Monday, September 08, 2014

Your 2014 Giants: 29th Rotational Turn

The Giants 29th Rotation PQS analysis.

ogc thoughts

29th Rotation Turn

After a great 28th turn with 5 DOM starts leading to 5 wins, the 29th turn returned to the unsteady performances of six of the past seven turns.  This is not what we need to win the division, though at the moment, barring two of the three remaining teams competing for a wild card getting white hot, it should be enough to get us to the wild card game, where, unless the other team is throwing a back of rotation guy out there, it's probably two good pitchers going up against each other, making the game a coin toss.  At least the Giants are in the lead for that right now, and going 3-2 is still good.

The Dodgers unfortunately kept up with us and their division lead stayed at 2 games this whole turn.  They won when we won, they lost when we lost.  But time and games are running out, and with LA throwing their top pitchers against us in the series coming up at home - with Ryu, Greinke, and Kershaw going up against Bumgarner, Hudson, Petit - it will not be easy.  As I noted in my post on our Ace, Bumgarner, he has a must win game against LA, because if he wins, we only need to win one of the remaining two, but if he loses, we need to win the other two, including winning against Kershaw, who has an amazing career record against us, he's a Giants killer for sure.

Bumgarner and Peavy had DOM starts in this turn, with the team winning both games.  Petit actually had a DIS start but it was a Coors' type of game, so the offense came back and won the game as the bullpen held off the Rockies.  Hudson and Vogie had MID games and the Giants lost both of those games.

Hudson continued his decline in PQS performance that he has had this season.  In his first 15 starts (that counted for my PQS analysis), 9 DOM and only 1 DIS start (60% DOM and 7% DIS).  The Giants went 9-6.  In the 11 starts since:  3 DOM and 2 DIS, or 33% DOM and 22% DIS, the Giants went 5-6.

Peavy continued to dominate:  6 DOM, 1 DIS in 8 starts or 75% DOM and 13% DIS, both great figures.  Unfortunately, the offense was not up to this and the team only went 4-4 in his starts so far, though 4-1 in his last five, so things are certainly picking up.

Thoughts on Pennant and Playoff Race

With a 3 game lead over the Brewers (whom the Cards passed up) in the Wild Card race, the Giants are comfortably in the lead there, with a 4 game lead over the Braves, but as we saw earlier this season with our big NL West lead, things can sure change in a hurry.  Plus, in any case, at 2 games back at this point in time, no reason to give up trying to win the division title with so many games (21 games, again, at this point in time) left and so many games left against the Dodgers (though Ryu, 4-1 with 2.76 ERA in SF; Greinke 1-0 with 2.19 ERA in SF; and Kershaw 7-2 with 0.76 ERA in SF - wow, how did we win two with that ERA?).  

At this point, the Giants just need to win every game and see how the division standings end up.  Jumping into the next rotation turn and into the present, we are done with non-NL West teams and play the remaining 19 games against NL West foes, including 6 against LA, but are now 3 games back.  

We lost a game in the standings because the D-backs flopped for the Dodgers, getting swept easily by LA in LA, they hardly scored much and had only one well pitched game.  Moreover, they went 4-15 against LA.  Hopefully they flop as big against us, with Petit, Vogie, and Peavy starting for us.   They are 5-8 against us at the moment, and to get close to matching the Dodgers, we would need to sweep the six games.  I think we need at least 4-2 to keep pace, in general, and that looks doable I think.

We also get 7 games against the Padres.  They are 6-10 against LA, 6-6 against us.  Again, we need to do well in the remaining games to catch up and to keep pace.  5-2 is the minimum, I think, as 4-3 would be a huge disappointment, even though SD is around a .500 team and thus 4-3 is probably the most likely result.

We are actually ahead of LA 7-6 right now, but once was 7-3.  Had we won just one of those games, we would have been tied for the division lead the past week instead of being 2 games back.  That just shows how important it is not to get swept by teams you are battling for a playoff spot, and especially for the division lead.  That's what happened in 2010, the Giants were actually head and shoulders above the Padres, but for some reason, lost a lot of games to the Padres.  They would not have been battling for the division league to the end had the Giants just been .500 against them that season, the Giants would have won the division running away had they played them .500 earlier in the season.

But it's going to be tough to take the division lead without beating LA, as they got four games against the woeful Cubs on their schedule, and the other games are against the woeful Padres (only 3) and Rockies (6 games with them), besides our six.

This is very much like 2010 where the team just had to focus on winning each and every game and then worry later where they end up in the standings.  Can't worry about future series, can't even worry about the current series, they need to pass through the gauntlet now and hope to get through it with the lead.

Young Players Perform, As Does Lineup, But Some Other Ones Faltering

In any case, this will be a great learning experience for the young players, both the rookies who were not around in 2012 and the young players who were not around for 2010.   The playoffs look likely (I include the wild card game as a playoff game, unlike the extra games that happened long ago, these wild card games is part of the playoff system, regularly played every season) for the Giants, but this push to the playoffs will still give them the heightened pressure that comes with a pennant chase.  

