Thursday, June 15, 2017

2017 Giants Draft Picks

The Giants drafted the following players (link will change every year, so below is the final results):

2017 Giants Draft Picks (slot) 
1. HELIOT RAMOS ($3.1M)
2. JACOB GONZALEZ ($1.1M)
3. SETH CORRY ($558.5K)
4. GARRETT CAVE ($417.2K)
5. JASON BAHR ($310.8K)
6. BRYCE JOHNSON ($239.6K)
7. LOGAN HARASTA ($187.8K)
8. JOHN GAVIN ($154.2K)
9. AARON PHILLIPS ($140.0K)
10. ROB CALABRESE ($132.5K)
11. DOUG STILL
12. AARON BOND
13. TYLER SCHIMPF
14. MICHAEL SEXTON
15. ORLANDO GARCIA
16. JOHN RUSSELL
17. BRAC WARREN
18. CHRIS CORBETT
19. FRANKIE TOSTADO
20. KEATON WINN
21. LOGAN BALDWIN
22. GREG JACKNEWITZ
23. SHANE MATHENY
24. NICO GIARRATANO
25. FRANKLIN VAN GURP
26. KYLE McPHERSON
27. MATT BROWN
28. PETER LANNOO
29. FRANK RUBIO
30. SEAN WATKINS
31. KEENAN BARTLETT
32. BLAKE RIVERA
33. PEYTON MADDOX
34. CONNOR NURSE
35. DALTON COMBS
36. JOE MARCIANO
37. ANDY ROHLOFF
38. ANTONIO SALDANA
39. BRAD DOBZANSKI
40. LIAM JENKINS

Ramos has reportedly been signed already, and Gonzalez's dad has announced that he's signing and starting his career.

Draftee Scouting Reports

I don't have time to compile information and give my opinion on the top three draftees, but here is the info from the draft link I provided above (and there are videos as well, if you are interested) for the picks that they have info for:

Heliot Ramos

The Puerto Rican amateur baseball scene has grown in recent years, though the impact it's had on the Draft has been up and down. There was the boon of 2012, with Carlos Correa going No. 1 and Jose Berrios also landing in the first round. The island didn't return to the first round until 2016, when Delvin Perez led a strong contingent of prospects. This year, there is consensus that Ramos is the top talent in Puerto Rico, but there is some division over just how good of a prospect he is. There is no question that Ramos has a big, strong athletic build and has legitimate power potential. It's after that the debate begins. Those who really like him see a solid hit tool and the ability to tap into that raw power consistently, keeping the barrel of the bat in the zone a long time and creating backspin. Others question the bat speed a bit more and wonder if he can turn on balls enough to reach that power. Ramos plays center field now with an average arm and speed that is a tick above average but many see a move to a corner, most likely left, in his future. Ramos is a bit of a polarizing prospect, one who some scouts see going as early as the Competitive Balance Round, with others seeing more as a second-round kind of option. Whatever the case, he's sure to be the first from Puerto Rico to hear his name called.

Jacob Gonzalez

Chaparral High School in Arizona has produced a fair share of corner infielder types with power, guys like Ike Davis and Paul Konerko. Gonzalez, the son of former big leaguer Luis Gonzalez, has the kind of pop to join that illustrious group. Gonzalez's standout tool is definitely his power, and he has as much raw pop as perhaps any high school bat in the country. He hasn't always been good about consistently reaching it, but during his senior season, he has impressed some scouts with a new-found ability to make adjsutments. He's shown the ability to stay back and take breaking stuff the other way and do damage with two strikes, things he hadn't done at the plate well in the past. He's a below-average runner, though he's not a clogger. While he has some arm strength, his arm action is a bit funky. That, plus a fringy glove, likely moves him to first base in the future. It can be tough for a right-handed first baseman to profile well at the position, but Gonzalez has the power potential to buck that trend. His pop, along with those MLB bloodlines, could very well get the TCU commit off the board in the top four rounds.

Seth Corry

When the 2017 spring high school season began, Corry jumped on the radar with a very strong start to his senior campaign. He hasn't backed that up with consistent performances, but the glimpses of very good stuff from the left side could be enough to entice teams to draft him early. At times, Corry has been lights out, resembling a young Matt Moore type. He has good, but raw stuff. He'll consistently sit in the 90-92 mph range, touching 94 mph on occasion. His best pitch is his curve, thrown 78-79 mph, which he spins well and uses to miss bats. Corry does have good feel for a changeup as well, and it could eventually be an average pitch. His problem is getting to his secondary stuff as poor fastball command hasn't allowed him to get ahead to use the breaking ball to put hitters away consistently. Corry, a BYU commit, is a terrific athlete on the mound, one who played free safety on his football team. He brings that type of mentality to the diamond, which could further attract teams willing to be patient in helping him command his fastball. Two players have previously been drafted out of Lone Peak High School, both in the 48th round. Corry is sure to beat that by plenty, and not just because the Draft is now capped at 40 rounds.

