Panda Belt Tim Thoughts

Had three thoughts I wanted to cover on Pablo, Belt, and Lincecum.  Giants win, back to three games back.

Awaiting Panda Power 

Pablo, as expected, has not shown much power since he returned from his hamate bone surgery, which most hitters go through when that bone breaks.  Last year, he went 11 games, hitting .222/.234/.222/.456, with .270 BABIP, no extra-base hits, 9 K's (80% contact rate) and only 1 BB (0.1 BB/K ratio), before he went on fire, with four straight games with doubles, then a game with homer, a total of 9 straight games with extra-base hits.

Up to today, Pablo had played 11 games, hitting .275/.341/.300/.651, with .355 BABIP, 1 extra-base hit (double), 9 K's (78% contact rate) and but 4 BB's (0.4 BB/K).  He did not catch on fire tonight, going 1 for 3 with a single, plus a walk.

Now, part of the reason he might not have turned it on yet is because he's back much faster than last season.  In 2011, he was out from April 30 to June 13th.  This season, he was out from May 3rd to June 8th, coming back 8 days earlier than last season.  So if the power kicks in like last year on a time-wise angel, it would be 11 games after June 16th, which would be the June 28th game.

Obviously, the power outage is already longer than last year's, now at 12 games, though obviously there are improvements, such as higher OPS, BABIP (around career norms), does have that one double, plus got a lot more walks, which makes him productive offensively with a .341 OBP (and higher now with the single and walk).

Belt Watch

Given his struggles with contact, I thought it would be interesting to observe his trends with contact over 10, 15, and 20 games.  His 10-game average stayed very low - 50-60% since May 20 - popped up for good on June 12th, the first HR of the season for him, and is now approaching the 85% contact rate that good hitters attain, he's been bouncing around in the 80-84% range, and he didn't strike out tonight.

He was similarly bad with his 15-game average, breaking out again on June 12th with that average as well.  But he's just reaching 80% there

For his 20-game average, he didn't really break out until June 14th, the third of his three homer stretch.  He's still in the mid-to-high 70's range still there as well.

Still, these are all very significant for him.  His contact rate has basically been in the 60's and low 70's range since he came up to the majors, for the most part.  And he was down there much of the season, with a 68% contact rate as of June 9th.  Since then he has hit .387/.486/.742/1.228 with only 5 K's in 31 AB (84% contact rate (plus no strikeouts in 2 AB's today, putting him at 85% contact rate) and, even better, 6 walks (now 7 with today's game), and great hitters are able to get BB>K.

Tim Hits Bottom?

Wow, that's pretty bad start to the game, 3 singles, 2 walks, 1 fielder's choice, no outs, 3 runs.  But he appeared to hit bottom with that, striking out 3 that inning, then only 2 walks, no hits, over the next 5 innings, with 5 strikeouts.  Hope that is the start of a good stretch for Timmy.