Your 2012 Giants: Hunter Pence Trade

Sorry I'm late on this, but I was offsite at work and then travelling back, stuck in the airport, when all this happened, not getting back home until 2AM.  Here are reports from Baggs, Hank, Pavlovic, and Haft.  Also, there is an interesting backstory on the Giants pursuit of Pence by CSN Bay Area's Rael Enteen and one by Schulman.

The deal is the Giants get Hunter Pence and cash (but not that much, I recall one report noting $2M total for both Scutaro and Pence, so maybe a $1M?) for Nate Schierholtz, Tommy Joseph, and Seth Rosin.


Giants Thoughts

I like the trade, but disappointed we lose Joseph and Rosin.  But you have to give to get.  And we need Pence's bat right now and for the indefinite future of this season because hamstring strains like what Sandoval has can linger for a long time, so we don't have a great idea when exactly Pablo will return from the DL.  Plus, if we can keep both Melky and Hunter, we could have a great lineup for the foreseeable future.

I am not absolutely sure the deal would have been done had Pablo not been injured, which I think contributed to the 5 game losing streak, but given the background information, clearly Sabean likes Pence and been trying to get him for a while now so Sabean was already talking Pence even before Sandoval's injury.  Though maybe the injury got the sign-off on the deal from upper management AKA Larry Baer, but Sabean's interest stretches back to 2011, when the price got too high for him.

Best Wishes to Nate the Great Giant

I love Nate, he's a good guy and I wish him the best.  Nate is considered by some to be a tweener, AAAA type.  I disagree.  When Nate is on, he's better than Hunter Pence overall.  His problem has been three-fold:  1) he's either very hot or very cold, 2) he's prone to injuries, 3) he's prone to returning too fast from injuries, resulting in the very cold in the first bullet.  He has believed that if a team would stick with him and give him a chance to stick, that he will.  Looks like the Phillies might be doing that, now that they traded away both Victorino and Pence.

I honestly don't know whether he'll ever reach that potential.  I think at minimum they get a gold glove in RF, and if played regularly, he'll give the Phillies a solid .700-.800 OPS overall, but fear that it will be a mix of hot/cold play, which don't work for a contending MLB team.  They need steady performers.

But who knows, maybe regular play will make it finally click for him and he can be a Hunter Pence-type hitter.  He has certainly had the power makeup to be so, and the nice RF configuration there (130 for LH hitters in 2011; 109 for 2009-2011, where 100 is neutral) will help boost his power output.  And his .755 OPS right now is not far from Pence's current .784, so that power boost could help him.  He has an .864 OPS in that park, all from his power there, vs. .731 OPS career numbers.

I think the Giants have given him numerous chances to stick.  When he gets hot, Bochy would put him into the lineup regularly but eventually that cold streak would put him on the bench eventually.  I have gone through his game by game usage and that is the pattern I've seen.  I have to think the Phillies are giving him that starting position, and let's see if he can relax and let his abilities shine.

However, they also brought up Domonic Brown as well, who played RF for them in 2011, but played mostly LF/CF in AAA this season, and have openly committed to giving him a chance to win a starting job.  With Juan Pierre and John Mayberry there too, and Lance Nix and Jason Pridie seeing time in the OF too, I have to think that Nate should get most of the starts for now - probably Brown LF, Pierre CF, Schierholtz RF - but if he goes into one of his cold spells, he'll be sharing time with Mayberry and Nix.  Though Nix could be getting a lot of playing time too, as he's hitting well right now, so we will have to see how it shakes out for him.   At least he is reunited with his best friend, former Giants Kevin Frandsen, who was recently promoted, and starting at 3B now.

But Nate's not the big pickup in this trade for the Phillies, Tommy Joseph is.  Tommy is very young but already in AA and doing OK there, for his age.  His gift is power, power, and more power, combined with playing a premium position, catcher.  I assume he's now the projected next starting catcher after Ruiz, though if Ryan Howard turns Zito-esque, he could move to 1B (not sure about their 1B prospects).

He's probably not ever going to hit for much batting average but his power is so good that the draft prospect hounds thought he would be OK at 1B.  His defense was in question at draft time, but that appears to be related to it being a relatively new position for him, I think he might have started in his senior year in high school.  He had a breakout year in Advanced A San Jose last season, earning kudos for his defense, not just improvement, but winning his team's defensive player of the year award.  Great arm back there, throwing out a lot of base stealers.  Some coaches thought that he was behind only Posey in acumen and game-calling, per Baseball America's profile on him.  So he's a lot to give up.

Seth Rosin has been a good pitching prospect, striking out a lot of guys along the way.  He wasn't on the BA Top 30 list but I think that relates to how old he was in the league he was in.   Still, I think that he's capable of continuing to develop and work his way up to the majors.  He's been mostly a reliever but he has also started some games too.  He could be a mid-to-back starting pitcher but most probably will be a reliever, perhaps a set-up guy if he develops right.  The scuttlebutt is that he was thrown into the deal in order for the Phillies to put more money into the deal.  He's only in San Jose, so he wouldn't be contributing for a while anyway.

