Thursday, February 24, 2011

2011 Giants Prospects Ranked by MLB Bonus Baby

One site I check regularly, and especially so leading up to the draft is MLB Bonus Baby.  The author recently  released his database of 2011 prospect ratings and I, as I am wont to do, did some analysis of the Giants prospects.

First off, I've never seen such an extended list of Giants prospects ever.  Impressive.

Top 2011 Giants Prospects

But first, he listed his Top 2000 (!!!) prospects for 2011, which I presume resulted from the database above, and the following Giants were the top (with their overall rank; see here for Top 50 2011 Giants prospects):
  1. Brandon Belt (63)
  2. Zach Wheeler (99)
  3. Thomas Neal (125)
  4. Tommy Joseph (179)
  5. Francisco Peguero (222)
  6. Rafael Rodriguez (224)
  7. Gary Brown (229)
  8. Charlie Culberson (233)
  9. Conor Gillaspie (282)
  10. Michael Main (314)
  11. Nick Noonan (330)
  12. Ehire Adrianza (460)
  13. Eric Surkamp (476)
  14. Jarrett Parker (535)
  15. Dan Burkart (547)
  16. Brandon Crawford (579)
Not that I endorse this methodology - which he did not release or explain beyond the very short description at his site - but I had previously found that the site has a lot of good information regarding players drafted and I think it is interesting to examine these lists, to see where it confirms our general impressions and where it converges.  Though I must note that ownership/authorship of the blog has changed since last summer, with this new guy taking over in December:  presumably SB Nation found a good replacement, and judging from comments on the announcement, it seems he's been doing this sort of stuff for a while and people are happy about the changeover.

First off, Belt is rated much lower than most services, which have him among the top 20-40 prospects in the majors.  But not all are believers in his bat, which I have interpreted as their taking into assessment how he hit in college and/or that they don't think he projects to hit that many homers, more of a gap-to-gap hitter.  I think these concerns are overblown, based on how well he hit (and his relative youth) in 2010. 

Wheeler is rated by some in the top 40's but some leave him off their list, so this #99 just reflects the wide array of opinions given his shortened season.  Pitcher who can throw in the mid-to-high 90's regularly, strikeout a lot of batters, AND get a lot of groundballs are golden, not sure why people are so scared of putting him higher.  I think a comp with King Feliz would be a good match, in terms of potential, but of those traits would give him a great advantage over MLB hitters: having all three is just killer.

There were more surprises among these.  Rodriguez, Main, Noonan are rated relatively highly in his system, while Brown, Adrianza, and Crawford are rated relatively lowly.  Interesting names that pop out include Gillaspie, Main, Noonan, Surkamp and especially Burhart.

Giants Prospects Ranked by Total

One stat he provides is Total, a number from 20-80 (mostly) based on a variety of stats including age to define a player's performance compared to players at his level.  Here are the top 15 (with their total):
  1. Edwin Escobar 73 LH-SP
  2. Ehire Adrianza 73 SS
  3. Charlie Culberson 72 2B
  4. Thomas Neal 71 LF
  5. Conor Gillaspie 70 3B
  6. Francisco Peguero 70 OF
  7. Jorge Bucardo 69 SP
  8. Kendry Flores 69 SP
  9. Brandon Belt 67 1B/LF
  10. Lorenzo Medoza 66 SP
  11. Nick Liles 66 2B
  12. Nick Noonan 66 2B
  13. Hector Sanchez 65 C
  14. Ydwin Villegas 65 SS
  15. Eric Surkamp 64 SP
  16. Jacob Dunnington 64 RP
  17. Marvin Barrios 64 RP
This attempts to rate how good a player appears to be in 2010, it seems, and it mostly captures what I think most would say were the most successful Giants prospects of 2010.

What I do like about the list is that it also captures names we don't regularly see among the Giants top prospects, like Edwin Escobar, Jorge Bucardo, Kendry Flores, Lorenzo Mendoza (first time I've heard of him), Nick Niles, Ydwin Villegas, Jacob Dunnington, and Marvin Barrios (another first timer).

Players who did not have a Talent value include Chris Dominguez, Gary Brown, Heath Hembree, Jarrett Parker, Matt Graham, Tommy Joseph, and Zach Wheeler.  Not sure why, but clearly he ranked them somehow as many made his Top 2000 list.  I would guess he used some combo of the three chances columns that he had.

I guess one thing I like of his system is that he takes age into account.  Noonan by most measures did not perform well and he fell on most lists, if not fell off the list, of Giants prospects.  However, he's was only 21 playing in AA where most players are a couple of years older or more, and people forget about that.

