Your 2025 Giants: Why?!?

I’ve been wondering the same thing:  why?  I posted a comment on The Athletic, then copied and modified it here, then went further and discussed 2026 implications.

ogc thoughts 

And my conclusion is the tipping point was when Roupp left the rotation, which is roughly when things went south badly, relative to the rest of the season.  They have been 6-13 since his last start, and were 53-49 at that time, which is basically where they had been bouncing around all season.  

I see Roupp out of the rotation as the tipping point because I studied starting rotations (via my PQS studies) during the Dynasty era, and when they were winning, they had three good SP and one sorta okay SP (Zito in those days) and cycling through options for the fifth. And that’s what we had for the first half of the season, three good SP (Webb, Ray, Roupp) and one sorta okay SP (Verlander) and cycling for the fifth.

But after Roupp was ILed, then we had really bad SP in the 4-5 slots, plus Webb had his bad stretch of starts.  Runs allowed per game soared to 4.7 runs per game (it was 4.0 runs allowed up to that point).  

And losing Roupp happened right when the team was already in a bad stretch of play, and was a gut punch, to a swirling team.  We have seen this story before, it was a perfect storm, a struggling team loses an important player, and so the hitters try harder, which just screws them up even more.  After he was ILed, they have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game, and that includes the 12 runs scored game, and that was down from the 4.2 runs scored rate they were at for the season.

And for all the complaints I have been seeing about the team, only 26 games ago, most of those were not valid.  And here we are now, with Roupp returning to the rotation.  And Webb (3.00 last three starts, 3.34 for the season), Ray (3.28 last four starts, 2.98 for the season), and Verlander (3.77 last six starts, 2.70 last four starts) have been pitching okay overall in recent starts.  So this is another key point of the season, will the team start playing to where they were earlier in the season or will they continue to spiral?  

As bad as things appear right now, I would not bet against them rising again, because I have seen teams rise when a key pitcher returns, but, yeah, my dauber is down and like many of the complainers, I don’t see how they can rise again.  And for all we know, Roupp could end up on the IL again.  We will see how the team responds in the coming weeks.

Melvin Doesn't Look Likely for 2026

It also doesn't look good for Melvin either.  The decline can almost be tied to when he received his extension.  It is almost like the team gave up after he got the extension.  They did have a win streak, going 7-3 initially.  But they have been 7-19 since.  

I believe they will need to recover back to above .500 for Melvin to keep his job for 2026, if not get closer to 85 wins than 81 wins, which is a tall task, getting 8 games above .500 means going 26-15 for the rest of the season.  Even reaching 82 wins means 23-18 to finish the season.  We'll see.

Transitional 2025 Season

All this to say what I said in the preseason, this is still a transitional season, like 2008-2009, where we are still learning about young players, some will rise, some will fail, and ups and downs are to be expected.  That's why the Giants went with Verlander as their free agent signing, and two unknowns in Hicks and Roupp, as their 4th and 5th starters, hoping that someone will do well.  While Roupp did well, unfortunately, this season appears to be more 2008 than 2009.

Thoughts on 2026 Season

While the Giants are only 5 games behind the third WC spot (Mets), they have to climb over three other teams in between (Reds, Cards, D-backs).  Cards and D-backs are only 1.5 and 0.5 games ahead, and that can be done in a week, the Reds are 4.5 games ahead.  Plus the Marlins are only 1 game behind!  So while there is a chance that the Giants could storm their way back into contention, some thoughts to next season isn't out of the question.

Zaidi Is Thankfully Gone

First off, just want to say that I believe that Posey was right to pull the trigger on Zaidi and I've been very happy Posey took over, and kept the organization mostly intact, but now pointed in the right direction.  It's clear now that Posey's comments about fundamentals was the breaking point for Zaidi.  We can see some examples in recent seasons.

First off, Kyle Harrison.  He should be a stud atop a rotation right now with his elite fastball, by developing 2-3 other pitches to complement it in the minors.  I've been assuming that was what was happening because he rose quickly and did very well when he figured out a level.  Instead, he figured out the level just with his one pitch, and was quoted in an interview just before he was traded that he was happy with his repertoire.  Not a good thing, he should have been working on other pitches!