Garrett Cave

Cave began his college career at Florida International, struggling there for two years, especially as a starter during his sophomore season. He starred in the Cape Cod League as a closer last summer, ahead of his transfer to Division II Tampa, where he has continued to show off tremendous arm strength. The 6-foot-4 right-hander shows a premium fastball that typically touches 97-98 mph, and he's been able to maintain his velocity even as a starter this spring for Tampa. He throws two breaking balls, with his power 86-88 mph slider a better option than his 80-82 mph curveball, though he'll throw the latter more often. He does have a changeup, but it's well behind the other three pitches. Command has always been an issue for Cave, even when he threw well out of the bullpen on the Cape. It's why many evaluators think a full-time return to a relief role makes the most sense at the next level, though there are some teams who might be willing to send him out as a starter to see if he can refine his delivery and control. But with his power stuff, if he can find the strike zone a bit more consistently, he has big league closer potential.

Bryce Johnson

A three-year starter at Sam Houston State, Johnson is one of the better athletes and up-the-middle defenders in a college crop light in those areas. He has improved his numbers each season with the Bearkats, taking up switch-hitting as a sophomore in 2016 and reeling off a 46-game on-base streak. Johnson's game centers around his speed, which draws well-above-average grades from some evaluators. He uses it well on the bases, where he ranked seventh in NCAA Division I with 30 steals entering the regional playoffs, and in center field. He chases down balls from gap to gap and has a knack for throwing out runners with his average arm. Johnson employs more of a contact approach from the left side of the plate and shows more feel for hitting and drives the ball better from his natural right side, albeit with little home run power. He understands that his role is to be a tablesetter and accrues a healthy amount of walks and hit-by-pitches. If he can get more consistent with his swing, he could bat near the top of a pro lineup.

ogc thoughts

What's not to like?  I've given up, mostly, about whether I like drafts or not.  Was excited over Lincecum and Brown, not so much over Bumgarner (though excited that Sabean said that they expected him to make the majors in a couple of seasons, which he did) and Wheeler (what was not to like about Posey? :).  It just seems futile to me to argue against anyone.  Sure, some are better than others, but, on the whole, most of them will fail to even make the majors for more than a cup of coffee (see Gary Brown).  But I'll share some thoughts.

As usual, the Giants pick a ton of pitchers:  24 of the 40 picks were pitchers.  More unusual was that they drafted two position players with their 1st and 2nd round picks, and that they selected high school prospects with their first three picks.  Under Sabean, almost every first round pick was a pitcher, and since Barr took over the draft, it has been roughly 50/50, pitchers and position players.

This reminded me of the 2013 draft when they selected Arroyo and Ryder, two high school position players.  The Giants have mostly selected college players with their first 10 round picks:  one year, prospect hounds went crazy when the Giants didn't select a high school player at all, and they went even crazier when I told them that it didn't really matter, in the whole, because the odds of any of those later round picks becoming a good player was slim to none (and mostly none).

Given that the Giants focus more on college prospects, it was even more surprising that the top 3 picks were all high school prospects.   And a high school pitcher, at that, they are rarely drafted by the Giants in the higher rounds.

It appears, to my eyes, that the Giants have been drafting a lot of power prospects in recent years - Ramos, Shaw, Williamson, Parker, others - in hopes of landing that one big slugger.   I thought Belt might have been that slugger, but he just never developed enough of that power he showed at the beginning.  But with high schoolers topping the bill for this draft, it will be a while before we see any fruit from this draft, we'll be into the 2020's by the time they might be starting to be ready for the spotlight.

Barr Thoughts

Barr was interviewed about the draft and he noted that, like all teams, they don't draft for need, so it was just a coincidence that they got OF the last two drafts (Reynolds and Ramos).   He noted that sometimes a college draft is depleted due to a lot of talent being signed for that draft year three years prior when they were high school seniors.  Hence why some years the Giants end up picking up more high school players.

There also was a nice interview on the Giants website.   Barr noted that the Giants are using the latest and greatest in analytics tools, like spin rate (for a pitch) and exit velocity (off the bat).   It noted that San Francisco selected 18 right-handed pitchers, six left-handed pitchers, three catchers, six infielders and seven outfielders (six high schoolers, 34 college players) during the three-day draft.  And the last time they drafted 3 high school players first was in 2007 (Bumgarner, Alderson, Fairley).   And they apparently drafted a large number of "Giants", with ten of the pitchers 6' 4" and taller, including one 6' 8" and one 6' 7".

8 comments:

  1. Of the top 25, only four--Gavin, Still, Warren, and Winn--remain unsigned, apparently. I suppose that this influx of talent into the farm system, making deals easier, will begin to help us recover from the strange, unshakable humiliations of the past year, i.e., since the A-S break 2016. God knows, we are likely to have a prime draft position and a huge pot of money to spend on draftees next year!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Typical Giants haul, signing most of their top picks, but it seems better than usual, getting 21 of the top 25. Would have to check to be sure.

