Your 2012 Giants NLDS Starting Pitching

Bochy has already announced that all five starters will be on the playoff roster.  I thought I would write about my thoughts on the starting pitchers.

Fourth Starter?

I think Zito would have been too disgruntled in 2013 if he didn't make the 2012 playoff roster, so I see Bochy taking that into consideration when adding him, plus, in any case, he had done very well for us early this season when Lincecum was struggling, coming up with great starts like his complete game win against the Rockies when the season started poorly and other good ones, plus his recent stretch of good pitching which allowed the Giants boosted offense to win all his starts for the past two months.  Of course, getting on the roster does not mean he is going to start.

Vogelsong was also a question mark because he had that bad stretch of pitching where he looked like he would never get out of it, but that last DOM (5 PQS) start, I think sealed his roster spot.  However, given how well he has pitched over the past two seasons for us, I would have been very surprised if he weren't on the roster, particularly after running down the list of relievers that Bochy has relied on strongly (Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Affeldt, Mijares, Kontos, Mota).

Thus it came down to whether we want Hensley in the roster over any other reliever or the remaining starters after Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner.  I know I would prefer Vogelsong over Hensley, and Zito has done more for the team than Hensley has, this season.  Plus, particularly with the Reds appearing to be our eventual dance partner, Zito has a great history of good starts in Cincy. 

I can see the plan being that Vogelsong will be the piggy-back follow-up pitcher to Zito in game 4 (assuming game 4 is not a clinching game for the Reds, in which case the #1 starter would get the short rest call to pitch), with Bochy having a really quick hook for Zito for the first sign of serious stinkage.  Bochy will not leave him in long enough to put the game out of reach.

Top Three

Now, who do we go with 1, 2, 3.  Before this season, it was pretty clear who is numero uno, ichiban:  Lincecum.  Now, not so much.  However, that is not really should be viewed here, what should be examined is each pitcher's record in AT&T and GAP in Cincy.

Given that, I have to go with Cain as our #1 starter.  In GAP, he has 5 starts with a 3.44 ERA and 2.0 K/BB there.  Plus, Cain has been steady Eddy among our pitchers for the past number of years, with minimal struggles.  He has earned Top Dog status for us this season.  Plus, Cain as #1 means that he either pitches game 4 or 5, as needed.

Furthermore, both Lincecum and Bumgarner have had only one start there, both disaster starts.  Meanwhile, Lincecum has not done well against the Reds at home (7.36 ERA in 2 starts but one good in 2009 and one bad in 2011) or on the road (7.50 ERA), but Bumgarner has a 3.86 ERA in 3 starts at home against the Reds.  On top of that, right-handed hitters has an advantage in hitting homers in Cincy (per Bill James Handbook), meaning that we should want Bumgarner to avoid pitching in Cincy and prefer Lincecum in Cincy.  That would make it Cain and Bumgarner in the first two games at home, then Lincecum.  I can also see the Giants going to Cain for the clinch in game 4 if there is enough rest days between starts, given Bochy's penchant this season to go for the jugular and not allow the other team to come back.  Clinching early would give additional days of rest for Lincecum and Bumgarner for the NLCS, as well as Cain.

Lincecum's Future as a Giant

{I wrote this in a comment on DrB's, thought it would fit in here as well.  I have modified it, as I am wont to do}

I used to think that Timmy was supremely confident before.  He has been about the money too, confidently holding out for $1M when the Indians offered him $400K-ish, holding out for that extra $200K when negotiating the draft bonus (slot was $200K less), asking for that large salary in his first arbitration.

But his comments this season (plus his issues with not handling adrenaline well in first games) I interpret to mean that he has hit his mental threshold where his mental affects his physical and he can't control it right now.  He has made progress in the second half, but he's not been elite, as he had been previously.

I think his tough first half had more to do with having signed the largest per season contract for a RHP and his trying to pitch to that lofty achievement.  I think it is telling that he has openly talked about the pressures of a huge contract, preferring shorter deals.  I think that Shankbone is right that the Giants will offer him that 2-year dealio, but I think they will do it even if he don't have a great playoff performance.  And I think he will sign it.

Ultimately, I think he will prefer comfort level over money.  Once you got $10-20M in the bank account, plus the status of the highest paid RHP in history, that lends a financial base that frees some from that push to get more, more, more.  Based on his comments, I don't think he will push to get every dollar that he can get now, I think he will seek comfort.  Everyone has that point where you have enough money and the impetus for more money becomes lesser in intensity.

His comments show that he is self-aware enough to realize that the big contract could be a big anchor (and perhaps it is Zito, either by example or perhaps they have even discussed it, who got him to realize that).  Then he should be aware enough that if he stayed in SF, the fans will not put an additional level of burden on him to be the savior, unlike if he signed with another team for 10 years, $250M.  And he's aware enough that if he performs poorly, the fans will turn on him (much as so many Giants fans have turned on him this season), even in SF, and thus if he went anywhere else, it would be that much worse.  On top of that, I think he should be aware that while SF fans have smiled and had fun with his MJ drug bust, I am not sure other cities will be so tolerant.  So I think 2 years, probably in the $25M per season range, a nice bumpup from before, and I think that is the highest salary, period, would keep him around.

I used to think that he wanted that big honking mega-contract.  Now I think free agency is the last thing on his mind.  I think he's self-aware enough of the pressures and the downsides of that contract.  I think he's aware of the downside from the fan perspective, where if he's already been dropped by Giants fans after so many great seasons for them, record breaking seasons, really, then what would happen if he moved on as a free agent and not perform well, much like Zito.  At least here, there will always be a large base group of fans that will always appreciate all that he has done for us in the past and still root for him in the future.  He won't have that strong base anywhere else.  A two year extension would afford him less pressure yet giving him further monetary rewards.