Your 2019 Giants: Thoughts On Giants GM Hunt

I've been wanting to post about the firing of Bobby Evans for a while now, but just been busy as heck at work and with life.   But I found a spot of time, and commented the below at a sports watering hole which was discussing the Giants open GM opportunity.  Plus grabbing some stuff I wrote in another post which I had started, part of which follows.  And still, a week or so later...

As you probably heard, Bobby Evans got fired from his Giants GM job, as part of the overhaul of the organization due to two (and a half insists many) years of losing.   The new GM, according to Baer, will continue to report to him, just like Evans did.  Sabean and Bochy have another year on their contract (so did Evans), and apparently will serve it out in 2019.  Evans will be re-assigned somewhere else in the organization; however, not as a special assistant, though, as Righetti was, for example.

In addition, there is going to still be a two-tier organization in the wake of Evans' termination.  As part of the changes, Sabean could be removed from his job as VP of Baseball Operations.  Thus the job search could involve both a new VP of Baseball Operations, as well as a new GM, both reporting in to  Larry Baer.  Sabean will be helping in deciding who will be the new "NextGen" GM, as Baer called the ideal candidate and apparently will stay in a yet to be determined role, should the new hire be the new VP, but appears to maybe keep the job, if the new hire is given the GM title, as I'll discuss in more details below.


ogc thoughts

As many in social media has said, Evans was the fall guy for the let down of the last two seasons.  I agree.  People want heads to roll, and Evans was the one.  As I recall a baseball manager (or GM) say one time, they are hired to be fired.  It's the nature of the job.

However, he has already made a number of questionable moves thus far in his short tenure.  From trading Adam Duvall, to trading Luis Castillo, to the Matt Moore trade, to the signings of Denard Span and Austin Jackson, to the DFA of Dan Otero, to the Rule 5 Draft loss of JoeBiagini.  So I am not against the changing of the guard at GM.  Evans has served us very well over his 25 or so years with the Giants, and while the fall guy, I'm not saying it's a mistake to let him go either.

What's the Difference?

One question I bring up about Evans getting fired is this: what's so different between now and the 2005-2008 period where the team was losing as well, and for a longer time?

The Giants won from 2005-2008 only 75, 76, 71, 72 games, four years of bad results (leading to picks 10, 10, 5, and 6), but this time won 64 last season, and 73 wins this season.  Some want to throw in the 30-42 in the second half of 2016, roughly high 60's win rate.  Very similar levels of bad baseball.

Yet Evans is being used as the sacrificial lamb this time, after only two years, whereas back then, the Giants doubled down with Sabean by giving him another two year extension.  What's the difference?

The main difference to me is that Sabean has a irreplaceable skill in identifying baseball talent, whereas Evans was more of an administrator, which is much easier to replace.  Hence why Sabean is still around, and Evans is gone.  As I've noted for a long time now, Sabean has exhibited an ability to assess player's talent levels, enabling him to gain a lot more value in trades, than given up, then when the talent flowed in, knew the talent enough to keep the right ones while trading from the rest, his infamous "Do Not Trade" list of players.

As I noted above, I've been worried about Evans for a while now.  I keep lists of prospects lost during the GM's tenure, and Evans' list already look troubling:  Adam Duvall, Luis Castillo, Christian Arroyo, Kyle Crick, Dan Otero, Joe Biagini, plus Matt Duffy is on his ledger as well.  That's a long list after just a few years on the job, nothing like Sabean, who had a long string of great trades (Rueter, Snow, Burks, Nen, Livan) after a few years on the job, punctuated by two great trades (Kent, Schmidt).

Why I Give Evans Credit for His Moves, Not Collaboration

I see some say that Sabean is equally at fault for these trades, as the organization is very collaborative and Evans would seek input from Sabean, but these people forget what Colletti said long ago when he was with the Giants, that Sabean is a great hands-off manager, that he allowed his lieutenants to go ahead and make trades, even it is not in his area of duties (which is why I suspect that the AJP trade that we all hated was made by Colletti, as I've explained before).