Top Ceiling Giants Players

Here are the top Giants ceilings, down to starter/solid regular for position players (10: all-time great; 9: superstar; 8: occassional all-star; 7.6 above average starter; 7.3 slightly above average starter; 7: starter-solid regular) and down to #5 starter/set-up (10: all-time great; 9: ace or top closer; 8: #1/#2 or closer; 7.6: #3 starter or setup; 7.3: #4 starter or setup; 7: #5 starter or setup) or 7 and above:
  1. Zach Wheeler 9.5
  2. Rafael Rodriguez 8.5
  3. Brandon Belt 8 (ties settled by highest floor)
  4. Michael Main 8
  5. Tommy Joseph 8 (floor ties settled by highest chance to majors - talent)
  6. Gary Brown 8
  7. Francisco Peguero 8
  8. Jarrett Parker 8
  9. Heath Hembree 8
  10. Thomas Neal 7.6
  11. Matt Graham 7.6
  12. Henry Sosa 7.6
  13. Hector Correa 7.6
  14. Charlie Culberson 7.5
  15. Conor Gillaspie 7.3
  16. Nick Noonan 7.3
  17. Brandon Crawford 7.3
  18. Roger Kieschnick 7.3
  19. Mike Kickham 7.3
  20. Wilbur Bucardo 7.3

The following were rated a 7:  Ehire Adrianza; Eric Surkamp; Marvin Barrios; Jason Stoffel; Brett Pill; Aaron King; Charles Jones; Clayton Tanner; Wendell Fairley; Stephen Harrold; Daniel Burkart; Austin Fleet; Chris Dominguez; Reinier Roibal (no particular order).

Remember, just ceiling, and most have wide spaces between floor and ceiling, and all the floors are at best replacement level players.  Still, good to see who might be pretty good if things work out and who is not really that good overall, at least in terms of potential for being a star.  It helps us to keep some perspective on how good any one particular prospect is or isn't.  And who maybe we should keep an eye out for. 

Top Giants Chance to Majors - Talent

He also calculated each prospects chances for the majors based on a number of different factors.  Need to remember that making the majors is not the same as doing well there, hence why I chose to focus on the chance to majors based on talent, as those, to me, are the most likeliest to be the star players we root for on the team.

  1. Zach Wheeler 87.9%
  2. Brandon Belt 87.0%
  3. Thomas Neal 86.7%
  4. Tommy Joseph 85.1%
  5. Rafael Rodriguez 83.3%
  6. Charlie Culberson 82.5%
  7. Gary Brown 80.9%
  8. Francisco Peguero 80.5%
  9. Conor Gillaspie 80.3%
  10. Michael Main 79.0%
  11. Nick Noonan 76.7%
  12. Ehire Adrianza 74.01%
  13. Eric Surkamp 72.9%
  14. Jarrett Parker 72.5%
  15. Brandon Crawford 69.4%
These are still a bit tainted by those who might make the majors but not star in it, but still a pretty good list.  Again, Rafael Rodriguez, Michael Main and Nick Noonan are surprises on the upside, but most are surprises to the downside.

7 comments:

  1. Meh

    Check this out:

    http://tinyurl.com/62pj7fq

    ReplyDelete
  2. Meh, no thanks.

    My son just did something like that - click on a site that he couldn't see what the URL was - and the virus was an anti-virus software that took over my home computer and shut down my old virus software. It is not even listed under programs to delete. Now I have to figure out how to get it fixed because we can't afford to bring it in.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The link is to an article comparing the BA top 100 from 10 years ago to how they fared and how the list would be if re-written today (same cast) etc.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oops, sorry Frank, thought you were referring to my article. Thanks for pointing out what the comment was about.

    I saw that article about how it changes over time. That happens every year which is a good point about how things can change over time, depending on how talent develops.

    That makes my point even stronger, not meh, that no one list is the see all and tell all, even BA's, and thus it is worthwhile to look at various other lists in order to see who might be interesting in the system that you might not have thought of before.

    For example, BA did not think much of Sandoval at all, but some list turned me on to him, don't recall who, and when I examined his stats, I was sold that he was ready for a breakout, and made sure that I drafted him in a keeper fantasy league. I drafted him like he was a top prospect and as we all know, he did great in 2008 and 2009.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Interesting stuff. Thanks Martin. I wish I could grasp some of the methodology behind these numbers better. Particularly that Total number. I didn't understand that at all.

    One caution on comping Wheeler to Hernandez: at Wheeler's age King Felix had already started 43 major league games. He pitched at the low A level (where Wheeler was last year) at 17 and while he didn't have many more innings (69 total), he was more impressive across the board than Wheeler, with a 2.22 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 3.37 K/bb. Both Wheeler and Hernandez showed strong stikeout stuff matched with high groundball tendencies (though even there I believe Felix was stronger, but with minorleaguesplits gone I can't find those numbers), but the walk rate was a huge separator, and of course, the three years age difference.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yeah, it would be better if we had a better idea of the methodology, Roger. Still, the ranking didn't look bad, so it is interesting.

    Thanks for pointing out those differences between Wheeler and King Felix. I was not trying to suggest that they will be equal in performance, so I appreciate you pointing this out. I was only trying to point out that Wheeler is a high strikeout guy and high groundball guy like Felix. Those type of pitchers are the holy grail of pitcher development.

    Yeah, I wish minorleaguesplits would have just left what was there instead of releasing the data and leaving us to our own devices.

    But yes, huge differences in performance and age, I was only focusing on the strikeouts and groundballs.

