Your 2016 Giants: When Projections Go Wrong: Pence

I thought I would look into Hunter Pence's projections because they were off so much when I looked at them.

ogc thoughts

Projections are good when looking at the whole major leagues, but you need to know when to bend the rules when it comes to individual players.  Because, when it comes to projections, they are like a casino:  they are playing the averages in order to come ahead, overall, at the end.  But sometimes projections go awry because of this.

Take, for example, Hunter Pence.

Pence 2013

In 2012, he had a down season overall, producing only 1.7 WAR that season, after producing 5.4 WAR the season before, and averaging 3.7 WAR per 650 PA up to that season and 3.9 WAR per 650 PA for the three years before that season.  Because of that, ZiPS projected his 30 YO season in 2013 to be 2.1 zWAR with a zwOBA of .316.  Whereas, had he been a free agent after the 2011 season, he would have been assumed to produce 4.9 WAR in 2012, and 4.4 WAR in 2013, per the way free agent signings are done.  In 2013, he produced 5.5 bWAR with a wOBA of .356 or (5.2 WAR/650PA).

Pence 2014

For 2014, ZiPS projected 2.6 zWAR and .325 zwOBA, with 2012 again damaging his projections, along with him moving into his 30's.  However, instead, he produced 4.7 bWAR with .341 wOBA (4.3 WAR/650PA).

Pence 2015

For 2015, ZiPS projected 2.5 zWAR and .327 zwOBA.  And this is where the system helps out, it assumes an average injury rate over time, dampening the projections over time to account for seasons like this one where he was injured.  He only produced 1.6 bWAR, though at only 223 PA, he was producing at roughly a 4.7 WAR/650 PA pace.   And he had a .347 wOBA, which was in line with the last two seasons.

Pence 2016

Hence why I take Pence's 1.9 zWAR projection at .329 zwOBA with a big pinch of salt.  Not because the system is bad, it is doing what it is suppose to be doing, reducing the residuals across a large sample so that their projections overall minimizes the errors across all those players, especially for players over 30 YO.  But because our goal is not to average across so many players but to see what is probable for any player when looking at any particular player.

Over the past three seasons, Pence has averaged 4.7 WAR/650PA, which is the pace he produced last season.  He is now 33 YO, so one would expect some sort of decline, but one of the great things about him is that he takes great care of his body, as he knows that his team, and his fans, expect him to be at his best.   Even if we take 0.5 WAR the low rate of the past three seasons, that would leave him at 3.8  WAR, or roughly double what his projection is (which does take into account some injury, due to 2015, projecting 485 PA, for a 2.5 WAR/650PA rate).  0.5 off his average would put him at 4.2 WAR.  And if he continues to produce like he has the past few years (except for 2012), he would be at 4.7 WAR.