2016: Dodger's SP Depth Takes a Hit

Ran across a few articles regarding LA's starting pitching problems:

• Fangraphs:  Dodgers Pitching Depth Begins to Erode  The losses of Anderson and Ryu has left the Dodgers with five starters they can rely on to start the season.  
• LA Times:   Dodgers pick rookie Ross Stripling as No. 5 starter  Then LA reduced by Bolsinger injury to pick from two guys who have some name recognition in Frias and Lee, but makes a left turn to Albuquerque and selects Stripling, who wasn't even considered as a possibility for the rotation this spring.
• Chronicle:  Can Pitching Strapped Dodgers Threaten the Giants   Jenkins basically notes the sudden importance of Kenta Maeda now that Anderson is out with his back issues.
• USA Today: After rash of spring injuries, will Dodgers pay for coupon-clipping winter?   Nightingale notes all the injuries, not just pitchers
• Fangraphs: Grading the Off Seasons for All 30 Teams  But this article by Cameron disagrees and ranked LA's off season as 6th best in the majors, even better than the Giants at 8th. 

Thought I would continue my previous thoughts on the Dodgers.  Was trying to get this out before the season started, so apologies if this post isn't the best, but I just want to get it out.

ogc thoughts

As I had noted in the off-season, the Dodgers were betting on health from players they had no right to expect health from, Anderson, who in 2015 had his first full season since his rookie year long ago, and Ryu, who has been on the injury merry-go-round since last season.  Now the rotation they are relying on is:

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Kenta Maeda
4. Alex Wood
5. Mike Bolsinger Zach Lee?  Ross Stripling???

Kershaw is Kershaw, what can anyone say?  But the rest of the rotation is iffy.  Kazmir is suppose to be their #2 starter.  And based on his 3.10 ERA last season, that seems reasonable.  However, his FIP was 3.98, which is more like your middle rotation guy, not your #2.  

Maeda is an unknown quantity, made more so by the fact that his medicals was so bad that the Dodgers put in a lot of bonuses in his contract based on games started, which basically means that Maeda bet on himself to be healthy and making all his starts, and the Dodger's medical staff, however, saw enough problems that they advised the front office not to offer that big a guaranteed contract.  It appears that Maeda really wanted to pitch in the majors and didn't want to wait another year, so they worked out this lower base contract that becomes decent (by MLB starter's standards) when he starts enough games.  Fangraphs project him at 3.3 WAR!  Given that the Dodgers wouldn't give him a fully guaranteed deal, that just seems too optimistic even for a projection system.  

Alex Wood had a down year to start with the Braves, and it went worse with the Dodgers, even though they play in an extreme pitcher's park.  And he actually did great there, 2.41 ERA in 5 starts.  It was his 6.14 ERA in 7 starts on the road that killed him.  Many were hitter's parks for sure - Coors and Chase, Citizens and PNC - but he also lucked out with 1 R/ER in GAB.  His FIP of 3.69 says that he was right about where he was suppose to be.  But that's pretty good for a #4 starter, so there is that too.

They were already iffy with Mike Bolsinger battling Zach Lee for the #5 spot, after Anderson went down with back issues needing surgery, putting him out at least to mid-season, if not the whole season, plus Ryu continuing to have shoulder issues, putting him out to May.  Reportedly Ryu is not feeling pain, only feeling normal soreness, but he missed all of 2015, so it's not like he's coming back all that quick either, he'll have to pitch in instructional league or AAA before coming up.  

Then after sending Lee down, Bolsinger in his first start as the anointed #5 starter on Tuesday, felt something grab his side and after feeling it again, took himself out of the game, with the Dodgers announcing soon after that he would not be making opening day.   So presumably Lee would be brought back to battle with Beachy and Frias for that #5 spot.  

Nope:  Ross Stripling wins the #5 starting job.  Stripling, so good and close to the majors that Baseball America ranked him 23rd in their farm system (not even that good within his own farm system) for 2016.  So good that the highest he has ever pitched is AA, where he had a 3.88 ERA and dominating (not...) 7.4 K/9 while pitching to his peers (he's slightly older than average for AA, 25 YO, 0.6 years older than the league).   Good control at 2.5 BB/9, for OK 2.89 K/BB.  But per Baseball Forecast, MLE of 5.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, which I guess is good for #5 starter, but the whole idea, I thought, of letting Greinke go was to beef up the rest of the rotation to make up for the loss of all that pitching goodness that Greinke gave them last season.

Of course, some of this is just temporary.  Bolsinger should be back relatively soon.  Though, as I had noted somewhere before, after his good start in the majors, he fell back to the mean:  he had nice 3.62 ERA for the season, but after super first 7 starts to the season, 2.08 ERA in 7 starts, 43.1 IP, only 30 hits and 14 walks, vs. 36 strikeouts and only 2 HRs, good for .549 OPS, in his next 14 starts, 4.64 ERA, 66.0 IP, with 74 hits and 31 walks, only 62 K's but with 9 HRs, good for .793 OPS.  So, in other words, probably not that much better than Stripling.

And Ryu should be back sometime in May, but he has not pitched in a game in over a season now and counting, and like Lincecum's rumored showcase, his return date kept on getting pushed back and back.  Anderson is suppose to be back by mid-season, but until 2015, he had not pitched in a full season since his rookie season, I believe 2009 or 2010, so, personally, if I were a Dodger fan, I would not rest my hopes on his returning and doing well.  I would view him as a bonus, if and when he's on the mound in a regular season game.

But what do I know.  I've been saying that they don't have enough to win the past couple of seasons, and to their credit, they have (though, sabermetrically, the Giants were just as good as LA last season, only they had bad luck while LA had good luck;  of course, that means that they should regress down to the mean this season, while we regress upward).  Still don't make their pitching rotation issues a big head scratcher though.