Plus, as Magowan once noted, as well, had he been asked about the AJP trade, he would have vetoed it.  Which makes it clear that while the organization is very collaborative, Evans had a free hand to do his job without much interference, other than some over arching guidelines as to the goals for the team.  Which is what Sabean had been bumped up to do more of, as well as more scouting.

So I'm sure Sabean would speak with Evans if asked about a trade, but it's not like Evans had to go to Sabean for every trade he made.  And I doubt he had to go to Sabean or Baer for any of the trades he made, other than Longoria, because of the contract commitments, and perhaps the Duffy trade, which involved trading that $6M prospect, Lucius Fox.  That turned out to be a horrible trade, and probably part of the reason Sabean was asked to be more involved a year ago.  I'm sure he had conversations with Sabean and Baer about obtaining players, but the details about who was included in the trade is undoubtedly Evan's choices.  And his choices have been suspect for a while now.

Joy:  Sabean and Bochy Remains

So I'm happy that Sabean and Bochy stays.  Evans was more of an administrative guy anyway, and those kind of people can be replaced, relatively easily, I think.  Sabean is the guy who has the real differentiating skill, which is scouting players.  He is clearly still around, and he may or may not retain his role as VP of Baseball Operations.  At worse, make him a special assistant, but the Giants need to keep his keen scouting eye around, however way they can.

Sabean's Fate Unclear Except That He's Sticking Around

There are conflicting views of what is going to happen to Sabean, however. This is why I wish I had access to the full transcripts of public announcements like this, which Tim Kawakami was great about making it available when he was with the Mercury, but hasn't done much of with The Athletic. 

You can see the problem by comparing the reporting from the beat writers.  Each will provide their view of what's been said, and while they are mostly the same, each will have key information that the others did not include.  And some would interpret what was said one way, while the rest didn't.  I would rather see the source materials and make my own judgement, nothing against the writers, as I think that they are all very good at what they do.

For now, I'm assuming that since Sabean is part of the hiring committee that he's still considered to be a good source of advice and information regarding baseball and how a team should be run, otherwise Baer would have dumped him like he did Evans.  I don't think Sabean has any airs about title, as long as he gets to do what he loves, which appears to be scouting.  I think he hated the administrative side, and was happy to cede that to Evans when Evans was promoted.  I expect him to be retained as a special advisor, similar to how Dick Tidrow is sticking around, as well.

Bochy Lame Duck

Bochy after winning 3 World Series, is not going to be fired, but, from my end, hopefully 2019 is his last season, mainly because his health has been in decline for a number of years now, with various medical procedures, plus now he can use the excuse of spending time with his new grandchild.  I would like to see him enjoy the fruits of his efforts, and spend time with his wife and family.  Ironically, he just became a grandfather this last season, so that's been an excuse used before, for Magowan.

Also, as I've been documenting, his record in one-run games have been poor for some years now, after being superb much of his career, and that was the pattern I saw with Bobby Cox as well as Tony LaRussa.  That has hurt the Giants since the second championship.  One theory I heard when I discussed this online was that this was tied to him having a great closer.  Maybe I'll look into that one day.

In addition, they appear to be grooming Meulens to take over, with all the changes made last season, he was the only guy who got promoted.  Hopefully he doesn't get hired away for one of the various managerial openings (including Reds, who are also interviewing David Bell, who currently works for the Giants; it would figure though, if he leaves after one year, again, but at least this one would make sense, his family has a long history with the Reds, and I think his father is in a high position there as well.  Plus, the thinking when he was hired was that he was getting himself ready for a managerial position in his future, anyway, so the feeling already when he was hired was that he would leave in the near future at some point, anyway).

In any case, I'm for letting Bochy finish his contact and to retire in Orange and Black glory, but not in favor of giving him an extension, mainly because of his health issues because I would like to see him enjoy the fruits of his success (as well as his wife and family) but also because of signs of decline, based on his one-run game record and the history/experience of great managers prime periods and decline phase.

