Bill James Handbook: 2011 Giants Defensive Leaders and Laggards

Just got the 2012 Bill James Handbook, which has a TON of 2011 statistics that you can't get anywhere else, or hardly anywhere else.

The first thing I wanted to get into was the Fielding Bible stats in the front of the book, using their Plus/Minus system which they then translate into Runs Saved.  And generally, 10 runs saved is the equivalent of one extra win.

OK, going with my train of thought, to show the power that the Giants have with their great pitching staff, I plugged in the NL average RA (4.16) in 2011 and that is actually true, when I add 10 runs to the RS, that is pretty close to 1 extra win, 1.014 wins to be exact.  I think plugged in the Giants RA (3.57) and that works out to 16% more effectiveness in winning, 1.181 wins.  Or looking at it another way, the Giants only has to score 8.457 more runs in order to win one game, where the average NL team has to score roughly 10 runs.  In contrast, Houston had the worse pitching staff in the NL, and each additional 10 runs they score only gets them 0.861 wins, meaning they have to score 11.6 runs in order to win one additional game.

And one thing that is neglected to be said when it is noted that it results in one extra win, and that has always bothered me, is that this is a zero-sum game, so adding one win from 81 to 82 in a season, is actually a 2 game bump in games above .500, pushing you from 81-81 to 82-80, as it also takes away a loss.  Thus, adding 5 wins via player acquisitions pushes a team from 81-81 to 86-76.

Now onto the data.

Aubrey Huff was among the leaders in 2011 1B defense with 4 runs saved, and not only that, but he didn't play as many games as the guys above him, had he played the full season there, he probably could have been among the top 5, as Mark Trumbo led with 7 runs saved, and Adrian Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy had 6 each.  He probably would have had 5 or 6 with a full season.  In any case that added around half a win to the Giants in 2011 (unfortunately his offense probably took away multiples of that).

FYI, projecting out Brandon Belt, he would be roughly equivalent to what Huff did, somewhere in the 4-6 runs saved range had he played a full season.  Hard to tell exactly because they only give whole numbers for runs saved and he only played about 20% of a full season, leading to huge projection skews.  But it gives a nice ballpark, they appear to be about equal.

Amazingly, Pill in just the very small amount of time played saved THREE runs!  No use projecting that small amount of playing time, but WOW, he almost matched Huff's seasons and Belt only had 1 runs saved himself.

Jeff Keppinger was HORRIBLE defensively at 2B.  -12 runs saved in 2011, -21 runs over the past three seasons, which was good for worse and second worse, respectively, in the majors.  And he wasn't even a full-time player in either situation!  And his offense isn't even plus!  The Giants should try to trade him for anything they can get or non-tender him when it comes time for arbitration decisions.  Also, this brings into question all their work on having custom defensive metrics, as Kepp was pretty bad, though I would note that no defensive system is perfect and worse, the various systems that do exist don't even agree on the direction, let alone the magnitude.

Freddy Sanchez actually wasn't that good himself, -5 runs saved, which projected over a full season would have put him among the worse in the majors as well.  Burriss saved 3 runs in his small amount of playing time, 2B was the only position where he saved any runs, though he only costed runs at 3B, he was average everywhere else.

Echoing the gold glove talk that he got, Pablo Sandoval saved 22 runs in 2011 via his defense at 3B, leading the majors by a good margin (second was Adrian Beltre with 17, Placido Polanco had 16, Evan Longoria had 12, to show how much better he was).  Showing further how much he has advanced, his three year total of 16 means that in 2009 and 2010, he was a cumulative -6 runs saved.  Had 2011 been his first season, his 22 would have ranked fifth in the 3-year rankings.  And remember, he missed a lot of time on the DL too.

And if he continued this going forward and, say, saved roughly 60 runs, he would have led the majors, as Adrian Beltre was the 3-year leader with 48, Evan Longoria had 42, and so did David Wright, and Chone Figgins was at 33.  Pablo's defense alone was worth almost 4 wins (3.7) by itself and his offense was stellar on top of that.  This is why I have been saying that Pablo as well as Lincecum and Cain, should be extended this off-season.  Just buy out his arb-years plus option his first free agent year.

