Your 2014 Giants: Playoff PQS Analysis

I was just looking at the Giants stats when I realized that I had not done the Giants 2014 Playoffs PQS analysis.  So here it is.

ogc thoughts

The Giants had some very good luck in this championship.  But it doesn't take this analysis to see this, any observer can see that we won because of Bumgarner.  But because he can't pitch every game, or even every other game (see Christy Mathewson in 1905), there were some good (or good enough) performances from the rest of the rotation.

In addition, the Giants lucked out from some of the pairings:  out of six DIS starts that our pitchers unfurled in these playoffs (out of only 17 starts, so 35% DIS, which is extremely, normally lethally high, as you can expect to lose most times a DIS happens), 3 of them were matched by the other team's DIS start, and in another, the other team was barely better (1 PQS vs. 2 PQS).

So that was the first lucky thing.  That contributed greatly to the Giants sterling 3-3 record in DIS starts.  Most teams are normally 1-5 in such situations, and allowed us to win the World Series, where we had four DIS starts and still went 2-2.  We should have at best been 1-3, and there's the series.  Not that the Royals did much to deserve winning either, they had just one DOM start, three MIDs and three DIS themselves vs. the Giants two DOM starts, one MID, and four DIS starts.  Hudson was the only other Giants starter to throw a non-DIS start besides Bumgarner, who, natch, had the two DOM starts (both 5 PQS dominations).

The Giants were also lucky in tie situations where the PQS of the two teams were the same.  For such situations, I think .500 is what can be expected.  But the Giants were 5-0 during the playoffs.  They deservedly won the Wild Card and NLDS, and probably would have won the NLCS (they should have been 3-2 after five games, needing to only win one - where have we heard that one before?), but would have lost to the Royals in either 5 or 7 games.

Still, they mostly outpitched the opposition.  They had 8 starts where they outpitched the other pitcher, only 4 starts where they were outpitched.  And then there were the 5 ties, where it could go either way, generally.  As expected, they were 6-2 in games they had outpitched the other team, 1-3 in games they were outpitched, and then there was the luck involved with ties, 5-0 where both pitchers pitched equally.

In DOM starts, the Giants went 7-1.  In MID starts, they were still 2-1, and generally those seem to work out to .500 roughly.  And in DIS starts, as noted above, a nice 3-3 record.

You Know Who Led The Way

As you probably guessed, Bumgarner led the way with a 5:0/6 (87% DOM/0% DIS).  But how many knew that Hudson was next with 2:1/4 (50% DOM/25% DIS).  We don't get to Bumgarner's heroics without his stout pitching, particularly against the Nats.  And Vogelsong had a DOM start (but then followed with two DIS) for a 1:2/3 record.

Peavy, well, I've discussed his poor history in the playoffs, but I'll recap here.  Including the Giants, he has had 9 starts in the playoffs.  He has been 0:6/9 or 0% DOM/67% DIS during his career.  That is not worthy of a playoff rotation spot should we make it in 2015 or 2016, his two contract years.  Luckily, Bochy has forced out a high priced starter before (Zito and Lincecum) and is not shy about cutting short a starter if he wants to keep the game close.

Winners Vs. Buddies

That's something Dusty never learned, he let the Angels get on base five consecutive times in the third before taking Livan out, putting us behind 4-0.   And it was not like Livan was rock solid the first two innings.  Four of the first eight batters got on base the first two innings, three via walks.  Livan was just lucky he got a double-play to get out of the one out, two on situation in the first, created by his two walks to the first and third batters.  And the out was given to him, a successful sacrifice bunt.  Add in a lineout for the DP, two flyballs and the double, that's 9 batters, leading to 3 walks, 1 double, 2 flyballs, 1 lineout, 1 strikeout, and the sac bunt, not one weakly hit ball in the bunch, to go with his wild pitching.

Bochy probably would have pulled him after one of the two singles he gave up to start the third, and definitely after the HBP to fill the bases, as the game was still 1-1 at the time in the 2002 Game 7.   In 2014's Game 7, Hudson didn't make it out of the 2nd, he was pulled after allowing his fourth man on base that inning, with the score tied 2-2, runners on first and second, two outs.   So yeah, Bochy probably would have taken Livan out after the two singles would have made it six of the first ten batters to get on base, and we would have still been tied 1-1 with the Angels after 9, as Zerbe shut down the Angels, then Rueter came in and pitched the way we knew he would, 4 shutout innings.   Seemed only Dusty wanted Livan to start, most Giants fans knew Rueter was the guy we would have gone with.

And that's the beauty of Bochy.  Dusty wanted to be Livan's friend, and believe in him, and maybe work with him the next season, and it costed him that Game 7.  On the other hand, Bochy was quoted as saying, I'm "not here to make friends, I'm here to win games."  This quote still brings tears to my eyes, and I think it will still bring rings to his fingers, with the core group of players we have and potential rising in the farm.