Giants GM Hunt

There are a few things to remember about the Giants regarding the new GM.

First of all, Sabean is not only still around, but he's helping to select the new GM/VP.  That means that the move to remove Evans was a repudiation of his abilities as a GM, but also a confirmation that Sabean's long term plan, whatever it is, which was undoubtedly constructed with Baer's guidance, remains fully in effect.

Secondly, it appears that, if necessary, the new hire could take on Sabean's VP of Baseball Ops role.  Which would also mean that the new hire could just be the GM.  That shows again that the Giants, while looking for new ideas and abilities in the new hire, is not looking necessarily for someone whose long term view clashes greatly with Baer's and Sabean's long term plans, because if they were looking for huge changes, they would have simply said that the new hire would BE the VP of Baseball Ops, that's the model the rest of the MLB has taken (and how the Giants are organized as well).  Instead, the new hire could be the VP, if necessary, to hire him or her away from their current position, but would be GM, if not necessary.

Thirdly, the Giants have operated in a manner where the baseball operations have their ideas of how to maximize the MLB team, and then, within certain parameters, will have to go to ownership to finance and/or okay the move.   The Giants, being collaborative, for the most part, ownership generally is aware of what baseball ops is trying to do, and when it gets to the point where ownership needs to okay the move, they should be mostly on board already.

Fourth, the Giants already said that Bochy will be around for 2019, and there is no way Baer or Sabean would allow Bochy, in potentially his final season as manager, go out with a rebuilding team, with no chance of winning.  Nor would I think that Bochy would want to stick around a rebuilding team, he's gone through so many with the Padres already.  So I think the new GM will be under the same pressures that Sabean and Evans were when they were GM:  rebuild with what we have.

Fifth, likewise, just because Bochy (and maybe Bell) are still around for 2019, it does not mean that the new head won't have the ability to name new people to those roles in 2020 or later.  People are acting like GM's want to rule freely or they will pass.  GM's know that every job have constrictions and limiting factors.

Given the above, it seems clear to me that they are looking for someone to come in and add the latest and greatest things in terms of process and methodology, but not necessarily someone who will shake things up greatly and change their long term strategy, whatever that has been in place, apparently for a long time now.  That will probably scare away any of the candidates who want to take over and remake everything in their own view of the MLB world (like Cherington, but I would note that a team that has been arguably on the leading edge of analytics, Boston, got rid of him after a short period of time, and has done well since that decision).

Great Opportunity, Not as Limiting as Some Think

Moreover, I think that this is a great opportunity for someone who has different ideas that they want to implement, while understanding the overarching goals that Baer and Sabean has set down.  That is, where the new hire understands the general long term directions from the top, but gets (mostly) full leeway to implementing that strategy in however way he/she wants.  Sabean in the past, per Colletti interviews, gave his lieutenants a lot of leeway to do their jobs, and to expand beyond their jobs.   So the Giants will not necessarily be against the next Sabean who wants to come in and trade away his Matt Williams equivalent (Bumgarner, mainly, in this case, though Posey also).

I say mostly because, as I noted, there will be limitations on what any new hire can do.  Like any other team.  For example, ownership gets final say on any big money free agent.  Maybe they don't want to pay Harper $500M, even if that gets him to sign the contract.  Any trade of iconic players like Posey, Bumgarner, Crawford, will need to be vetted by ownership and probably Sabean, as well.  That's going to happen whether with the Giants or any other team, that's the reality that's not acknowledged when Naysayers are down about Sabean being part of the decisioning process.

And this is the same ownership group that okayed Sabean trading away Matt Williams, which was not a popular trade, to say the least.  The Lunatics were wrong in that regard.  Who went out and paid big money for Bonds, Zito, Rowand, Pence, Cueto, Samardzija.   Who was okay with drafting Posey when the rumors were that he was looking for $12M, not the $6M plus that he got from the Giants, which was still the highest paid bonus for a draftee when he signed.  Who paid big record-type bonus money for AnVil, RafRod, Lucius Fox, and now signed Luciano, the second best IFA prospect for that time period.