And that's why I'm very happy with Posey, because he converted a multi-season project in Harrison into an elite hitter in Rafael Devers.  This also explains why the pitching leaders all left the Giants:  Bannister, Bailey, and Daniels.  They didn't like the way that Zaidi was running things.  Luckily Martinez didn't get away, hopefully he can be the pitching guru we lost in Dick Tidrow, who was our guiding light during the Sabean era.

Second off, defense.  While Zaidi did well in obtaining Bailey, Schmitt and Fitzgerald, he was failing at teaching defense with Ramos, Matos, and Luciano.  The three of them came up with okay defensive reputations in the minors, but in the majors, they have been a major bust.  That is probably why Posey hired Randy Winn to coordinate the minors and majors, to fix problems like the above two Zaidi problems.

Posey Can Guide The Giants

And I believe Posey can fix the pitching and defense problems and other fundamental problems that Zaidi's tenure allowed to fester.  It will take some time, but defense can be taught.  Mike Schmidt wasn't a Gold Glove 3B to start, he was raw, but he worked his way to excellence.  I believe that Ramos can work his way back, he wasn't that bad in 2024.  

And Posey was a great catcher. That's why he won all those Gold Gloves.  That's why they renamed the college catching award from Johnny Bench to Buster Posey.  He knows pitching and how to make them better with their repertoire.  

Zaidi's main lieutenants, Minasian and Holmes, who found the prospects, were retained, and they should be able to find more talented prospects, like they did with Bailey, Schmitt, Harrison, Roupp, Birdsong, Whisenhunt, and Eldridge.  

And I now believe it was Eldridge who prompted Posey to push his way in.  He wanted to ensure that Zaidi didn't screw up the best hitting prospect that the Giants have had since Clark and Williams were drafted.  That's why when he's discussed, the focus is on him being a complete player, both hitting and defense. And why the reports are out that he's still a bit raw defensively.  

2026 Needs to be the All In Season

Even with all these fixes Posey has instituted, I think the Giants will have to go all in for the 2026 season.  Especially with the Devers acquisition and Eldridge soon enough to join and add turbo jets to the offense.  The fanbase is restless and many are already doubting Posey.  Most importantly, Chapman, Adames, and Devers' contracts are ticking bombs, where their decline phase will kick in sooner or later, especially Chapman, who will be 33 YO next season and Adames will be 30 YO next season, as well.  Times a-ticking!

The areas where they need to add free agents are Starting Pitcher, and perhaps RF or 2B.  

A third ace SP is the key acquisition.  The 2025 Giants showed how powerful it is and how bad it can be without it, with Roupp being that third ace and the team doing well, and then how everything fell apart when he was out. With Ray only signed to 2026, the Giants need to pursue another long term top of rotation starter, like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Brandon Woodruff, or Merrill Kelly, to set up a 2026 rotation of Webb, Ray and the third ace, and hopefully Roupp as the 4th starter (if he is healthy), with Birdsong, Whisenhunt, Teng, Black, Tidwell battling for the 5th spot and possibly the long man role vs Bivens.  Verlander might come back if Roupp isn't healthy, as the 4th starter, if he can end 2025 as well as his recent starts.

RF is where the Giants can push the gas to the floor.  Kyle Tucker is a free agent and wants a boatload of cash.  The Giants likely can provide that cash, even with signing an ace starting pitcher.  Per Spotrac, the Giants are 10th in spending, and $80M behind Toronto in spending, so it appears doable for the Giants to get an ace and RF signed for 2026.  Tucker would turbo charge the lineup even further, setting up a lineup of Lee, Devers, Adames, Tucker, Chapman, Ramos, Schmitt, Smith (1B), and Bailey.  

2B is where the Giants could just screw with the MLB:  what if they sign Alex Bregman to play 2B?  I think Schmitt will earn the starting 2B job, and getting Bregman too would break the bank, but the lineup would be elite if they added Tucker and Bregman.  Unlikely to happen, but something to think about as well, similar to the Dodgers spending $1B to get Yamamoto and Ohtani to buy the 2024 World Series.  I would not mind if the Giants try to buy one as well.