Your 2018 Giants: Rule 5 Draft: Lose One, Gain One

In the Rule 5 Draft today, the Giants selected the Rockies flame throwing RHP, Julian Fernandez, who has been recorded as hitting 102 MPH before.  Just 22 YO, the Giants are paying $100K to find out if this right-handing can jump to the majors from A-ball, where he did pretty well.

Meanwhile, the D-backs grabbed Albert Suarez from the Giants.  He was valuable in 2016, and the D-backs clearly hope to return him to that for 2018, after a poor 2017 season.


ogc thoughts

Julian Fernandez sounds interesting.  He had a 3.26 ERA in the Sally, with a good 57/18 K/BB ratio of 3.2 and 8.8 K/9 (only 58 IP in relief; he has never started a game).  As MLB.com noted, he's got the best velocity outside of Chapman, and noted what a pair he and Roldofo Martinez, who also throws 102 MPH, would make in the Giants bullpen.  Fangraphs noted his velocity and wildness, and Steamer projects 6.40 ERA, while Clay Davenport translation had him as 5.53 ERA

Here is what MLB.com noted: "Fernandez is one of the hardest throwers in the Minor Leagues, reaching 102 mph with his fastball, though he lacks a reliable secondary pitch and doesn't have much of a history of throwing strikes. He had a 3.26 ERA and 57/18 K-BB ratio in 58 relief innings in low Class A."  Odd that it's noted that the don't throw strikes as he got 57 in 58 IP, plus 3.2 K/BB ratio, which is good.  He wasn't ranked on the Rockies Top 30 by MLB Pipeline, though.

Reminds me some of when the Giants moved Jonathan Sanchez to the majors pretty fast, after a great season in the low minors (same A-ball league, Sally), and that is pretty good command of his pitches, with that good K/BB ratio (though only 86th in the Sally, and K/9 only 65th; and he was slightly better than the league in BB/9, K/9, K/BB while basically same age as league, basically league average), though not as good as Dirty did, who overpowered everyone and had a huge K/9.

As usual, the Giants zigs when everyone zags.  Fernandez was not mentioned in any of the Rule 5 Draft articles I read through.  Looking over some of the other names, Nestor Cortes of the Yankees was grabbed, and he's a lefty who has had success in AAA, with a great ERA and strikeout rate.  He could have made a nice loogy.  Still, 102 MPH speed is very attractive, and would work as well on LHH as RHH (however, not in the minors, LHH hit him pretty well, .330/.380/.420/.800 in 108 PA with .400 BABIP; maybe he's viewed as a great roogy, only .169/.248/.234/.482 with .225 BABIP).  .

But, oof, that's a huge jump to reach the majors from there, no matter how you slice it.  We'll see if the Giants scouts got it right or not.  They must see some way to improve his off-speed pitch for him, or maybe liked what he did on the road, where he was slightly better, 9.5 K/9 with 3.50 K/BB.  That gets him to roughly 45th in the league in K/9 (jumped 20 spots) and 72nd in K/BB (hardly better there), and drops his WHIP to great 1.088.

I like the move, quality arm, and maybe Tidrow can do some magic with him, like he did with others.  If you can corral his fastball, maybe they can figure out how to get him to cut something off his slider without losing his mechanics, and that would do it.  He just needs one great off-speed pitch to make him MLB worthy, and maybe it could be teaching him another pitch that he hasn't tried before or done much with before.

Bullpen Jam

Looks like, unless there is a trade of a reliever, that Crick will have even greater speed competition for that last spot in the bullpen.  Of course, Okert and Osich will be back to battle for that spot as well.  I had thought the Giants would want a loogy for this last spot, but I guess his speed was too good to pass up.

Still, only $50K (if they return back to original team, they get $50K back) to see if he can stick (or, sometimes a team can work out a trade so that they can keep the Rule 5 draft pick).  That's worth the risk, given how well he did in A-ball as a 22 YO, and his god-given velocity, something you can't teach.

Thought Maybe CF

I was hoping the Giants would pick up a strong defensive CF from the Rule 5 Draft.  Seems like those type of CF are dime a dozen in the minors, thought at least one interesting one would be available.  In particular, Jose Cardona of the Rangers, because he's not only good defensively, but also makes good contact.

But this also fits in with their goal to upgrade their bullpen, having a 102 MPH flame thrower would certainly perk up this bullpen.  Perhaps this will free up the Giants to try to use the value of one of their relievers (Strickland, Gearrin, maybe Dyson, to work out a trade for a good defensive CF or a power-hitting 3B, though I still think they are going to end up with a slimmer Sandoval as their starting 3B in 2018).

Bye to Suarez

Good luck to Suarez, but with Blach, Stratton, Beede, and even Andrew Suarez, all knocking on the door to the Giants bullpen or starting rotation, there really was no opportunity for him here, and hence why he was dropped from the 40-man.  I guess the D-back had no space at that time to pick him up, because a waiver call would have been cheaper, I would think, and no worries about sending him back.