the rotation at the top, but if not him, then adding someone like Bellinger to improve the lineup should do the same for the team wins.
Improvements in pitching and fielding should push the team into the playoffs or close to it, much like the Giants in 2009, and if Harrison figures it out, more like the Giants in 2010. It's getting better all the time!
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