If You Want More, You Pay More

I don't like giving up Joseph, but the Giants have to give to get.  He was our #2 prospect on Baseball America's Top 30 list this season.  I think the emergence of Hector Sanchez plus the addition of Andrew Susac made Joseph a trading chip, due to the depth of catching talent the Giants have behind Posey, who is pretty good himself (and I see from one of the articles, that appears to be part of the reasoning that Sabean gave; I had wrote a lot of this to a Phillies fan friend earlier today).

I think the trade is fair.  A lot of Giants fans are very enamored with Pence, but a lot of that was driven by his home park numbers.  He's above average but not elite otherwise - .287/.336/.474/.810 OPS on the road, 187 ISO, but also below average defensively, not not really bad, at least until this season.  He's elite given his home offensive numbers, so I can see some Phillies fans upset by the deal and think that he was traded when his value was low, a salary dump, when really, the Phillies overpaid for him last season, but got more than expected with his hot ending to 2011.  The Giants would love to have a similar hot streak.

I just think his value was over inflated by most fans.  I was against trading for him last season, based on what the Phillies gave up, the Giants would have had to give up our top two prospects for him to the Astros, Wheeler and Brown.  I thought the Phillies overpaid, but he sure hit well last season for the Phillies, but not so much this season.  If you look at his performances, while his overall career is 118 OPS+, in four of his full-season play he ranged from 105 to 116, with his 109 this season smack near the middle, which is not elite to me, being around 110 OPS+.

I hate parting with Joseph but the Giants have a lot of catchers who look capable of starting in the majors still, with Susac and Sanchez, plus Posey.  I also don't like losing Rosin, as he has some potential as a reliever, plus could be the emergency starting pitcher as needed.  But you have to give to get, as noted.

The Giants Hunter

While .287/.336/.474/.810 OPS on the road is not elite, probably about a 110 OPS+ which at best to me is borderline, given that his overall hitting with home is 118 OPS+ (and remember, he generated a lot of those numbers during the end of the offensive era that started in 1993), the Giants do not need elite.  They need steady performers (the knock on Niekro, Lewis, Bowker, Ishikawa, Schierholtz) so that the lineup does not have much if any holes in it on any particular day, whether against LHP or RHP, whether home vs. road.

His down 2012 season so far is related to poor hitting vs. LHP, who he in his career has killed, and bad luck in BABIP appears to be the culprit, though his contact rate is down significantly:

2012
v.RHP:  .280/.344/.451/.795, 171 ISO, Contact Rate 78%, 0.44 BB/K, .317 BABIP
v.LHP:  .245/.311/.436/.747, 191 ISO, Contact Rate 80%, 0.42 BB/K, .268 BABIP

Career
v.RHP:  .280/.340/.472/.812, 182 ISO, Contact Rate 80%, 0.37 BB/K, .332 BABIP
v.LHP:  .291/.349/.509/.858, 218 ISO, Contact Rate 85%, 0.57 BB/K, .303 BABIP

Given the small samples sizing issue with LHP on a seasonal basis, and the similarities of his RHP hitting against his career (remember, inflated by earlier offensive era, now transitioning back to prior norms), that suggests that his LHP going forward should be closer to .291/.345/.488/.833 (adding above for career relative to RHP, on top of his 2012 RHP batting line to get representative LHP).  Plus, historically, his numbers have been much better in August/Sept.

In addition, small samples, but Hunter has an excellent .329/.366/.566/.932 batting line at AT&T, which is incredible by itself, but especially since he has mostly played against our creme de la creme pitching staff for most of his career.  With 82 PA, he only has 9 strikeouts in 76 AB (good 88% contact rate) and 5 HR (15 AB/HR, which works out to a 40+ HR seasonal rate).   So who knows, maybe the way he hits is suited for our ballpark, though it is hard to imagine since he is a right-handed hitter.

However, his defense has been below average the past three seasons.  And especially bad this season.  I heard one guy from a Phillies station on KNBR talking about how he's a hack fielder in RF, so be aware, be very aware.  But with Blanco/Pagan in CF, hopefully their speed will help reduce his poor defense in RF, by covering the RF gap for him.  Plus, maybe he can get a crash course on what to look for and where to position, which the Giants coaching staff has gotten kudos for.  Heck, they were able to get positive dWAR from both Burrell and Huff in 2010, the two self-named water buffaloes, so maybe they can help minimize his defensive liabilities there.

These bits of data represent the value the Giants see in him, from my viewpoint.  While I didn't want to overpay due to his home numbers, he's still a player I very much like on the Giants because of both his power and, more so, his stable offensive numbers despite the situation.  That fits in very well with Sandoval and Posey, and seemingly more and more, Cabrera too has been steady last season and this season.

Speaking of Cabrera, I also have to wonder if the acquisition of Pence reflects any initial negatives coming out of conversations with Melky's agents about what they are looking for in terms of contract.  Of course, nothing has been said, and Sabean (and Shulman) has noted that the Giants pursued Pence last year too.  But I have to bring that up as a possibility, since we control Hunter for next year, his last arbitration year (he is being paid $10.4M; which values him as a $17.3M per year free agent, assuming that is 60% of the free agent value, which hews with his arbitration award in prior season of $6.9M or $17.25M per year at 40%) and now we are not as dependent upon keeping Cabrera.

