Tuesday, June 21, 2016

2016 Draft: Giants Make Up For Loss of First Round Pick

This is probably the first draft in a decade where I didn't prepare by capturing mock drafts, know exactly when I need to start monitoring the draft, and follow along in some way, whether radio, internet, social media, or some combination.  Part of it was the loss of the first round pick for signing Samardzija.  Part of it was just a lot of overtime for work.  Part of it was feeling pretty good about our crop of prospects.   Mostly, I guess it was too much a combination of life intruding on my blog life, just didn't really have time for it this year.

The MLB has their usual list, available here.  Tops picks are (links are to the MLB videos):

ogc thoughts

The feelings about the draft is that the Giants had as good a draft as they could had they not lost their first round pick.  Out of the BA 500, the Giants ended up picking up 15 of them; if split among the 30 teams, the average would be 16-17.  However, the Giants ended up selecting 4 of the top 90 (average 30), so they got quality in the draft, they only lost out at the far end.  In fact, the 15 were selected from the Top 411, albeit skewing to the two ends (four of them in the 400's).

This is another sign of a John Barr draft.  Reynolds we got with the 59th pick.  But he was 31st in the BA 500, and they had him 17th in the March BA 100, and 11th in the BA 100 College in January.  MLB had him 23rd in their Top 200.  Krook was only 87th in the BA 500  (similarly, 92nd per MLB Top 20;  he was the 125th pick overall), but 18th in the March BA 100, and 9th in the BA 100 College in January.  That's similar to Crawford, who was a Top 10 in the pre-season but fell a lot because he didn't perform as expected in his junior year.   And we basically picked up two of them with Reynolds and Krook. 

Thoughts on Krook and Reynolds

Now, I have a few ideas on what Krook did (or didn't do) to fall so much.  Part of it was that he is getting over the TJS surgery that he had two years ago, this is his first season back.  Mostly, though, he has huge issues with command, which would be a deadly issue (see Crick) if he can never figure it out.  I guess it was bad enough that teams just didn't want to deal with it.  But he was good enough as a high schooler to be drafted 35th overall (I actually remember his name!) and most pre-season rankings put him high up in talent, so clearly the Giants are hoping to help him back to health and get his command straightened out.  The Giants can't fix everyone, but they at least have some experience and success.    Excellent pick.

Reynolds also had issues, though he was still highly regarded when the draft happened, as the BA 500 had him 31st, and he made it into a number of the mock drafts which covered the first 34 picks, covering the first round and the supplemental first round picks.  The scuttlebutt I got from reading is that his problems with striking out spooked a lot of teams (or really, all the teams other than the Giants) as he fell deep into the second round, meaning most teams passed on him at least twice already before the Giants picked him.  But he did things the Giants like a lot (Cape Cod; collegiate national team; led Vanderbilt offensively to World Series), and while he didn't have any standout tool, is good in a number of areas.  And if they get him to hit reduce his strikeouts, he'll be a very solid player, which is all we need when we have players like Posey, Belt, Crawford, Panik, and Duffy in the lineup.  Another excellent pick.  

Slot Thoughts

The Giants bonus pool was just short of $3.495M, and with the 5% max overslot allowed, that is nearly $175K that the Giants can go over.  They have already signed Quinn for slot, and Krook for slightly over, at exactly $500K.   They signed both Howard and Barengar to much lower deals, most likely negotiated beforehand, and together the Giants saved nearly $146K against the bonus slots that they can now spend on getting Reynolds and other draftees like Brusa, Heyward, Williams.   Altogether, the Giants currently have almost $390K to play with in terms of overslot bonuses.

A good chunk will probably go to Reynolds.  His pick is slotted for $1.090M.  Had he been selected 31st, as per his BA 500 ranking, he would have been slotted for almost $2M.  Depending on how important it is to him to get what he might have gotten (or even what he thinks he should have gotten; remember, that is how we got Lincecum, he thought he was worth $1M but the Indians only went to $400K in the draft before us getting him).   

Not sure how it will go with signing Reynolds.  Thus far, both Quinn and Krook took roughly slot to sign, they did not insist on what might have been (Krook got a little bump up, people just love round significant numbers).  The counter to that is that while Mac Williamson was a huge overdraft, he held out for slot, and eventually the Giants yielded (they were probably hoping to save money on him in order to sign one of the 30's round draftees, which seem to be their M.O. under the current draft rules).  I'm only pretty sure that the Giants will sign him, because they haven't missed on anyone in the first ten rounds in a long time (can't remember the last one not to sign), just not sure to what.  Anyone have any thoughts?

I'm probably going to write up Reynolds and Krook when I get the chance to, but, again, been busy, so it'll be a while.  Plus, may as well wait for Reynolds to sign before spending the time writing him up.  I might get to Quinn at some point, but I'm leaning towards the two above because both were ranked highly at some point, whereas Quinn has been no higher than 48th in any of the lists I found him in.  

5 comments:

  1. Of course, I missed three new signings today.

    Gio Brusa and Alex Bostic both signed for slot, while Stephen Woods signed for $200,000, above his slot. Wood was actually drafted early, relative to his BA 500 ranking.

    That leaves us $367K to spend on other signings. Reynolds and Williams are the only two slots left to be signed. Williams is still on a team pursing the college world series, so he can't sign yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And Reynolds has signed, also above slot.

      Delete
    2. Getting him takes away another $207K.

      Delete
    3. Thanks, been busy. Callus reported $1.35M vs $1.09M, if memory serves, which is $260K.

      If that is correct, that leaves $106K.

      Darryl Zero noted it looks like Heyward is leaving school plus retweeted Greenwalt talking about becoming pro, getting college money, which is outside of bonuses, plus some bonus too.

      Delete
    4. Oops $107K, I meant.

      Looking like this is going to be a good draft, even without considering that we didn't have a first rounder nor a supplemental first rounder.

      Delete

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