Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Expert Says "Don't Worry About Posey"

Baseball America's latest "Ask BA" column discussed the top picks who haven't signed yet. They also noted some above slot signings in the 3rd and 4th round by the Nats.

Posey Situation

BA says: "Fear not, Giants fans." They note: "We're going through the usual last-minute rhetoric, with both clubs and players laying it on thick. "

They predict that "... Florida State catcher Posey (No. 5, Giants) will get [one of] the most lucrative deals in this year's draft, landing [a] major league contracts worth more than No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham's deal with the Rays. Beckham signed a draft-record $6.15 million bonus, with MLB calculating the present value at $4.7 million after Tampa Bay spread it over five years under provisions for two-sport athletes. "

And that's what I've been guessing as well, something in the $5-6M range, something like what Weiters got last season. For lazy agents who are Boras wannabes, they drag the negotiations to the last moment in hopes of getting that final bit of leverage and help pay for their high agent fees when the draftee probably could have signed a contract like Tim Beckham did without much haggling. They are just doing this to justify their fees and their existence.

That's why smart players like Ray Allen (NBA) negotiated on his own and hired experts on a consulting basis to look over the papers and make sure there are no legal backdoors and such. Saved himself a huge agent fee and probably got himself about what the agent would have gotten. With the slotting of baseball (or any other major sport), you only really need an agent if the team is a cheapskate historically (Giants have not been in that category) or you really want a lot over slot, which could be the draftees in the top 5 to top 10 picks overall. Those players have been going with Boras.

Over Slots

With the Nats signing Long Beach State shortstop Danny Espinosa (third round) for $525,000 and Florida high school pitcher Graham Hicks (fourth) for $475,000, that gives us an approximate ceiling on where our 3rd and 4th round picks, Kieschnick and Crawford might get, though Hicks had more leverage as a high schooler and got a bit more for that probably (if he had a good advisor). I don't see how they can turn down half a million now for the chance to improve their performance next season and maybe get a million as a first round draft pick.

If they can really improve their performance next season, then if they signed for $500K now, they would be doing it as a professional and probably a season closer to the majors (which pays nearly $400K per season), than they would saying back in college, and risking having little leverage as a senior. If you really believe that you can do better, wouldn't it be better in the minors than in college? Plus, had they signed early like some did, they would both have 100-200 ABs under their belt, and if they were as good as they think they could be next season, they could have boosted themselves even higher up the minor league ladder.

Haggling over what would probably end up being less than $100K difference from the slot doesn't nothing for their security (though it does give their agent a nice payday) plus prevents them from showing what they think they got and getting a headstart versus most of the rest of the draftees. All over an amount that is not lifechanging (not anywhere close to how lifechanging the bonus itself is).

Hopefully they sign, I don't have a gut feeling either way for the two, I am pretty sure Posey will sign one of the highest deals of this draft, but these two should have signed already. Yet they still haven't so that is discouraging to me, because that means that they have advisors who might not be totally representing their best interests, as it was in their best interest to sign quickly and prove yourself quickly before the others do.

If they are as good as they think, they would have been competing against a bunch of players from the later rounds and could beat up on them quickly and maybe get promoted quickly to Augusta or even San Jose. Now there will be little time to evaluate them - because while they might have nice college stats, this is the pros now, things are way different - and they will probably start lower than they could have been next season, had they played and proved themselves.

It is not like they were early first round picks, who are more of a sure thing, they were back of the first round type of guys, who are pretty much rolls of the dice to see what happens. Talent like that cannot really leverage to get much over slot, it's not worth it for the teams to do that. Now, they might believe that they are top of the draft talent, but neither of them were considered that highly from all the draft news I read.

I am more confident about Kieschnick signing than Crawford - Crawford has a UCLA degree he's working for that is valuable - but, still, not sure if either will sign.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (3) 2017 Giants (22) 2018 Draft (2) 2018 Giants (2) 25 man roster (10) 25th man fallacy (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (8) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (3) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) Albert Suarez (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (19) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Suarez (2) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (1) Arbitration (17) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Slater (2) Award (4) BABIP (3) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (3) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (6) Baseball Study (17) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (8) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (1) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (2) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (47) Brandon Crawford (24) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (45) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (29) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (2) Bullpen (29) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (98) Byran Reynolds (1) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (2) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (18) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (2) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (13) Christian Arroyo (6) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (8) closer by committee (3) Coaches (3) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) competitiveness (1) Connor Nurse (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (6) core competency (1) Cory Gearrin (2) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (15) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (2) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (11) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (2) depth (1) Derek Law (8) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (2) dodgers (12) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (7) Draft Analysis (15) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (2) draft philosophy (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (2) Dres (16) DRS (1) Dynasty (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (2) extension (7) fan outrage (1) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) felony conviction (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (2) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (7) Free agent possibilities (20) Free agent signing (14) Free agent signings (21) front office (1) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (8) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Defense (1) Giants Draft (11) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (32) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (64) Giants GM (4) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (27) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (3) Giants Strategy (36) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (15) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (9) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (11) Heliot Ramos (2) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (17) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (23) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (4) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) injury (3) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (4) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (2) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jalen Miller (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (8) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (18) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (14) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (19) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Johnson (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (5) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julio Urias (1) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (4) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (15) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (3) Lineup position (1) links (1) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (1) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (8) Madison Bumgarner (169) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (4) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Melancon (1) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (158) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (1) Matt Moore (12) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (16) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (4) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (3) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (7) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (1) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (23) NL West Division Title (17) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (2) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opening Day (5) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (9) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (2) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (93) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (10) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (19) Pitching Rotation (76) pitching staff (5) plate discipline (1) platoon players (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (35) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (5) Playoff Success (21) Playoffs (40) postmortem (1) PQS (96) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (4) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (44) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (1) return (1) Reyes Moronta (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rockies (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (1) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (6) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (4) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) secret sauce (1) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (2) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) splits (2) Spring Training (16) standings (1) starting lineup (18) starting pitching (75) Statcorner (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Steroids (6) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (7) strikeout rate (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (1) Team of the Decade (3) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (194) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) Top Draft Position (2) top prospect list (4) Trade (11) Trade Analysis (17) Trade Idea (9) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (4) turning point (1) Ty Blach (12) Tyler Beede (6) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (3) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (1) World Series (26) World Series Champions (11) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Wheeler (9) ZiPS (1)