      Two interesting signings: Aaron Bond for $125,000 (12th round pick) and Orlando Garcia also for $125,000 (15th round pick). Uses up $50,000 of the 5% margin above their slots before penalties.

      Also interesting, Seth Corry almost got double his slot, in fact, he ended up signing for more than Jacob Gonzalez did. Of course, Corry was rated above Gonzalez per MLB Pipeline, 105th vs. 125th.

      Both Ramos and Gonzalez continue the trend under Sabean of drafting way ahead of ranking, Ramos 19th but 40th rank, Gonzalez 58th but 125th ranking.

      Corry, Cave, and Johnson continue the trend under Barr of drafting players higher ranked around the draft pick, and in some cases, guys who fell a lot, like Cave, ranked 88th, better than Gonzalez and Corry, but selected after them, with 126th pick.

      Warren is another amateur to fall a lot, he was good enough to get a profile blurb of a scouting report, something that petered out after around the 200 top ranked players. He was selected with pick 516.

      Delete
    2. Frankly, as I told people at other sites, the draft is such a huge crapshoot, but yeah, I guess it does fill the farm system some with tradeable pieces. We are getting a lot of relievers, perhaps the Giants might be trading some to the right teams willing to give up really good pieces for them.

      Like Dyson, if he can return to closer goodness, he could bring in a nice haul. Though having him as set up for the rest of Melancon's contract would be great too. Perhaps that frees the Giants up to trade Strickland, who got Morse concussed (luckily it wasn't the other way around with the Shark out with a concussion. Also Kontos might bring a pretty prospect as well, as well as Guerrin.

      Nunez probably will be a traded piece who might return next year via free agency. And I don't see how Cueto will stick around with this season and teams needing a good to great starter, and who has already been rumored to have said that he was opting out, no matter what.

      Together with these trades, and the draft, the Giants will have a nice infusion of talent that will help them rebuild while reloading.

      The problem is our hitters have not been hitting well enough, overall, so maybe we'll be picking up someone next season. Which probably means an OF will be going, either Span or Pence.

      Delete
    3. On the $125,000 signings where you are surprised to see the Giants over slot, ogc: these later drafts had a $100,000 slot till this year, but it's $125K this year, I believe. These signings are at slot. As to the number signed, Warren and Winn I believe remain unsigned, but Still has now signed, and the press reported that Gavin was ecstatic to have been drafted by the Giants--he's a lifelong Giants fan--so I'd imagine we'll see him signed shortly. Going by the reports, we should now have 26 out of the first 28 draftees signed or (Gavin) on the verge of doing so.

      Delete
    4. First, thank you for updating me on the new max without penalty amount starting with round 11. I missed that! And appreciate your bringing it up.

      I guess my point is that it is significant when the Giants sign anyone starting with round 11 at the max without penalty, and so I wanted to point them out as prospects to watch going forward.

      I agree that Gavin will sign for those reasons. From what I recall, he is busy with college World Series right now, which is why he hasn't signed yet. I think the same happened with Beede too.

      Thanks again.

      Delete
  2. Top 28 all signed, save for one. Four more signed of the remaining dozen. That record gives one the sense that the Giants got pretty much everyone that they cared to get.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the update!

      Looking at the link, got another update, the Giants signed RHP Connor Nurse for $250K. He's not ranked, but Daryl Zero posted Nurse's Perfect Game article which was pretty interesting, he worked with John Denny, who was his coach, and who was a former major leaguer for the Cards, Phillies, among other teams. Won Cy Young once, even.

      Good guy to learn from, Denny was decidedly a pitch to poor contact type of pitcher, much in the mold of Matt Cain. Once he figured out how to do that in the majors, he had a .275 BABIP over 9 seasons.

      Denny was kind of wild, with high BB/9, but that probably means that he pitched like Rueter did, biting at the corners in order to induce poor contact, but getting a lot of balls called, and not that many strikeouts, even for that era. But he had a 3.46 ERA over that period, 108 ERA+, which is good, but not great.

      The key is whether Nurse learned to pitch like that, while retaining the ability to blow away hitters with his fastball/curve combo, as his curve is considered to be good enough to be a hammer. We'll see what the Giants can do with him, but I'm pretty excited about getting him.

      The only question I have is, since he seems like a good prospect, and even got $250,000, why he was not ranked on Baseball America's Top 500 rank. $250K would put him around the end of the fifth round in terms of slot money, which would put him in the Top 175 in terms of talent, if bonus paid represented talent (which one would hope there is some correlation). Perhaps the Giants saw something others did not. We'll see.

      The only other draftee past the 10th round to get more than the $125K was Frank Tostado, round 19, RF.

      Delete
    2. Nurse also appears to be on the younger side for his class, which according to a draft study by BP, tends to outperform (but, of course, the study was only of top drafted prospects, not prospects like Nurse who wasn't ranked nor was drafted high, just higher than expected).

      Delete

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