Sunday, January 18, 2009

Hamel Signs $20.5M contract for three years: Implication for Lincecum

A while back I ventured a guestimate of around $28-32M for Lincecum for four years (plus option year for his last year of Giants control). Yesterday, Cole Hamels of the Phillies, a pitcher very similar to Lincecum, signed a three year contract worth $20.5M, as reported in the Hot Stove blog. The split: $4.35M in 2009, $6.65M in 2010, and $9.5M in 2011. That buys out the first three years of salary arbitration, then he'll be arbitration-eligible for one more season before becoming a free agent.

Lincecum, based on the recent info from the Taschner news that being Super Two was time based and that Lincecum should be in the high 2's, should have 4 arbitration years after this season pre-arb contract this season (which should be pretty good given he won the Cy Young award). So he should be in Hamel's shoes after this season.

I think my estimate is OK though probably low. Adding a fourth year at around $11-13M would place Hamels contract in the $31-33M range. Since he won the Cy Young and has done better than Hamels, Lincecum should get probably at least 10-20% more, putting the final total around $35-40M.

Since Lincecum's agent indicated a willingness to discuss a contract at the end of the 2008 season, hopefully this means that a contract similar to Hamels can be worked out with Lincecum.

2 comments:

  1. Another bit of related news: Feliz Hernandez signed a one-year contract for $3.8M. He is similar to Lincecum in that he's a high strikeout, high groundball type of pitcher, is young, but its his first year of arbitration; Lincecum should be getting his first year in 2010.

    That is right in the ballpark as Hamel's $4.35M for his first year in arbitration.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree that they are similar, but living in Philly and having a brother in-law with season tixs, I get out to about 20 games a year, including all three Giants games. However there is one major difference, Philadelphia thinks of Hamels as a really good number two pitcher or a OK Ace. While SF has a great Ace in Tim. I argued all last year with people around me that I would rather have Hamels than Zambrano or F. Hernandez, which I think is legit. Bottom line is that people perceive Hamels as not wanting to take charge and being passive (things you dont do in Philly) while Tim is already considered an Ace and that might drive up his price a little.

    I think Tim will sign the same contract allowing one year arb at the end, but maybe closer to a 3 yr deal at 25 mil or if he signs this year 4 years at 28-30 million.

    I know I rambled a little bit but perception will change there values, also Tim has a Cy young, which is more valuable than a WS MVP award (which is also pretty awesome).

    ReplyDelete

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