Your 2014 Giants: Vogelsong Signs for one year, $5M plus incentives

According to reports (for example, Schulman), Vogelsong will be signing for $5M plus incentives that could bring him above $6.5M.  That's on top of the $300K he got in the buyout of the team option (which was for $6.5M) in his prior contract.  It's been noted that the Giants saves $1.2M from the prior team option that they could have exercised instead of the buyout.


ogc thoughts

On a personal basis, I'm glad to have Vogie back, he seems to be a solid guy, and more importantly, a nice, down-to-earth person.  However, from a baseball standpoint, his stats on throwing strikes and gaining swinging strikes in 2013 were in the bad buckets of the percentages:  the buckets were from a Bill James study in his handbook from this year.  I recommend it to anyone:  62% for throwing strikes which puts pitchers like Vogelsong in the low 4 ERA range, 9% for swinging strikes, which is the lowest bucket, putting pitchers in the mid-4 ERA range and higher (starts at 11% on down, so he could be over 5 ERA).  So there is some risk with taking him back on the team, he did not show any useful skills in throwing strikes last season, and his ERA could be pretty bad given that skill set.

So why did the Giants buy him out only to sign him back only for $1.2M savings?  That was roughly a 20% reduction (depending on whether you include the $300K buyout or not), why not just eat the extra $1.5M at the time of the option, rather than be pennyante?  Why bring him back rather than move on to another pitcher?  I think the answer encompasses a number of factors.

First off, I think that the reason they let Vogie go in the first place was because there was two open spots and the Giants, per all their talk in interviews this off-season, wanted to upgrade the pitching rotation over what we had in 2013 in a substantive way.  While they clearly like Vogie, since they kept the lines of communication open, it appears that given that they had no idea who they might get for the last pitching rotation spot, they had to let him go and see how the process works out because they might need to upgrade on Vogelsong depending on who they get as the 4th starter.

And that ties into my second complementary thought, which is that money was not the factor in not bringing back Vogie on his option, it was the flexibility the Giants wanted in crafting the final five in the starting rotation that drove them to buy him out.  That's why they didn't save that much, as well as provide incentives (unknown at the moment) that could push him above his option, a both sides win type of deal, should he come back to what he was in 2011-2012 and prove that 2013 was more due to WBC and short off-season issues, but some protection if he really is done.

Much like the Lincecum deal, while he didn't produce enough in 2013 to warrant his 2014 salary, you can't insult the guy with a low-ball deal filled with incentives.  You never know, that could demoralize a player enough that he subconsciously fails in a self-prophesying way.   He is worth less, so he feels "worthless."   Now, it is more a reduction to reflect how poorly he did in 2013 - something he admits - but is a show of faith that he still got something left in the tank ($5M is not chicken-feed, even in the MLB) plus gives him a chance to earn back his whole salary via the option, plus make a little more.  That is typical of Sabean deals, both sides are happy but took some compromises to get the deal done.

Thirdly was Hudson appearing to be an improvement enough that the Giants were comfortable with bringing Vogelsong back on.  If they get a huge improvement in the starter they sign for #4, then Vogie becomes viable, but if there had been significant compromises in the #4 starter, then I think the Giants would have had to work more to get an improvement over Vogie.  That is, had the Giants had to settle for a second or lower tier target signed, instead of Hudson (again, at the start, we didn't know who might sign with us, heck, at that point, it was assumed that Hudson was going back to Atlanta, as that is why he ended up there, he wanted to be near his family), Vogie might not have been an option, as the ultimate goal was to improve the rotation to be like it was in 2009-2012, when it was a top team in Runs Allowed in the majors.

Keeping Vogie did not ensure an improvement.  But Hudson looks like he's capable of a mid-3 ERA, which is pretty good, period, but especially good given the free agent market availability.   And his signing set in motion the Giants kicking of tires with other free agents as well as Vogelsong beyond initial talks until he was signed to be the #5 starter, as their other options, whoever they were, balked at their terms or was not ready to sign yet.

So Vogelsong without a strong addition didn't make sense as an improvement, because of the big question marks with his 2014 performance (as well as Lincecum to some extent).  And that fits in with what the Giants said at the time they bought out Vogelsong's option. They said that they wished that they had more time to decide on the option, but at that point in time they had to bail out. And, as noted above, it makes sense because they were not sure who they would be able to get as their #4. Again, apparently, they are happy with Vogelsong as #5 since Hudson became the #4.

Then you have the question mark 5th starter. Vogelsong might be good again but if not, the rotation could be OK, like it was in 2009-2012. If Lincecum is also bad too, then they could start with other options, starting with Petit. And Escobar did really well in AA, I feel very confident that he could step up, should the Giants need him to mid-season, much like Bumgarner did in 2010, probably not at the same level, but we don't need that, we just need a good enough season, which I think he is capable of.