    Still, that's like comparing with someone who is the best, you can still be pretty good and not measure up to the idea/perfect.

    I am pretty excited over Wheeler, the Giants have worked with high walk guys before (Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez) and helped them get better over time.

    What they can't help is when the guy gets injured regularly (Ainsworth, Schierholtz, Liriano), so hopefully Wheeler's fingernail issue in 2010 is not a sign of future injury issues.

    So 2011 will be pivotal for finding out what he is capable of, he should start out in San Jose and they might jump him to Richmond if he is dominating there, then AAA in 2012.

    But I would add that the Giants were not afraid of jumping guys they think they can work with, Sanchez was pretty much jumped from Augusta to the majors, if Wheeler is dealing in San Jose and the Giants need a new starter for any reason, I would think that he would be considered (though not necessarily brought up).

    ReplyDelete
  7. Great breakdown, I'll be sure to link it.

    Also, OT but, I think tinyurl offers a preview service where you can preview a link before clicking through to it. I had the same problem though....a stupid virus software from some random URL destroyed my desktop, and now I must buy a new computer....Grrr

    ReplyDelete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (14) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (10) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (38) 2013 season (5) 2014 Giants (21) 2014 season (8) 25 man roster (7) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (4) 6-man rotation (1) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A's (6) A-Ball (1) A-Rod (3) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) Adalberto Mejia (4) Adam Duvall (1) AFL (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (3) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Susac (4) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (10) Angel Villalona (29) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Arbitration (12) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Award (4) BABIP (2) Barry Bonds (28) Barry Zito (77) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (2) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (5) Baseball Study (12) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (6) bench players (1) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (7) Bill Hall (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (1) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (36) Brandon Crawford (17) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (1) Brett Bochy (2) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (40) Brian Wilson (14) Bruce Bochy (22) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (1) Bullpen (20) Bumgarner (1) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (90) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (1) Cards (8) Career Prospects (3) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) catcher injury (4) catching (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (2) Chillax (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (2) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (8) Christian Arroyo (3) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (3) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (5) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (7) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (1) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) competitiveness (1) Conor Gillaspie (22) contender (1) contract negotiations (1) contract signing (4) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (14) D-gers (31) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (16) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (10) decline (1) Defense (7) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Derek Law (4) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (1) Dirty (1) DL (1) dodgers (2) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (1) Draft Analysis (7) Draft Bonus (7) draft signing (2) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (1) Dres (16) Edgar Renteria (13) Edwin Escobar (4) Ehire Adrianza (13) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Eugenio Velez (12) extension (6) fanfest (1) Fielding (3) Fielding Stats (3) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (3) Free agent possibilities (17) Free agent signing (4) Free agent signings (21) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (22) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (3) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants blogs (1) Giants Chat (3) Giants Draft (7) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (29) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (62) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (2) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (4) Giants Offense (21) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Strategy (34) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) good will (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (11) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Gustavo Cabrera (3) Hall of Fame (7) Hall of Shame (3) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (6) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (8) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) Hitting (15) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (18) Hunter Strickland (1) Idea (4) improvement (1) Indictment (1) injury (1) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (3) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (2) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jake Dunning (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (5) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (2) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (9) Jeremy Shelley (1) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Joaquin Arias (7) Joe Panik (9) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Bowker (22) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (48) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (3) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (4) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Just Say No (1) Kendry Flores (1) Keury Mella (1) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) Kung Fu Panda (29) Kyle Crick (10) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (1) Lineup position (1) Long-Term Contract (21) long-term planning (3) luck (1) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Mac Williamson (5) Madison Bumgarner (107) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (2) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (10) Mark DeRosa (8) Martin Agosta (6) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (107) Matt Downs (2) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (15) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (9) Mediots (3) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Kickham (8) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (5) milestone (1) minor league contract (1) minors (10) mismanagement (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (6) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (3) MVP (1) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Nick Noonan (25) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (21) NL West Division Title (15) NL West Future (1) NLCS (15) NLCS MVP (1) NLDS (7) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (1) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (1) Opening Day (4) opening day pitcher (1) opening day roster (3) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (85) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (8) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phillies (7) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitching (14) Pitching Rotation (50) pitching staff (1) plate discipline (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (23) playoff roster (1) playoff rotation (3) Playoff Success (18) Playoffs (26) postmortem (1) PQS (53) press conference (1) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (3) projection (2) promotion (1) prospect (2) prospect analysis (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (42) questions (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (9) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Ron Shandler (2) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) ROY (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (52) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (4) Sabermetric Thoughts (5) sabermetrics (3) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (8) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) Sergio Romo (13) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (12) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) Spring Training (15) standings (1) starting lineup (14) starting pitching (40) STATS (1) Steroids (5) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (4) Tim Lincecum (143) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (9) Trade Analysis (15) Trade Idea (7) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (28) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (39) turning point (1) Ty Blach (2) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Winter League (1) World Series (18) World Series Champions (10) WS Ring Bling (1) Yusmeiro Petit (6) Zack Wheeler (9)