Your 2016 Giants: A Team With a Plan for High Velocity and K's

Fangraphs recently published a research piece titled, "The Giants are Sneaking Into the Velocity Era" and below is my comment regarding that stance.


ogc thoughts

If anything, the Giants are returning to the velocity era that they helped promulgate, if not create, not sneaking in.

Per the chart in the article linked above, the Giants had a higher velocity than the majors in 7 out of 8 years from 2003-2010, before the league finally caught up with them in 2011.  They had a variety of high velocity pitchers during that period, in Lincecum, Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Casilla.  And the majors did not catch up with the Giants peak until 2013.

Stability => Increasing Age => Decreasing Velocity

As the other commenter noted, Lincecum was losing velocity steadily during that down period, plus we lost Wilson out of the bullpen.  Also, the Giants pitching staff was remarkably stable during that period 2011-2015, as 8 pitchers out of 12 roster spots.  And you know what comes with age:  loss in velocity.

And 4 of 5 rotation spots, had the same player in 2011 as 2015 in there at some points.  Plus nearly a 9th pitcher, Zito, who was in there from 2011-2014, was a big contributor to the drop, along with Lincecum.

Furthermore, guys added in recent years - Petit, Hudson, Peavy, Heston - did not have a lot of velocity, and was older to boot, which means lower velocity as a starting point as well.

Giants Strategy For Handling MLB Trend Towards Increasing K/Velocity

I view this more as a result of the focus in the recent period on position players, as ignited with the addition of John Barr to the Front Office.  They had the pitching coming to fruition, so they started drafting a lot of position players after he joined the team.  That focus meant less top bullets (first pick for over a decade under Sabean/Tidrow was spent on pitching) spent on pitching, more on hitting.  And that forced a reliance on free agents and trades for replacing pitching, which contributed to the velocity drop, as most free agents and traded players are old and don't have much velocity (Samardzija notwithstanding).

But look at the top ranked pitchers added to the system once the 2010 decade began:  Crick, Beede, Bickford, Strickland, Osich, Black.  And they picked up Casilla to boot (for free!).  These are all guys with velocity to burn, along with other high velocity prospects who are making some noise in the system.  If you run through some of the first 10 rounds picks in the recent drafts, you will find higher velocity (95 MPH+) to be a commonality with them, along with the guys who they also value, who have a lot of average tools but no stuff.

I believe that this is part of their M.O., with the recent drop related more to circumstance than strategic intent.  Perusing a list of guys with homers off pitches that are 95 MPH and higher, I found a good number of Giants on that list - Pence, Belt, Posey, Crawford, Morse when he was on the team, Sandoval - so it led me to wonder if the Giants were countering the trend towards strikeouts and higher velocity by focusing on guys who make good contact (i.e. strike out less) and can cause damage even with high velocity offerings (hit high velocity pitches for power).  Add on top of that all the pitchers that they have drafted high with high velocity, and that seems to be a pattern to me, a plan to counter the rising tide of strikeouts and velocity.