So, to say that the new GM will be hamstrung is hyperbole, and undoubtedly coming from Naysayerism.  There are limitations on any new GM with any team.  And the Giants under this ownership group, has been very open to trading away popular players, spending huge gobs of money on free agents, spending record setting amounts of money on draftees and IFAs (Posey, Bart; AnVil, RafRod, Fox).  Heck, Sabean talked about trading away Lincecum way back when, before he was The Franchise, but still, he had clearly electrified the fan base already.  It's all about making good baseball moves.

It is just that keeping good players is a good baseball move, you can't always project who will get injured in their 30's, and if you avoid all 30 YO's, you will miss out on many good players.  Moreover, there are NO teams that win championships without players in their 30's contributing significant production.  Avoiding 30 YO is just consigning your team to struggle when there is experienced contributors who can add value.

Thus, when I see people complaining about the big contracts given to non-performing players, I know that they are just not seeing the whole picture.   These deals happens, and not only happens, but will happen if a GM is doing all he or she can to win, you have to take risks as GM, and that will result in failures sometimes, or even oftentimes.  Specific deals (like Samardzija or Melancon) can be criticized, but seeing broad strokes about this shows that they are not being rational, in my mind.  A GM who takes no risk is a GM who will never win a championship.

Giants Long-Term Strategy

I believe the long term strategy is the one that Sabean has been spouting in interviews from at least 20 years ago to recently, when discussing the Giants:  pitching and defense.  That's the formula that Sabean wanted to run with but was hamstrung by the need to win and the need to keep Barry Bonds around and happy.  That's the formula he enabled by drafting almost only pitchers with his first round picks (after a couple of early position players) until Barr came in and the Giants selected Posey (which probably was going to happen with or without Barr).  That's the formula that drove the winning from 2009 to 2016.

I don't think that would be a huge negative factor for most GM candidates.  It would scare away most of the ardent saber-oriented GM candidates, would be my guess, but I don't believe that they know everything either.  Anyone who can't see the extra value in having good pitching, both starting and relieving, in the playoffs isn't seeing the playoffs.  Isn't paying attention to the studies regarding success in the playoffs, which found that it is defense - pitching and fielding - that leads to playoff success, not offense.  Isn't seeing the value a good starting pitcher brings to any game:  take any game, any team, and compare their ace's WAR/start with the cumulative WAR of the rest of their lineup, and you'll see that a good starting pitcher has a huge effect on the outcome of any game he starts.

Pitching and Hitting

I am convinced that offense blinds everyone to how important pitching is. I know I was, for years, until the data led me elsewhere.  And it makes sense, Babe Ruth and the homerun revolution he started made baseball the popular sport it is today.  And the juiced ball/human era that we were recently in, saved baseball after their disastrous strike in the mid-1990's.   Baseball was dead to me when they cancelled the World Series, it took McGwire vs. Sosa to bring me back into the fold.

As I've been showing with my PQS analysis, it shows how powerful it is to have a well pitched game.  While that's a no brainer, what's not acknowledged at all is that there are select pitchers who are able to throw a well pitched game more often than not, and when you have a rotation of them, that makes the job of getting through the playoffs much easier, even with a moribund offense, as the Giants often had during their dynasty period.   As I noted, compare an ace's WAR/start with the lineup's WAR, and you'll see why I am so adamant about pitching, and especially starting pitching, as a way to win the playoffs, and go deep into the playoffs.

Pitching is not the silver bullet, I would add.  But in a game where BABIP random luck can reduce the best hitters to their team's worse in any short series, and similarly for their best pitchers, you want as many advantages that you can throw at the BABIP gods that you can.  And good to great pitching, whether starters or relievers, is one of them.  And as one saying goes, Fielding never goes on a slump.