I'm not going to bother with the older SS, we know how bad they were, but Brandon Crawford was as good as we all thought, with 6 runs saved, ranking him 10th in the majors despite playing about 40% of a starter.  Projecting over a full season, he would have saved about 15 runs, which is almost 2 extra wins for the Giants, just on defense alone, meaning that, in saber parlance, he is almost an average player (2 wins) by his defense alone, and all he has to do from a sabermetric viewpoint to be an average player is to be a replacement level player as a hitter (which unfortunately varies from one implementer from another, so hard to say what that is exactly, but it is usually hard defined into the WAR calculations as the point where a hitter contributes zero wins via his offense.  This is done because when a player is average that is still of value to a team, because average is still pretty good, or so the sabermetric thinking goes.)

I would also note that Mike Fontenot ended up at +3 runs saved in his time at SS, so he was pretty good there as well, despite not really playing SS much in recent seasons.  And Orlando Cabrera was at 0 for the season at SS, but Tejada was -5 runs saved.  However, I should note that while playing in place of Sandoval at 3B, he was +7 runs saved there, putting him at +1 run saved overall (he was -1 run saved at 2B)..

Among LF, nobody had full-time stats there, obviously.  Belt, however, was stellar there, with 3 runs saved.  Burrell was -1, as expected, and he hardly played much there.  Schierholtz was +1 there.  Huff was +1 there as well.  Christian was +1 as well.  Rowand and Ross were at 0.

No regular in CF either.  Andres Torres had 3 runs saved there.  Ross was -2 runs there and he did not play very many innings there, about 15-20% of a starter's time there, so he was really bad there in 2011.  Rowand was -1 run there, in about a third of a starter's time there.

FYI, Melky Cabrera was -3 runs saved there, and that was helped by a fluky +2 runs saved via catches of homerun balls pulled back into the playing field.  That would have made him -5, which would have been tied for 5th worse among major league CF.  That fits in with his three year total of -12 runs saved, which placed him tied for 4th worse in the majors with Matt Kemp.  Also, that would cost us a little more than half a win, so he will have to produce offensively to make up for that.

Shockingly, in RF, Nate Schierholtz had the 4th worse runs saved with -5, and in limited playing time there to boot.  He was not among the 3 year leaders at least, so perhaps 2011 was an aberration.  Still, Beltran was +2 runs saved, so he was better than Nate according to the Fielding Bible's system.

Belt in very limited time there saved one run in RF.  Ross was -3 runs, Torres +1 run, but Huff was an ugly -6 runs saved, negating all his good defensive work at 1B.

Thought I would end with catcher because as undeveloped defensive stats are relative to offensive stats, catcher stats are even more undeveloped.  Still interesting to note what one system thinks.  Obviously, none made the lists, as none has played enough.  Buster Posey was rated at +2 runs saved in his less than 2 months of playing.  Projecting that out, he would have been among the leaders in 2011, with 5-7 runs saved as he played roughly a third of what starting catchers played.  Whiteside was at -3 runs, which projects out to -5 to -7 runs.  Stewart was at a +9!!! runs saved in about half time playing.  Most of it was due to his arm, +6 but he also handled the staff well according to their methodology, adding +3 runs that way.  That's about one extra win based on his defense.  And in contrast, Posey only had 0 runs handling the staff.

Overall, the team was ranked 8th in the majors in defensive runs saved with 26.  Thus our defense gained us almost 3 wins.  Almost every position contributed runs saved except for 2B (where Franchez and Kepp , plus even Fontenot, stunk up the place, to the tune of -14 runs saved, with -9 between Franchez, Fontenot, and Tejada) and RF (where Schierholtz, Huff, and Ross stunk up the place, -14 runs between them, -15 overall including Beltran, Belt - who was +1 - and Torres was +1 too).  The Giants were very good at 3B (+27 runs) and 1B (+10), good at C (+7) and LF (+6), OK at SS (+3 despite Crawford), CF (+1 as Torres was only +3 in just over half season there), and P (+1). 