Money, Money, Money

In any case, Sabean said that he has gotten approval from upper management to budget in both Cabrera and Pence (saw in interview on CSN plus Baggs tweet).  I think that 4-5 years at $15M per season is probably the range that is fair for the players.  I will take his word that the Giants can fit in both, but from my prior back of envelope calculations, I was not sure we could both keep all our young core players - Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey - plus add in free agent level type accomplished hitters, let alone two of them.  So perhaps senior management approved expansion of the budget for 2013.

And if the Giants are willing to up their budget in order to fit in Pence for 2013, that would be a good sign that Neukom's influence on decision making has continued forward, and that decision making has not regressed back to pre-Neukom levels.  As I've been saying for about 5 years now, if the Giants ownership is willing to pony up the dough, the Giants could have a dynasty that lasts through the 2010 Decade and be the Team of the Deacade that I've been touting in my signature on MCC, and noting elsewhere on other Giants and baseball sites.  I had not been hopeful pre-Neukom or post-Neukom, but this has to be taken as a positive sign, at least initially.

And spending money on a move like this is infinitely better for the Giants than if they had, say, spent time and money on trying to squeeze another high school prospect into the draft as some have vehemently criticized them for.  I still say that in any business, you have to pick and choose your battles and where you want to get an edge on the competition.  Chasing every windmill or every sliver of potential advantage that is out there is not a very efficient or even effective way to run an organization, and ultimately will lead to a waste of resources at some level.  There is a point of diminishing returns for any and every business process, and I think that trying to improve how well a team drafts in rounds 11-40 is similar to trying to squeeze blood from any root vegetable of your choice (radish, potato, turnip).   That time and money is better spent in other areas, whether international free agents or trading for players you hope to sign long-term.

Yes, you need the prospects in order to trade for these players, but I would note that the players given up - Culberson, Joseph, and Rosin - were all drafted in the first four rounds of the draft and Culberson was a supplement first round pick and Joseph was a second round pick.  Nary a late round prospect, which is much like a flower blooming in the desert.  It is beautiful, but few and far in-between, not worth hunting down, where there are potentially more productive areas (like Asia and I've been hearing some good word about Europe as well) for such prospects.

Great Lineup Now and Maybe Future

All in all, we now have a great top of the lineup, 2-6, which would be a great top of the lineup in the future if we can sign them up.  Assuming Blanco keeps the CF job in 2013 (Pence's addition appears to have ended Pagan's chances of signing going forward), it could be Blanco, Cabrera, Pence, Posey, and Sandoval atop our lineup going forward, plus some mix of Theriot, Crawford, and Belt, allowing the Giants to tolerate both Crawford's and Belt's bats at the bottom of the lineup.  And Belt's bat is actually OK for a 7th hitter, overall, so perhaps he can bat 6th vs. RHP and 7th vs. LHP.

NL 2012
6th:  .256/.323/.413/.736
7th:  .250/.310/.406/.715
8th:  .240/.307/.364/.671

Belt:  .237/.340/.369/.710 overall
BCraw:  .246/.312/.339/.651 since May 8th, when he got a break to fix his batting stroke

However, for this season, given how poorly Belt has hit in July, I think that he will be sharing 1B with Brett Pill for now, and Blanco and Pagan will share CF, with who playing depending on matchups, prior history with the pitcher, and situation (home/road, who's hot, who's not).  I can also see, once Pablo returns, Scutaro getting starts to rest both Theriot and Crawford, particularly against LHP for Crawford, but also Theriot since he is older and probably need more rest to maintain his hitting through the season.  Scutaro might even see time at 3B, if the Giants dare play Pablo at 1B again (probably not, though they could rest Pablo and play Posey at 1B)

And with the Phillies releasing Mike Fontenot, I can see the Giants pursuing him, assuming he goes through waivers, to replace Arias, reuniting the Ragin' Cajun buddies, Theriot and Fontenot.  Fonty has played good defense for us, while providing a good bat off the bench for us as well.  His numbers for the Phillies is not that bad off the bench (.683 OPS, much like his time with the Giants) and he was actually good at getting on-base, with a .341 OBP, whereas Arias is a black hole offensively after his initial nice start.  If no team picks him up, I don't see why the Giants don't pick him up, heck, his salary is so low, they might even put in a waiver claim and pick up his contract, where he's owed at most $350K.

So the bench, once Hector Sanchez comes off the DL (which probably means Whitey is DFAed), which I believe he is due for tomorrow, and assuming Sandoval returns once his DL is over, might look like Hanchez, Pill, Scutaro, Fontenot, and Blanco/Pagan, depending on who is not starting that day.  If the Giants are serious about having Huff on the them and be like Renteria was for us in 2010, he's probably taking Pill's spot once he is ready, as he can play the OF in an OK way if necessary, whereas Pill would not, and he's never been that bad against LHP, just not good, so he could steal some starts at 1B, if Belt is cold again.  Gives a nice mix of RH, LH, SH, power vs. speed.