And long term studies have shown this.  As I noted in my business plan (link to it on the side), two major studies by two major saber analytics sites (Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs/THT) found that offense is not tied to winning deep into the playoffs, that it is defense - pitching and fielding - that can be tied to winning deep into the playoffs.  So put down these studies because they were done about a dozen years ago, but that still covered 35 years of playoffs, including the increased offense of the juiced era, around 10 years worth of that.

Draft in the Head

People have been complaining - vehemently - that the Giants were falling down on their job of finding good player, and hence Evans and Sabean should be replaced.  I've been saying that the team has been handicapped by being a winning team (and really, mediocre record is also hurtful as well; that's why teams tank, to get the best odds for finding good players).  So I took a look at the picks from 2010 to 2018.

Adding up the odds of each pick, assuming that 18.0 bWAR is the level at which a player is considered good, it means that out of the first round picks in that period from 2010 to 2018 (except for 2016, when there was no pick), we can expect to find one good player among all those picks, on average.

And the Giants look to be about average, with Ramos and Bart looking like good prospects for being a good player, at some point in their careers.  And, of course, we'll have to wait 2-6 seasons to see if either pans out, or if they strike out as prospects, but one making it would bring the Giants to average for that period.  And for a while there, we thought Panik would have been that 1 good prospect, but now we are not even sure if he'll even be useful (which I've defined as 9.0-17.9 bWAR).  And Duffy is about to be useful (he's at 8.8 bWAR now).

And as I've been telling people, it takes time to develop prospects.  The 2013 draft, 5 years ago, still has Arroyo, Fargas, and Arenado as prospects still grinding things out.  The 2014 draft has Beede, Garcia, Slater, Webb (who just got back from TJS and had a great return), Coonrod (also TJS return), Cole.  The 2015 draft has Shaw, Suarez, Miller just broke out this season, Marshall, and Duggar had a nice start to his MLB career, producing 1.1 bWAR in about a fifth of a season, roughly, so roughly 5 WAR seasonal rate, which if he could replicate for a full season in 2019, would be a great start to his career, but even a 3 WAR would be good.  Then all the others in 2015, 16, 17, and 18.

For all the complaints of lack of production, many are on the cusp of breaking out soon.  Duggar next season should be in the majors, and as noted, just in a short stint, and with up and down results, he generated a 5 WAR seasonal rate.  I think we'll be happy just with 2-3 WAR.  Suarez had a nice first season, he had a long stretch of dominance (low 2's ERA) after some early MLB hiccups, which is normal (see Lincecum).  Shaw and Slater could be in the majors in 2019, as well, perhaps starting as well.  Many of the others named should be in the upper minors in 2019, on the cusp of making the majors, and contributing.

But it's hard to argue with people who openly state that they won't care if they look stupid next year after saying all this stuff now, if they are wrong.  It is also hard to argue with angry people, as, even though I just explained everything to them in great detail, they circle back to their original complaint, ignorant (or plain dismissive) of what I've been sharing.

I'm realizing that I'm wasting a lot of time trying to teach people who don't want to be taught, they would rather rage and hate, and be negative.  That seems to be the era we are in now, people are very polarized, and it's scary.  So I'm trying to take a step back in engaging going forward, particularly in social media, it seems to be a net-net loss for me, a waste of time, these people are not willing to understand the perspective of others, .  Except for racism, that's where I draw the line.

Deja Vu

As I've been saying, all of this seems to be a repeat of about ten years ago, when the Giants had a nice starting rotation (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez then; D-Rod, Suarez, Stratton now), blossoming bullpen (Wilson and Romo then; Moronta and Black now, maybe Okert too), and some interesting prospects in the minors (Posey and Bumgarner then; Bart and Ramos now, and we got Duggar, Slater, Shaw pushing to get AB's).