And the youngsters continue to contribute.  Panik is still hitting well after his hot streak previously.  In his last 14 starts, he's hitting .300/.344/.383/.727, which is pretty good for us in the #2 spot, and he's starting to reignite again (.834 OPS in his last 11 starts).   And Susac has been hitting the snot out of the ball in the past two weeks:  .368/.400/.737/1.137 with 1 HR and 4 doubles in 19 AB, 9 RBI in his last 8 games, 4 of which were starts.

Plus, Arias and Crawford are starting to hit as well in the last couple of weeks.  In fact, he's part of five guys over 1.000 OPS in the past two weeks:  Posey, Susac, Blanco, Pence, Arias.  Plus Panik, Sandoval, and Crawford are hitting OK too.

Pagan continues to struggle though.  And Ishikawa, after a nice start, has hit a dry patch already.   Duffy as well.  He probably would have been sent down by now had the rosters not been expanded on September 1st.  Morse has gotten cold again, but he's been out with an injury so perhaps that was contributing to his poor hitting already.

Pitching, Won't You Please Stand Up?

And hitting has been helping the team win, it is the pitching where the players have to stand up more.  Only five guys got ERA under 4 in the past two weeks.  And they are way under, with 0 or 1 ERA (Bumgarner's 1.71 ERA is the highest of the bunch, rest were 0.00 ERA, Peavy, Strickland, Cordier, Affeldt).   Strickland has been very good so far, 3 appearances, 3 IP, 3 K's, 0 walks, 0 runs, FYI.  One of the Giants FO has noted that he's a potential future closer so this is a great start so far.

And 8 guys with ERA at 4.50 or higher.  NEED - to - IMPROVE!

Winning the division title is going to be very rough.  The Giants need to go on an extended winning period to the end of the season, then see where LA ends up.  To do that, the pitching needs to pick things up.

Bumgarner and Peavy have been very steady, and so has Vogelsong for the most part, as well.  Hudson needs some sort of course correction, perhaps his age is showing and he needs to skip a start to freshen up.  Maybe Lincecum when he's ready can come in and take one of Hudson's starts.  Petit has been good for us as a spot starter, but we need more of the guy retiring 45 batters in a row and not what we saw in his last start, which hopefully was only due to him pitching in Coors.

The bullpen needs to pick things up as well.  Luckily the offense has covered up the problems in this unit over the past couple of weeks, but the Giants don't win generally unless the bullpen is humming along nicely.  Particularly Casilla, Romo, Lopez, Affeldt, of which only Affeldt has pitched well lately.   Hopefully the problems were glitches related to Coors, which did add to a number of pitchers' poor recent performances.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (2) 2017 Giants (16) 25 man roster (10) 25th man fallacy (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (8) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (3) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) Albert Suarez (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (19) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Suarez (2) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (17) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Slater (1) Award (4) BABIP (3) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (3) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (6) Baseball Study (17) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (8) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (1) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (2) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (47) Brandon Crawford (24) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (45) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (29) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (2) Bullpen (29) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (98) Byran Reynolds (1) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (2) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (18) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (2) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (11) Christian Arroyo (6) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (8) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (6) core competency (1) Cory Gearrin (2) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (15) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (2) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (11) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (2) depth (1) Derek Law (8) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (2) dodgers (12) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (7) Draft Analysis (15) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (2) draft philosophy (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) DRS (1) Dynasty (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (2) extension (7) fan outrage (1) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) felony conviction (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (7) Free agent possibilities (20) Free agent signing (13) Free agent signings (21) front office (1) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (8) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Defense (1) Giants Draft (11) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (32) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (64) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (27) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (3) Giants Strategy (35) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (15) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (9) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (11) Heliot Ramos (1) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (17) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (23) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (4) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) injury (3) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (4) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jalen Miller (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (8) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (15) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (14) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (16) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Johnson (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (5) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julio Urias (1) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (4) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (15) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (3) Lineup position (1) links (1) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (1) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (8) Madison Bumgarner (166) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (4) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Melancon (1) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (155) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (1) Matt Moore (9) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (16) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (2) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (7) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (1) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (23) NL West Division Title (17) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (2) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opening Day (5) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (9) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (2) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (92) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (10) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (19) Pitching Rotation (73) pitching staff (5) plate discipline (1) platoon players (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (35) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (5) Playoff Success (21) Playoffs (40) postmortem (1) PQS (93) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (4) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (44) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) Reyes Moronta (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rockies (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (1) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (6) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (4) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) secret sauce (1) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (1) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) splits (2) Spring Training (16) standings (1) starting lineup (18) starting pitching (72) Statcorner (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Steroids (6) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (7) strikeout rate (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (1) Team of the Decade (3) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (194) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (11) Trade Analysis (17) Trade Idea (8) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (4) turning point (1) Ty Blach (9) Tyler Beede (6) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (3) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (1) World Series (26) World Series Champions (11) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Wheeler (9) ZiPS (1)