Your 2013 Giants: Pitching and Fielding, Intertwined

I was thinking about the Giants, and how the pitching is having a down year when I realized that defense is also part of the equation.  Could that be part of the problem?

ogc thoughts

I thought maybe it could be.  Posey hasn't been the same since his injury, he's been basically average, maybe below (though catching stats is not on par with other positions yet).  The infield overall is probably down, as good as Crawford and Belt are defensively (and I would note that Crawford's great defense that we see with our eyes does not appear to be registering with the major new sabermetric defensive metrics), Scutaro is the not the best defensive secondbaseman and Sandoval's weight issues brings us defense down, though he was really great not that long ago.  The outfield is probably down as well, I don't know Pence's abilities, but compared to Schierholtz, he has to be worse, and Pagan is not even the best fielding CF on the Giants team, probably not even the fourth best in the Giants system (Blanco, Torres, Peguero, and Perez probably rates higher).

BABIP BAD

Looking at pitching and fielding metrics to 2009, 2013 is an outlier year for BABIP vs. League, with the Giants ABOVE average at .299 (League .295), which is 4 percentage points higher, whereas in the prior four seasons, we had been BETTER than average anywhere from 6 to 15 percentage points below average.  Offenders include Kickham, Kontos, Lincecum (but his BABIP has always run high), Lopez, Machi, and three major contributors are Mijares (.362 BABIP), Vogelsong (.352) and Zito (.352).

Zito in particular sticks out because for most of his career, he had performed well in BABIP, notching many years substantially lower than average BABIP, he was one of the players to defy DIPS and be able to control how batters hit his balls.  But in recent years, that has not been as true for him, though still generally at below average rates, this is his first so far over.  To illustrate, his high for a season is currently .299 BABIP, set in 2008, second is .295, but all the rest are below .290.

Vogie is right at the mean for his career, .298 up to this season, .302 including this season, but in the two years he was with the Giants before, he averaged .286 BABIP, which is pretty good.  So his .352 also sticks out, though it could just be regression to the mean as evidenced by him bouncing from .298 before the season to .302 now, around the mean of .300 that sabers have been using.

Fielding is All Over the Field

Fielding varies with the metrics, unfortunately.  By Rtot, the Giants are having one of their best defensive seasons, averaging 6 Rtot on a seasonal basis (6 also in 2010, else just slightly above average).  However, RF/g is slightly low at 2.69, than last few years, though 2010 was the low at 2.68.  Then on the other hand, UZR is relatively high at 5.9 UZR/150, (vs. 0.9 and 1.8 in last two years, respectively, and 7.0 and 9.4 in the prior two seasons), But back to the other other hand, DRS has seen a huge drop in the last few years, from 14 in 2009 and 26 in 2010, to 3 in 2011, -7 in 2012, and 1 in 2013 so far (prorated is around 2 for season).

Those are the major defensive metrics out there publicly, but there are other defensive metrics available.  RZR is also low, .831 in 2013, though better than the low in 2012 of .826 (previously, .847, .844, and .847, respectively in years before).  Something named RPP is low (via Fangraph, could not find an explanation for that metric on their website), 0.1 for 2013 vs. 1.4 in 2012 and 2.6 in 2011 (both were negative in 2009 and 2010).  Lastly, BP's DER has the Giants declining year by year since 2009:  .720, .718, .717, .711, .706 (14th).  Not only that, they were among the top defensive teams (top five-ish) from 2009 to 2011, but lately have been middling (13, 14th) the past two seasons. BP notes .710 is average, .722 is great (2011 examples). 

So there was nothing conclusive about fielding defense.  By some metrics, this is one of their best defensive years, by others, one of their worse.  However, there were a lot of metrics where the Giants are at a low point defensively.

Could Zito and Vogie be in Decline?

The high BABIP for Zito and Vogie are major culprits in the rise in BABIP for the team.  While most pitchers regress to a mean, a sabermetrician (Mike Fast) now working for a team (Astros I believe), in an interview, noted that while that mean holds in the majors, pitching prospects coming up the minors do not necessarily have that skill, that this IS a skill for a pitcher, to be able to keep it around the MLB mean, but that pitchers in the minors do not necessarily have that skill and that such pitchers usually slide out of the majors quickly when they even make it that far.  So, to me, that means MLB pitchers in decline could exhibit BABIP high above the mean.

For Vogie, it appears to just be part of the ups and downs in BABIP for any pitcher.  His poor season so far just bounces him from just below to just above.  So this could just be very bad luck for him that he could recover from once he returns.

For Zito, however, it could mean that his skill set is declining drastically this season, as this is such an outlier with the rest of his long career.  And it is a huge outlier, he's never had a season above .300 BABIP, even his injury year in 2011 didn't result in an above stat.  And this is his highest OPS in a season as well, with a BA of .313, whereas his high before was .270 in 2008, and .842 OPS vs. high of .816 in 2011, but that was short season, his high in a full season is .772 (in 2008 too).  That is a huge variance from HIS HIGH for his CAREER.  As much as fans have been clamoring for Lincecum to be replaced in the rotation, Zito is more probably the first one to go, if any starter is to go, based on his very poor BABIP and OPS performance, they are such high outliers that one has to wonder.

Now, it could just be random luck finally catching up with Zito, that is certainly possible.  That would be up to the Giants to decide that one, they should have standards for pitching that they are comparing Zito and other pitchers against.  Zito is getting hit hard by hitters this season, his LD% is way up at 29% (20% career average and league average, and he was only over in his first season and the next), his Infield Flies are way down at 10% (career 16%, league average 12%, low of 13% previously in his career), though oddly enough, his XBH% is right in line with recent years (though high for his career, it has been rising over the years) and his X/H% is actually low for recent years, meaning that he's been giving up a lot of singles that previously had been infield pop flies.   That could suggest random luck on his LD% that is resulting in  a lot more singles.

Vogie, though, too, is having issues with high LD% (26%) and lower infield flies (11%).  Also, his HR/FB% more than doubled compared to the two prior seasons, and is over the 10% (currently at 13.3%) that pitchers are suppose to regress to the mean to, according to some studies (but league average is only 7.7%).  So he's having some bad luck that could be random or it could be the start of his decline.  We won't know until he comes back and we see what happens. 

Zito Closest to Chopping Block Right Now

So it looks like defense could be part of the problem resulting in Vogelsong and Zito having elevated BABIP, given that by some measures, the Giants are the worse they have been since their winning started in 2009.  However, Zito and Vogie are having severe issues with LD% that could be random, but also could be the start of the end for them.  Their infield flies are also down as well, again perhaps random, but again, worse for Zito's career so could it be a sign of decline?  These are some things to watch going forward, to see if they can get out of that tailspin they have been on, though obviously first Vogelsong has to get healthy and fit enough to pitch for us this season (he's apparently ahead of schedule but still no timing I'm aware of).

Despite talk of the Giants looking to acquire a starting pitcher to replace Lincecum, and particularly now that he threw his no-hitter, the guy who stands closest to the chopping block among the starting pitchers is Zito, based on the above.  The Giants must judge whether it is just random (really) bad luck or if Zito is headed into the accelerated declining years of his career.   And unlike Lincecum, who would have been moved to relief, Zito would probably just be DFAed, and after nobody claims him, be released and become a free agent.