Fourthly, I think his willingness to accept a one year deal brought him back.   Other free agents were wanting and getting more, in terms of both years and per year salary.  For example, Phil Hughes just signed with the Twins for 3 years, $24M and Scott Kazmir signed with the A's for 2 years, $22M, plus the Twins had already signed Nolasco for 4 years, $49M.

But the Giants consistent drum beat this off-season is both that they want to improve the starting rotation - which the Hudson signing apparently fulfilled in spades - and that they want to sign short term deals that so that the young starters rising up the minors have spots to win in the rotation.  Hughes, Nolasco, and Kazmir could have been an upgrade over Vogelsong - they were strongly discussed in the places I visit - but multiple years and/or injury history put them beyond where the Giants wanted to go, which was 1-2 years, Nolasco even more so at 4 years (I think he was their backup in case they did not get a better pitcher, like Hudson).

Fifth and complementary to the fourth is the mass of good to great pitching prospects percolating upward from the lower reaches of the minors and chomping on the bit to make the majors soon.   Sabean noted that Escobar is expected to make the leap developmentally this coming season.  By mid-season, he's probably the #1 choice to replace any starter in the rotation who is struggling, injured, or otherwise not performing to expectations.  As well, Crick has been mentioned a number of times for his potential, and he should be knocking on the door soon, he did well in Advanced A and, after a poor start, ended well in the AFL, so he should be in AA next season and, as Sabean has noted a number of times, top prospects often leap-frog over AAA to the majors, so he could be ready to join the majors permanently within the next two seasons with a good performance in AA.

As well, Blackburn, Mejia, and Blach should be making the jump to AA in 2014 as well, and all three have very good performances under their belts. I really like Blackburn and I've liked his potential more than Crick as I tend to value probability of making the majors and doing well there greater than overall talent, which Crick has in spades and why a lot of prospect hounds love him.  Mejia is just as young and accomplished as Blackburn, I didn't really know about him until DrB pointed him out, but once I researched him, I was totally on board and think a lot of his potential too.  They were 20 year olds facing 23 YO on average and doing great.  And Blach had a really good season and earned the inclusion of his name into the mix as well.

Plus, then there are all the great prospects rising to San Jose from Augusta.  Stratton and Agosta might have been at a higher level in 2013 if not for all the great prospects hogging the spots ahead of them.  They did not do as well as hoped for in spite of that, particularly Stratton, which has put a big dent into the prospect status, but I still believe a lot in both of them and still believe that they were good choices by the Giants.  Gregorio also did very well, his ERA was hurt by poor bullpen support, his peripherals were very good.  Flores did very well too, as well as Kurrasch.

None are top of rotation potential starters right now, but with Cain and Bumgarner hopefully anchoring that for years, plus Crick hopefully joining them at some point, we don't need top of rotation guys, we need a lot of back of rotation guys (at minimum, of course it would be great to have a rotation of aces) as well as strong relievers to support the starters as nobody throws that many complete games anymore.   There is a huge critical mass of pitching talent that the Giants have, the best I've seen ever in following their minor league system, maybe not that many top level talents, but we luckily don't need that, we just need cheap but very useful players at the major league level, so that we can afford to keep our core players on board.  And I think a number of them - Escobar, Blackburn, Mejia, Stratton, Agosta - could make the leap to that top of rotation status with another good season under their belt at a higher level.

Consequences For Rotation

Sabean has said that he would not make Vogie battle for a rotation spot, should he sign with us, so that presumably ends the Giants involvement in the SP free agent market.  Vogie is probably considered the incumbent and expected 5th starter for 2014, unless he falls flat on his face in spring training, so barring that - and I don't expect that - he should start the 2014 season as the 5th starter.  The Giants stopping their search could also help explain the quick follow-up of Nolasco and Hughes signing Thanksgiving week too, as the Giants dropped out as possibility for them.

In addition, the Giants can take the risk with Vogie because we have some good back-up options.  Escobar I noted, but he's probably not ready until mid-season.  I know people haven't been impressed with Petit, but the Giants during the 2009-2012 period were able to have a top pitching rotation while carrying a starter who wasn't the best, in fact, pretty bad. Johnson et al in 2009. Wellemeyer in 2010. Zito and Surkamp in 2011. Lincecum in 2012.  Furthermore, Petit did well throwing strikes in 2013 (70%), as well as getting swinging strikes (19%), both things starters need to do well to be a top pitcher. He was great at both in 2013, suggesting that he won't necessarily be the worse if given the chance to start, at minimum, which again works in our top heavy in talent rotation.

