It was recently announced that Cobb will get hip surgery to fix the problem he had all season. The Giants have a buy-out option with Cobb for the 2024 season, they can buy him out for $2M or sign him to a $10M deal. Normally this would be obvious, given his performances the past two years, to sign him, but it is complicated by the fact that he likely will need six months to recover, which should take him out to at least the start of May, if not longer.
ogc thoughts
First off, it is still pretty obvious, at least to me, the Giants will pick up his option. He has been great the past two seasons for the Giants, another great pickup for Zaidi to keep the Giants team afloat while the team does a rebuild quietly. $10M is a bargain still, even if he can only pitch four months in the season, if he can repeat what he did before for the Giants. It is worth it for the possibility he returns and strengthens the rotation further.
Of course, he was only one of two reliable options at starting pitching in 2023, so normally this would be horrendous news. This is great for two huge reasons.
First of all, and most of all, it should mean he would be pitching with good health when he returns. And he has pitched above average (106 and 109 ERA+) for the past two seasons with this physical problem. The great thing about pitching staffs is that you can always add someone good, as there are always holes and weaknesses.
Second, the Giants have two pitchers DeSclafani and Stripling, who had bad seasons for us last year, and need the opportunity to show that they can pitch. Without Cobb, that opens up a rotation spot for the two to battle for next season. Not that there wasn't before Cobb's surgery, but it still means additional chances for them to pitch, that perhaps they won't.
Because the Giants have a good number of young pitchers who will be battling for starting rotation spots. First, barring injury or horrendous spring numbers (Brian Wilson had a sure spot once, and pitched his way back to the minors in Spring), Kyle Harrison should have a spot in the rotation, alongside Logan Webb, the only sure starter. ZiPS projected him for a mid-3's ERA for 2024, so not only should he be a regular starter, but he should be a good starter. Unfortunately, he hasn't put up a lot of IP in his seasons, so he likely will be kept on a short leash for the first half of 2024, much like 2023, build up his pitch count and IP.
Second, there are a number of prospects who could battle for a spot. In the majors, both Beck and Winn pitched well enough to be considered strong contenders for starting spots. Both had ERA and/or FIP that were around 4 ERA, which is about average for the majors. They should be strong contenders for starting rotation spots. Less likely, but still in the mix, are pitching prospects like Whisenhunt, Roupp, Black, and Birdsong.
On top of that, the Giants have already said that they are looking to add to the top of their rotation. And Yamamoto is on the top of their list. And there are others like Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, and others, who the Giant could potentially pursue.
That's a lot of competitors for the starting rotation, though many of the prospects are hindered by the lack of IP stamina, right now, and, of course, it is easier said than done that the Giants even sign any of the free agents (though the Giants are reportedly not going to be outbid for Yamamoto). Cobb would have automatically been part of the rotation and gotten starts in spring training, but with him likely out and recovering, that opens up starts for the other contenders to use, like DeSclafani and Stripling.
And why I'm keying on them is two-fold. Both can possibly rebound to be as good as they were when the Giants signed them. Hopefully, last season was just an aberration. Either way, with so many possible viable competitors for the rotation, having Cobb out of the way gives one or both of them more opportunities to show that they have returned to their prior goodness. And that would make them tradeable assets.
Thus, the silver lining of Cobb being out of the rotation early on. That gives the two opportunities to join the rotation and maybe even do well enough that they hold the fort until Cobb returns. At which point, roughly mid-season, prime for trades, hopefully Zaidi can offload one or both of them. And given the young pitchers probable need to be limited on IP for the season, the Giants could keep them simmering in the minors early on, let these two prove to be trade worthy, and trade them mid season, there will always be teams looking for good arms for their rotation.
And who knows, maybe the Giants will still need the two of them even at the trade deadline. Young prospects don't always keep performing well. Injuries happen.
But still, more likely, Cobb returns healthy. And hopefully enough of the young pitchers prove good enough to hold rotation spots, especially if the Giants get another ace via free agency, as that would be free agent ace, Webb, Cobb, Harrison, plus the 4th and maybe 5th starters. I think it's pretty likely that one can hold a spot, meaning 4th, reliably (I'm thinking Beck), and then the Giants can either go with openers for the 5th or try out the young starters until one sticks. The goal is simply to get into the playoffs, they aren't ready yet to compete regularly or deep yet. Then the Giants could trade those two for prospects. That's how we got Beck.
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