Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Lowry's May Be Out for Season

As been feared by Giants fans when Lowry was shut down in mid-April, the Giants have announced that Lowry might not return this season: when asked about Lowry pitching in 2008, Bochy said, "That's questionable. We don't know if he'll be back on the mound for us this year." Then the head trainer, Dave Groeschner, noted that even if Lowry were to resume throwing on July 1, he's need six to eight weeks without further setbacks to get his arm in shape to pitch. By then, it would be mid-August or early September.

Groeschner still won't rule out returning completely. They are waiting for the pins-and-needles sensation in his forearm to subside and recently the feeling has migrated from Lowry's upper forearm toward his wrist, which he says indicates that it might soon disappear.

Giants Thoughts

That's bad news but luckily Sanchez has made the best of his opportunity and our rotation has not been hurt that badly; it suffered more from losing Correia and adding Misch. I had been advocating trading him since the end of the 2006 season but we can forget about trading him now. His contract only goes to 2009, which is next season. I doubt under the circumstances that they are going to pick up his option for the 2010 season and instead try their luck to resign him for lower bucks without going to arbitration for that season.

Meanwhile, if you pencil in Lowry for the 2009 rotation, that would leave the Giants having to choose between Correia or Sanchez for the rotation, plus Misch would be a capable #5 starter and there are a number of pitchers coming up the system in two or three years, like Sosa, Alderson, Bumgarner, Bucardo, plus possibilities like Cowart, Pucetas, Snyder, Tanner.

So I would expect the Giants to actively shop both Correia and Sanchez, perhaps even as soon as July or August, presuming the Giants fall further from the race by then, and pulling the trigger if the price is right. By then, there will be desperate playoff contenders looking for another good starter due to injury and/or lack of performance, and the two of them would make fine additions to most rotations. Using that leverage, the Giants could get a team to give up a prospect ready for the majors in 2009 in order to get Correia and Sanchez in 2008 in order to make the playoffs.

If that don't happen, then both of them should be shopped for a good position prospect, we reportedly were offered Carlos Gomez by the Mets for Sanchez previously, so if Sanchez can continue to do well this season, we should be able to get more than that for him, particularly if the other team is desparate for a good starter.

Correia will be harder to get more in trade for him, but he's the type of #4/5 starter you need in order to win a division title (then he can go into relief during the playoffs) so I'm OK with keeping him if the value is not out there. Sanchez is definitely the shinier bauble to trade and hopefully the Giants can pick up some good prospects for him before the 2009 season, at least a good hitting infielder plus another prospect or two. That's presuming he continues to improve and develop this season.

2 comments:

  1. I'm kind of amazed that you can read this story and then write: pencil Lowry in for 2009. That's not the correct moral to be taking from this story. Be grateful if you ever get any contribution from him again, but don't expect it would be my approach.

    Now that doesn't necessarily mean I wouldn't shop a starter this winter, I would but I'd look to make a serious haul with it, which means putting Sanchez and Cain feelers out there, and really really understanding their worth and not accepting anything that doesn't bring in more talent then it sends out.

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  2. Sorry I didn't make it clear but, to me, when you pencil someone in, you don't really think he's necessarily going to be there when the first pitch of the season arrives. The pencil can be erased.

    So I absolutely agree with you on that point, he might not be there. And I see your point about not assuming he's ever going to pitch another inning for us. But that's not a germane point to what I was saying, whether he's there or not, we have a lot of pitchers who are coming up soon and taking his place anyway.

    I just feel that with a good starting 3 core of Cain, Lincecum, and Zito (I think he'll be fine as a middle rotation starter, like he was with the A's), and a stable of starters who look to be at least back of the rotation starters, if not more, the Giants should look into shopping both Sanchez and Correia (as much as I would love to keep both).

    And that's the other thing I probably should make clearer in my posts, what I believe the Giants will do versus what I think is the best thing for the Giants to do.

    That's why I advocated for trading Lowry a while back, I like Lincecum and Cain, and felt that Lowry's good stats should enable us to pick up some good talent in trade. That's why Coreia and Sanchez are the two best trading chips now for the Giants, they have good stats and are the most developed of the pitchers.

    And not to trade for trading sake, but to get real talent back, particularly at 3B. If the Padres could get a Kouzmanoff for a Jesse Barfield, I don't think that's a lot to ask for Sanchez. I am looking to get someone good enough to be our future starting 3B or SS in the next year or two.

    If that is not available, I'm more than happy to keep them, they should be good enough to overpower their competition at the back of the pitching rotation during the season, as well as take on the pitcher up top the other team's rotation. That will win us a lot of games in the back of the rotation.

    Do not trade Cain, unless the Giants truly believe that Sanchez is over the hump and that he can take over for Cain as an ace in the rotation. That appears to be happening but, you know, it looked like it was happening for Oliver Perez a few years ago too, so you never know.

    Still, given Cain's ups and downs, despite his general goodness and stuff, versus Sanchez's overwhelming power and leftyness, Sanchez could be netting more in a trade than Cain come the off-season anyway.

    Either way, a package like what the A's got for Haren would be my asking price for Cain or Sanchez, particularly a 3B. Or if it's one for one, then an Evan Longoria or Alex Gordon, would be an excellent swap. There has to be some sizzle, not like the lame Alex Rios trade floated by Toronto last off-season.

    People seem to forget that Sabean never responsed directly to the rumor, the writers made it seem like it, but he was actually his old usual self speaking generically about needing to hear every offer out there, blah, blah, blah. It was Toronto that floated that to the media, probably to give some juice for their fanbase.

    So we don't know how seriously he considered the trade, if at all. Maybe he played along to see if this was all Toronto was willing to offer or if he could get a really good package out of them.

    That is stuff that happens behind the scene that fans don't see at all, they only see what the media presents to them. And even the media can dig only so far, they are good investigative reporters but they aren't supermen.

    And I'm not totally sold on trading Sanchez either, I'm just willing to see what they can get for him. If he does develop into an ace, how cool would that be with three aces - Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain - heading the rotation, we should be able to roll over teams during the regular season as well as the playoffs, once our offense gets another boost or two.

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