So the rotation looks good on paper. Bumgarner is ready to be the ace of any staff. Cain had a down year, but basically a year after his perfecto, he started throwing dominant starts again, at the level he was at before his perfecto, he should be back to prior goodness. Lincecum's final numbers only look really bad compared to what he did before, overall he's OK. And he was again much better in the second half than the first, plus was hurt by a large number of inherited runners scoring after he left, I think it was like 7 of 8, when normally only 2 or 3 would score. He could be like the "new" Dirty, delivering something in the low 4's or high 3's, which is OK in the 3/4 slot. Then Hudson, assuming he's back to his old self, would deliver a mid-3 ERA performance, which is good anywhere in the rotation.  That's basically the formula from 2009-2012 for starting pitching dominance, so the 5th starter being a question mark is not a huge problem unless Lincecum craters like he did in 2012 or Hudson doesn't recover back to prior goodness.

Batter Up!  LF

Schulman notes that next up is LF and that this hole is more likely to be filled via a trade than by free agency.  And as Sabean has noted in his various interviews, he has basically denigrated what is available via free agency, in terms of value for what the Giants would have to give up, plus eliminated a number of viable options because the Giants want to keep their first round draft pick.  And in his recent interview, stated that trade is probably the best option right now.

I would also note that the non-tender period is coming up soon and you never know what type of talent is made available at this time.  The Giants could pick up a player, either via trade to pre-emptively pick up someone and gain control or via free agent signing once the player is out on the marketplace.  And I would note here that both 1B and LF is in play here, depending on whether they can get someone at 1B better than Blanco on an overall basis, in which case Belt moves to LF for 2014.

Speaking of which, Tony Abreu looks likely to be non-tendered, particularly since the Giants need to open a spot for Vogelsong this week once he passes his physical.  The other players up for arbitration - Belt, Arias, Blanco, and Petit - have already been pegged for roles on the 25-man roster, and should be tendered.  And Belt, probably after they exchange figures, hopefully will be talked up by the Giants regarding a long-term deal to get him covered for his arbitration years, and perhaps beyond.  Baggerly mentioned this in his post on this, plus I've been agitating for it since the season ended, I think that is a priority item for the Giants given how much Belt could cost if he continues to improve, or even if he just repeats 2013.

In addition, Sabean has noted that Blanco might be the best option available, as he was pretty valuable the last two seasons and it is hard to upgrade over him without paying a lot of money or prospects.  It is similar to the situation we had with Zito around, it was hard to upgrade significantly over him in the starting rotation, without paying for a top of rotation starter, as he was right around average for a good number of seasons.  So the Giants is more probably shopping for a right-handed platoon partner for Blanco who is better than what Perez could provide to the team (now that Peguero has been DFAed), though if a good 1B is available, they would probably at least listen, and kick the tires.

And that dovetails into a complementary issue, which is that the Giants, both Sabean and Baer, have stated that the Giants are keeping their young pitching talent and that will limit the type of trades that they are capable of.  In particular, a right-handed complement is probably all that they can afford to trade for right now, anyway, if they are planning on keeping their top prospects.  Luckily, with such depth of pitching prospects, the Giants probably can do something in terms of picking up someone useful, the key is finding the right partner, who has what we need and likewise need what we are willing to give up.

There are a number of areas where they might trade off.  I would think that any of the guys off the Augusta rotation is fair game.  They did nicely enough, but not overwhelmingly good, which given some of their ages and experience, they should have done better.  Any lower level and you would need a package of prospects to get a deal done probably.

Sabean noted in one of his interviews that he might trade off some of his young catching to get what he needs, though I think that was before Hudson was signed, so I'm not absolutely sure that applies to LF.  But that puts both Hanchez and Susac in play (Monell was just sold to the Orioles after being DFAed along with Peguero to bring on two pitchers that other teams had DFAed, RHP Erik Cordier (free agent but with Pirates last year and Braves long-term before) and LHP Jose de Paula (Padres waiver).  Cordier, according to a Pirates blog, is a hard thrower who don't have much control, but the Pirates got him to strike out a lot more.  But they decided to release him, apparently he's already a free agent.) potentially.

In addition, Kieschnick, Brown and Panik are probably available for the right hitter.  I don't think that the Giants have given up on any of them, but at minimum we need to acknowledge that their warts are big enough that they are not necessarily keepers anymore, for the right trade.  I came to this realization once it was intimated that Susac was available if necessary, as he showed off some nice improvement in 2013, and in AA, yet was still available.

They won't give any of them away, but would do it for the right pieces for 2014.  I don't expect it to happen, but won't be surprised if we should lose any of them for a good enough LF or 1B.  Personally, I would prefer to keep them, particularly Brown and Panik, as I think they have some useful future in the majors for the Giants.