Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Latest Thoughts on Draft

I think ideally, we get someone among Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham, and Buster Posey (can you imagine if we had kept Boof, we could have a battery of Boof to Buster, plus Bocock and Burriss up the middle, Bowker at 1B).

Unfortunately, the more I think about it, the more I think they will all get selected before we get to pick. The only way we end up with one of the above is if two of the following happens: 1) Alvarez's money demands push him down to us, 2) one of teams ahead of us decide to draft a pitcher, 3) one of the teams ahead of us decide that Eric Hosmer is worth Boras's (his agent) hype, or 4) one of the teams ahead of us pull someone out of the hat other than these acknowledged top prospects available. Those who might fit that last one include Gordon Beckham, Yonder Alonso, and Kyle Skipworth, plus pitchers Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow.

Best Available Hitter

Right now, I think the best hitter available to us will then be Justin Smoak, and it's no shame in selecting him, but that's probably our position of least need with Bowker for now and Villalona in the future, plus no real prospect (at least a highly rated one) at C, SS, or 3B. Even if there were a pitcher who was clearly the best talent, I don't think that going for a less talented hitter would hurt us much given the hitters available, but it seems pretty clear that the pitching is at best equal to the hitters and probably a little bit behind.

There has been some talk about picking the other Beckham, Gordon, plus there's a rumor that the Giants have an unknown middle-infielder targeted for the pick, but I think we have to go with best available position player, who most probably will be Justin Smoak unless another hitter falls to us. I wonder if this rumored MI is slotted for their next pick.

I have seen some comment that we should not draft a catcher with the pick because they tend to take longer to develop plus get injured more often. What some people haven't noticed is that Buster Posey was a shortstop his first season of college, and as recently as this year he played all nine positions in a game, plus has relieved as well. So even if we select him, we could move him back to SS and let him advance quickly there, much like how the Astros converted Craig Biggio from catcher to 2B and CF. Who knows, maybe he'll be another position player who could come in and pitch to a batter or two in a pinch or even play all positions in a major league game. Versatility like that will be that much more valuable going forward.

2 comments:

  1. My preference is someone with offensive upside. I love Smoak's swing and I would be pleased to take him with the 5th pick.

    I'm not worried about that position or the fact that Angel is destined to be a first baseman. My theory is that you take the best hitter available and if the Giants are fortunate enough that Angel and Justin both make it to the bigs as hitters, well, you cross that bridge when you get there.

    I like Alvarez and T. Beckham, but they'll most likely be gone. I wouldn't hate Posey at 5 -- some people really don't like him -- but I think I'd prefer someone with more offensive potential over him. Still, he's a "safe pick" and could be a gold glove catcher with good pop, and the ability to hit for average. Not too bad.

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  2. I think the up the middle player is Tyler Ladendorf from Howard College that we will take in the comp round

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