As much as people don't understand, the math works:  per Pythagorean, if you have a Top RA in the majors, you can win the 90 games most teams need to make the playoffs by scoring poorly (but not the worse).  A lousy 4.00 RS average would yield 90 wins with a great 3.53 RA average.

And the current rotation has that potential, as I showed in my prior post.  All have produced in the mid-3 ERA range or better, and quality across the whole rotation pays off as there will be less games that are blow-outs, giving even poor offenses a chance to win.  And bullpens help to retain those wins.

And maybe it won't work in 2019, I don't know for certain that it will.  But the classic car is there, and it is running on about 6 cylinders out of 8 right now, and just needs a power bat or two (or even guys who get on at a high OBP, like McCutchen, who apparently the Yankees are taking a liking to, and might pursue because Gardner is getting old and less productive) to rev up the engine and get that car on the championship road.

Much like ten years ago, I think a lot of these people will be wrong saying that the Giants are too old and untalented to compete in the near-term (3-5 years).  Also, much like then, I'm glad I'll get to see what happens as the Giants try to compete going forward, as I doubt that they are going to blow up the team, not with the young starting rotation, not with the good bullpen, not with Bart looking like he'll be up by 2020.  Much like then, I'll speak my mind, but shake my head when I take their abuse.

2019 Scenarios

Given that the Giants are taking their time meeting with candidates, I think that they have a long term plan that they want to execute, and is looking for a candidate who they feel can accomplish their goals, while infusing new talent, ideas, and methodology into the organization.  Meanwhile, they are probably going to have Sabean handle GM duties until they find that person, and he's probably going to sign some bats.

I can see trades being made with Panik, and Belt, perhaps, but Belt has a way to limit the teams he can be traded to, so he'll be tough to trade, as Pavlovic noted in his article talking about how the Giants contracts greatly limits any blowing up strategic plans.  And he's a great fielding 1B, he was just listed again by the Fielding Bible people as a top defensive 1B again.  So I would rather keep him around, especially since he's willing to go to LF, people knock his defense there, but I think if given time, he'll be fine out there:  I mean, if Duvall can be a top fielding LF, I don't see why Belt can't either, Belt had legs good enough for stealing early in his career.  But he is an asset, so we'll see, as nobody is safe, if another team wants to give up a stupid amount of baseball talent for him.

I mainly see the Giants going all in to get Harper, and if it's just money, I don't think they'll be out bid (but no free agent is focused just on money, so we'll see how the other factors come into play).

No Harper Valley PTA (Playing at The ATT)

However, the more likely scenario is that the Giants lose out on him, and have to move on to other players.  I think McCutchen would be a great add, mainly because he gives us a great alternative if Duggar has any hiccups in becoming our leadoff hitter.  I still expect Duggar to be the starting CF, but where he bats will depend on whether he can continue hitting as well as he was when he was injured.  But Cutch talked about how hard it was to hit here, plus the Yankees are looking for a replacement for Gardner, who's getting old, so I don't think he's likely anymore, though possible.

There are not many other areas for upgrades, barring trades.  Posey is our starting C, with Hundley probably the backup, unless Garcia impressed that much that they would be okay with him starting if Posey is out beyond Opening Day.  Belt at 1B, as long as he's healthy, he's the best option.  Crawford as well at SS.  Longoria at 3B, I have noted his great hitting on the road, showing that his hitting is still good, and he finally had a good home series at the end, so I'm hoping he carries that into 2019 and beyond.  Duggar in CF, have to go with him.  That leaves 2B, LF, and RF.

2B Scenarios

As much as I believe in Panik's bat and glove, the Giants need to improve their lineup, assuming that they decide to pursue the pennant in Bochy's last contracted season, and there are some good hitters available at 2B, like DJ LaMahieu, Marwin Gonzalez, or even Jed Lowrie, who won't expect that long a contract at 35 YO.  And Ian Kinsler wouldn't that bad an alternative either, at his age, one year should do it, as he still controls the bat well, making contact, and getting walks too, plus would provide plus defense, which Panik surprisingly has been bad at in recent years.

