Your 2015 Giants: Some Notes on Cubs

I haven't had time to delve into series for a while, but thought I would throw down some info.  Go Giants!


ogc thoughts

Cubs are only 27-24 at home, while the Giants are 29-25 on the road.  It was noted by one of the beat writers that the Cubs luck out by missing Bumgarner, but they are 14-9 vs. LHP, 44-39 vs. RHP.  Giants are also better against LHP, 15-9, than RHP, 44-39.   Lester is a LHP, facing Vogelsong, who is taking over for Leake, who has a strained hamstring, in game 2.  Both are above .500 vs. winning teams, but Cubs are 27-21 while the Giants are only 17-15.  Lastly, Cubs have been 12-8 while the Giants were 15-5 in their last 20 games, but both are 17-13 in last 30 games.

Looks like it will be a tight series.  Giants are hoping to at least split the four game series, which would make this a 5-5 road trip, which is OK.  Ideally they win 3, to put some distance between the two teams, who are battling for the 2nd wild card spot at the moment.  And, of course, that would help in getting closer to the NL West lead as well.   Likewise, they cannot lose 3 games or more in this series, or the Cubs would put some distance between the two teams.

Looking at the below, looks like it would be tough to win the series, and possible we lose the series. But Wrigley has been playing like a pitcher's park this season, while it was neutral in prior seasons, so their home numbers are skewed some, as can be seen by their 27-24 home record so far, in spite of the nice starters numbers below.  Both teams' bullpens are about equal, 3.77 ERA for Cubs, 3.84 ERA for Giants.

However, the Giants have been 29-11 in Pence starts, 17-6 since he returned from the DL, 8-4 on the road since returning from the DL, 10-5 in his last 15 starts.  Go Giants!

Game 1:  Heston vs. Hammel

Heston only has a 3.98 ERA on the road (includes his no-hitter vs. NY Mets) but 6-1 record.  Hammel has a 3.08 ERA at home in 9 starts but only 1-2 so far, and the Cubs were only 3-6 in his home starts.

Game 2:  Vogelsong vs. Lester

Lester has 3.27 ERA at home, but the Cubs are 6-7 in his starts in spite of that.   He's getting extra rest than normal because he was scheduled to pitch on Monday August 3 but not his start is on August 7, that's 8 days of rest.  More rest generally leads to better performance, but when it has been so many more days, could put him out of rhythm (one can hope).   But 0.52 ERA in two starts against Giants.

Vogie has had a 3.48 ERA in starts after getting placed in the rotation regularly after Peavy was DLed, with a 3.98 ERA on the road in starts after getting place in the rotation.   Giants are 9-7 in his starts, 4-4 in road starts.   He has a 3.86 ERA vs. Cubs since returning to the Giants.

Game 3:  Cain vs. Hendricks

Hendricks have never faced the Giants before.  He has a 3.23 ERA at home this season.  Cubs are 6-3 in his starts at home.  He is getting 7 days of rest between starts.

Cain has not pitched much this season, so everything is extreme SSS.  He has a 6.00 ERA in 4 road starts, and one good start out of four.

Game 4:  Peavy vs. Arrieta

Arrieta has gone 6-1 with a 1.37 ERA over his last 9 starts.  He's 1-1 with 3.46 ERA in two career starts against the Giants.  3.07 ERA at home this season, though the Cubs were only 4-6 in Arrieta starts.

Peavy has a 4.37 ERA on the road this season in 4 starts, but if you count only his road starts since he returned from the DL, he has a 3.37 ERA in 3 road starts, where the Giants were 2-1.   He has a 3.78 ERA in 9 Wrigley starts, 4.15 ERA in his last 3 Wrigley starts.