Thursday, September 03, 2015

Your 2015 Giants: Playoff Hopes Swept Away For Most

My thoughts following horrendous sweep by The Evil Ones (tm).
ogc thoughts

As a baseball fan, this was a great series.   Two good teams, hobbled by injuries, both giving their best, close tight games in each game, four really good starting pitching performances, almost a fifth until he gave up all those homers, stalwart relief pitching.  I only wish that umpires (cough, Mike Winters) didn't interfere with the games (and, to be fair, he didn't cost us any game, just cost us the chance to see what should have happened).

Unfortunately, as per the results of said great series, I'm a Giants fan:  6.5 games back!  And by the Dusty rule of thumb - gaining one game a week in the standings is a doable goal - we have 4.5 weeks of baseball left which would leave us short 2 games in the standing.  We also happen to be 6.5 games behind in the Wild Card chase as well, but are also behind the Mets by 5.0 games, so it's probably best to focus on the NL West for now, and wait for the dust to settle in the Wild Card.

As I tweeted afterward, while the opera singer has cleared her throat, getting ready to sing, she hasn't sung yet.  For one thing, LA, not that long ago, lost 5 games in a row, and that included two against the lowly A's, now 18 games below .500.  So they could start losing again.  They have been wildly inconsistent, like the Giants have been, all season:  they both win and lose in streaks.

However, the Dodgers have been beating up on SD, AZ, and COL in the 2015 season and they play them in 19 of their remaining 30 games.  But so did the Giants with the Dodgers earlier (9-3 before the sweep), and while not killer, SD and AZ has been around .500 for at least a month now, only COL has been tanking.

Giants Slight Schedule Advantage

We have slight advantage in schedule.  They play 7 games with SD and AZ, 6 with COL, 4 with Giants, plus 3 with Pirates (at home though; Pirates .500 on road) and Angels (Angels are pretty good at home; LAD not so good on road, and they got 17 on the road).   If they play at same rates at home and on road, they end up 16-14, which would put them at 91-71, which means the Giants need to be 22-7, which is a pretty tall order as they have only won at that rate when Pence was in the lineup (with the main regulars).

The Giants got 7 with COL, 6 with SD and AZ, 4 with LAD, 3 with CIN (horrible on the road, really bad last month 8-22; LA went 1-6 against them recently) and OAK (bad at home, 31-38 there, 34-41 against winning teams).  We have more games against struggling teams (COL, CIN, OAK) and more home games (16 at home, 13 left on the road).   But that puts us at roughly 15-14, though, obviously, we cannot play at seasonal rates if we hope to get into the playoffs.

Where the Dodgers have the advantage is that they have beat up on SD, AZ, COL, whereas the Giants have been .500 roughly.  Dodgers are 26-11 against them, the Giants have been under .500, 18-20.  That's the whole difference between their two records, if Dodgers were .500 instead (19-18), they would be behind the Giants by 0.5 games.

What It Will Take

Obviously, a lot of winning.  They have 13 games with COL, CIN, OAK, 4 series.  They really need to go 10-3, winning each series, sweeping the Reds like what the Dodgers did.  That gets them to 79-67.   If they play .500 with AZ and SD in remaining games, that puts them at 85-73, leaving the need to sweep the Dodgers in the remaining four games just to reach 89-73.   Thus, the Giants need to not go 6-6 against AZ and SD, if they can get to 8-4 (which basically means that they need to win every road series with them), that would get them to 91-71.

And that shows the enormity of what the sweep caused.  The Giants basically need to win every series going forward plus then need to sweep the Dodgers, in order to reach 91 wins and be in the ballpark in terms of just tying the Dodgers for the NL West lead (though that should mean the Giants get the title, because then they would have the better head-to-head record).   Lose any series, and they will need to sweep another series to make up for that.

No matter how you look at it, we will need a lot of help.  First off, AZ, SD, and COL will need to play LAD to roughly .500, instead of the lopsided record of the season.  If LAD wins at that high rate, the Giants are toast, no if's, and's or but's.  Second, it would be nice if the Pirates and Angels can win their series.  If they can do that, the Dodgers are 87-71 (12-14) with the 4 games with the Giants.  That's against 85-73 for the Giants in the other games.  In this extreme case, all the best for Giants, positive for the Giants results for LAD, then the Giants "only" needs to win 3 of 4 to tie the Dodgers for NL West lead.

So while the opera singer has not sung yet, she is clearing her throat, the above scenarios require a lot of good play on the Giants part, something they have been unable to consistently do without Pence in the lineup.  But 30 games is still a lot of games to play.  The Dodgers have been 14-16 over a 30 game period a few times this season.  That would put them at 89 wins, which is still tough, but slightly more doable.