So I can see the Giants signing one of these guys as one of the team's first moves, and then simultaneously trading Panik to get an asset for him, instead of just non-offering him and losing him.  Given the Yankee's MI situation, and Panik's NY roots, and the Giants recent deal with NY, seems like a good match there, as Panik would become their utility MI, but first be their starting SS while their starter is out.

They could make him our utility MI, but given Sandoval being around probably, that means that Arnaud (should we resign him) and Hanson would be in AAA, and the Giants seem to want to use Hanson in the utility MI role.  Plus, Panik is probably going to be paid in the $4.2M range (per MLBTR), which is a lot for a bench player.  But he would be much better insurance than having Hanson and Arnaud around.

Sonny Gray Bandwagon

Speaking of the Yankees, they are already open about trading Sonny Gray.  Maybe the Giants can work out some sort of deal with Panik and including a pitching prospect to seal the deal.   Sure, the Giants have a ton of starters, and I still hope to resign Holland, but Gray is too good a pitcher not to take a chance on him, particularly since he had a 3.17 ERA on the road, 6.98 ERA in Yankee Stadium.  He appears to be suffering from Ed Whitson Syndrome:  can't play in Yankee Stadium.

If we get him, then it would be Bumgarner, Gray, D-Rod, Suarez, Stratton, and maybe Holland, plus there's Samardzija, as well, who I'm wondering would be better off in our bullpen.  I'm still liking the idea of a 6-man rotation, giving all our starters extra rest, and also removing the 6th starter when there is a day off, much like how teams used to do it with 5 starters.  WE have all these arms, and none of them should be in the minors, why not use them as MLB starters?

The only concern for me is his issues dealing with the pressures of pitching in NY.  You worry about guys like that in the playoffs.  For example, I noted during the 2014 playoffs  how up and down both Hudson and Peavy were in the playoffs, particularly Peavy, who basically was pretty bad.  But Gray pitched well for the A's, and I know it's SSS, but you still need to get through the season, and I'm salivating over the 3.17 ERA on the road.  I'll take my chances with him.

LF Scenarios

Another spot for improvement would be LF.  It is a question mark because we don't know if Shaw, Slater, or Williamson will do enough to win the starting role.  There could be a platoon situation, with Shaw (LHH) and Williamson (RHH) sharing the starting role.   But I expect Williamson to get the shot, which would allow Shaw some AAA time to work on ingraining the changes that he learned while on the MLB roster this September.

Ironically, if the Yankees do retain McCutchen and let go of Gardner, Gardner at 35 YO is still a good hitter and fielder, and could be a nice one year deal at a reasonable price for LF, and two years is not out of the question, given his WAR production in 2018.  The bonus here is that he still plays a good CF, and, given that, might also be able to handle RF for us as well.  He could be the starting RF or LF, combining with Duggar for a very good defensive OF, depending on the third OF, and would be our backup starting CF if anything happens to Duggar. 

Other options include Marwin Gonzalez (!, apparently he can play LF and 2B), CarGo, John Jay, and a couple of guys with options, Gerraldo Parra and Gardner have team options and buyouts.  And with Gardner as backup CF, means we don't have to keep Gorkys, who had another horrendous half a season, this time in the second half.  Slater and Williamson could be the backups, should they get Gardner and another corner OF.

RF Scenarios

Lastly, RF is the most obvious area for a free agent pickup.  As noted, Cutch would be nice, but he's not a sure thing.  And his defense in RF was bad, so he might be a better LF option.  If the Yankees give up on Gardner, no matter what happens with Cutch (forgot, but the Yankees might want to sign Harper over Cutch), I think Gardner would be a great pickup for a year or two, his defense per DRS is still elite, even at his age, and that's due to his speed, which he still got some, based on his SB totals.  He hasn't played any RF in his MLB career, basically, but even last season he was elite per DRS in CF, as well as LF, so I believe he'll be elite in RF for the Giants.