Another good thing for the Giants is that the Dodgers are relying on Latos and Wood in the 4/5 rotation slots (4-6 Dodger record, 4.80 ERA).  And Anderson has a 4.15 ERA over the past two months, and 5.02 ERA over his last 5 starts.  Kershaw and Greinke "only" got 12 starts left (and that's if LA manipulates the rotation to get Kershaw one more start at the end of the season - bet on it though) meaning the other starters got 17 starts.

And can Kershaw and Greinke keep up a 1.50 or less ERA for another month?  Greinke has done it all season, so yeah there, Kershaw has been like that since the end of May, so double yeah (Oy!).   They have averaged 3.77 RS since the start of July, that makes them 10-2 in their starts, meaning they can be 6-11 with the other guys to reach 91 wins (the other 3 starters would need to go 5.28 RA for that to happen).

So there are some possibilities for positive results for the Giants, but not a lot, lots of ways this can go sideways quickly.

Bleak Prospects

And really, the season is now going to be going game by game, series by series.  There will be huge swings in hope and despair, going game by game, series by series.  This 10 game road trip (facing Angels in there) for LA is our big hope right now to make up some ground, but we got 7 on the road ourselves, and thus need to take care of COL and AZ ourselves.  For now, we are reduced to the Giants announcers talking about how other teams have failed in the past, about how we need to only focus on winning that day's game, nothing more.  And that's the awful truth.

Go Giants!

2 comments:

  1. I would not be surprised if the giants finished more than 10 games back, and perhaps find trouble holding on to second place. I hope they all invest in some high definition large screen televisions so they can figure out how to hit some of the pitchers in the playoffs, and perhaps some of the lesser talented pitchers. In the last few weeks, Duffy despite getting his share of hits, has gotten a case of double play itis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would be surprised if the Giants finished more than 10 games back and not hold onto second place. LA has not played that well through the whole season. They have been as up and down as the Giants have been, and while the Giants have been beset by injuries to almost the whole roster, I'm not aware that as many has hit the Dodgers. I think as long as Bumgarner, Leake, and Peavy continues to pitch well enough, we will get our share of wins in the remaining games, as there will be less road games and most of the teams we face will be not that good. As pitching generally should help us beat these lesser teams.

      Not sure what you mean by TVs, as it seems to refer to the Dodgers, and I would not hope that LA will figure out how to hit. I hope they flop in the first round again, then the Giants sign away Kershaw from them, and have him say that he wants to be with a winner. :^)

      Duffy is getting tired. He was a stick before, and even if he added weight over the winter, I doubt he built up that much stamina just like that. The good news is he'll have another off-season to build up, plus the trainers will be helping the starting 3B this off-season. But that tiredness probably affects his speed and is resulting in more grounders and more double plays as he'll be slower too.

      Delete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (2) 2017 Giants (16) 25 man roster (10) 25th man fallacy (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (8) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (3) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) Albert Suarez (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (19) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Suarez (2) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (17) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Slater (1) Award (4) BABIP (3) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (3) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (6) Baseball Study (17) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (8) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (1) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (2) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (47) Brandon Crawford (24) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (45) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (29) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (2) Bullpen (29) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (98) Byran Reynolds (1) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (2) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (18) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (2) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (11) Christian Arroyo (6) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (8) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (6) core competency (1) Cory Gearrin (2) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (15) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (2) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (11) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (2) depth (1) Derek Law (8) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (2) dodgers (12) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (7) Draft Analysis (15) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (2) draft philosophy (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) DRS (1) Dynasty (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (2) extension (7) fan outrage (1) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) felony conviction (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (7) Free agent possibilities (20) Free agent signing (13) Free agent signings (21) front office (1) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (8) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Defense (1) Giants Draft (11) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (32) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (64) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (27) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (3) Giants Strategy (35) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (15) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (9) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (11) Heliot Ramos (1) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (17) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (23) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (4) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) injury (3) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (4) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jalen Miller (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (8) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (15) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (14) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (16) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Johnson (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (5) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julio Urias (1) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (4) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (15) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (3) Lineup position (1) links (1) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (1) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (8) Madison Bumgarner (166) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (4) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Melancon (1) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (155) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (1) Matt Moore (9) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (16) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (2) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (7) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (1) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (23) NL West Division Title (17) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (2) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opening Day (5) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (9) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (2) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (92) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (10) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (19) Pitching Rotation (73) pitching staff (5) plate discipline (1) platoon players (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (35) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (5) Playoff Success (21) Playoffs (40) postmortem (1) PQS (93) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (4) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (44) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) Reyes Moronta (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rockies (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (1) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (6) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (4) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) secret sauce (1) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (1) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) splits (2) Spring Training (16) standings (1) starting lineup (18) starting pitching (72) Statcorner (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Steroids (6) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (7) strikeout rate (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (1) Team of the Decade (3) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (194) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (11) Trade Analysis (17) Trade Idea (8) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (4) turning point (1) Ty Blach (9) Tyler Beede (6) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (3) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (1) World Series (26) World Series Champions (11) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Wheeler (9) ZiPS (1)