And looking at Gardner's stats, between Cutch and Gardner, Gardner is probably the better leadoff hitter as well as the superior, by far, fielder.  And with his speed, he'll love Death Valley.  I would rank Gardner above Cutch at this point for one of the OF spots, seems like a no-brainer to me, as Cutch probably expects a multi-year deal at least 3 years long, while Gardner probably would be happy with a two year deal, and at less annual value than Cutch.

But since he's been a Yankee his whole career, they would have to walk away from him first, probably, before he consider other team's offers.  He might even wait out the Yankees and see how they settle things in their outfield, before he starts engaging with other teams.  We'll see.  But Sabean likes to strike fast and with good money, so he could go after Gardner, should the Yankees buy out his option.

What I'll Want to See

One thing I've been realizing over the years is that sometimes I just talk about what I see the Giants doing, but not what I'll like to see happen.  Part of that is because I wasn't absolutely sure myself.  But I'll give it a shot, since I think I have stated my preferences above.

As much as I think Panik is still a good player, it just seems to work with the Giants trading him for Sonny Gray, probably with a prospect.  I will want to pick up Holland as well, and go with a 6-man rotation, which the Giants were willing to entertain when Ohtani might come to the Giants.  I would move Samardzija into the pen for 2019.  With his bad shoulder affecting him all year, we can't rely on him as a starter, but he could be a great arm out of the pen, and be another guy who can go long if necessary in a relief role.  With the idea of him returning to the rotation in 2020.   That would free up relievers to be traded, see what bundle will get us the best prospect package, I only want to hold onto Smith, Watson, Moronta, the rest are interchangeable.

Of course, that opens up the 2B spot.  There are a lot of good options out there among the free agents:  DJ LaMahieu, Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, Ian Kinsler.  These would be good options, probably in that order, though I would suspect the Giants would go after them in reverse order, as it would take a shorter cheaper contract to sign the older guys.   

As much as I want to see Mac get a shot in LF, especially after he did so well for us in AAA and that first glorious week in the majors, 2018, it would be better for our 2019 chances to sign two corner OF.   I would be good with getting Cutch for LF, Gardner for RF.  Then we would be assured, assuming health, of good hitters up and down the lineup, with Duggar being the biggest question mark, production wise.  Good other options include:  Marwin Gonzalez, CarGo, John Jay, and a couple of guys with options, Gerraldo Parra and Gardner have team options and buyouts. 

Marwin Bandwagon

Marwin is actually a great super utility guy.  He plays almost every position at average or better over this career (a little below average at 3B).   In addition, he has hit okay enough that it's not much of a drop to start him over any starter, and he hits LHP almost as well as he does RHP, and actually has hit better away than at home. 

He would probably love to just stay at one spot and start there, and the Giants could do that for him at 2B.  But then he could rest other starters, while the Giants give, say, Hanson (or Panik) spot starts at 2B.   He'll be 30 YO in 2019, and since he's not a starter, probably won't get a very long contract, so maybe a 2 year contract at around $10M with a team option for the third year, might be enough to get him to sign with a team, which would be his 32 YO season.  He'll be like the Mark DeRosa signing, someone who hits well enough, while playing multiple infield and outfield positions at plus defense. 

Rosterbation

So, after all that, the 25-man roster would look like this:

SP:  Bumgarner, Gray, D-Rod, Holland, Suarez, Stratton
RP:  Melancon, Smith, Watson, Samardzija (or maybe he takes Stratton's place), Moranto, Black (which means Dyson and Strickland are traded), with Adon waiting in the wings
Bench:  Hundley, Sandoval, Hanson, Williamson, Slater (Slater might be AAA if they want another RP/LRP)
IF:  Posey, Belt, Marwin/Kinsler/LeMahieu, Longoria, Crawford
OF:  Cutch/CarGo, Duggar, Gardner/Cutch (if Gardner's option picked up by Yankees)