Giants Thoughts

Pretty interesting stuff.  Based on these defensive stats, we should get rid of Kepp, sign Sandoval long-term, start Crawford at SS, probably play Huff at 1B and Belt in LF, Melky is probably OK in CF as long as his hitting holds up, and wonder about Schierholtz in RF.  And I would keep Stewart as the backup catcher, his batting discipline is pretty good, I think he just needs more experience to get his offense to OK levels and his defense there is stellar no matter how you look at it.

Oh, and keep the core pitchers around for the long run, because with a great pitching staff helping to keep the RA environment for the team so low that our offense does not have to do as much as other teams to win a game.

Speaking of which, there has been a lot of hubbub about the Giants trying to sign Lincecum and Cain long-term, in that order, according to tweets that have been making the rounds.  Not sure why, Sabean said in his first post-season conference that signing the young pitching is the key job this off-season, plus Cain is signed for 2012 but Lincecum isn't and in fact is up for arbitration, so there is a deadline attached to that discussion and decision.  And last time it took until minutes before arbitration to get a deal done.

Plus, if I were Cain's agent, I would want to know how much the Giants are paying Lincecum, then set Cain's salary demands in relative to that.  So I would stall and tell Sabean to take care of Lincecum first, but reiterate that my client is very happy here and looking to stay long-term.

And that much is clear, despite writers talking about trading for Cain or trading away Cain, they obviously don't really know about Cain's history and situation here.  He is a Giants player, he bleeds orange and black, I'm certain of that.  He has noted before that he never followed a major league team before when he was a kid, so the Giants are his first love.  He has always talked positively and lovingly about being a Giants player.  He also moved here for his permanent home (contrast with Lincecum's pad in Seattle and Bumgarner's home spread at his hometown; nothing wrong with that, just noting the difference) and then married someone from the area, plus now had his first child here.  Not only that, but he accepted basically the same pre-arb deal that Lowry was given, even though his historic performance was much better than Lowry's and he could have asked for more; he was just happy to be here and he is not about the money and getting the last dime (unlike Lincecum, who could have signed the year before the Giants got him, with the Indians, but they offered him a rumored high 6-figure bonus and he wanted $1M, and with the Giants he asked for the same bonus as the year before even though player around him were signing for slot, which put him down $200K from what he eventually got, and don't forget that whole arbitration thing last time; or Bumgarner for that matter, he wasn't happy with the salary the Giants offered for 2011, and they eventually just renewed him, he's going to want blood when arbitration comes).

I think Lincecum will stay if he gets what he thinks is fair for what he has done.  Of course, he has done things that no other pitchers have done.   People keep on talking about him getting $25M in this round of arbitration, but this just reminds me of all the "experts" who thought he was going to get $20-30M last time and his side "only" asked for $13M, and then he ended up with $9M ultimately.  I think $20M is the right range for this year in arbitration, and the Giants probably would want to backload the deal, which Lincecum's agents would love because then that sets a high floor for the bidding when he becomes a free agent after the contract has ended.  I'm thinking $18M, $22M, $25M, $30M for a total of $95M over four years,  which I think is in line with what CC Sabathia got in his deal with the Yankees and relative to what Verlander got in his deal.  Plus maybe a $5M buyout or $30M contract for the 5th year.

I'm thinking Cain should be around what Verlander got, but he's not as good as Verlander, I think, so maybe a 5 year contact at $90M, which works out to $18M per year.  That's a nice bump over the $15M that Cain makes for the 2012 season.

And while they are at it, sign up Posey and Sandoval long term as well.

On the free agent front, the Giants are apparently kicking the tires of Grady Sizemore, among others.  Could be part of due dilligence, could be part of letting Beltran's camp know that the Giants are not sitting around waiting for him to decide, could be part of giving up on Beltran already.  Grady was -3 runs saved in limited CF play in 2011, so he appears to be just as bad as Melky, though if he is healthy, he should be better defensively.

If we can get Beltran for 3 years or less, I still think that I prefer that, even with his injury issues, just think of it like when we had Bonds for part-time duty, because we are pretty barren in the OF, particularly if Schierholtz is as bad defensively as these stats make him out to be.  I'm OK with Belt spending 2012 in AAA getting ready to take over 1B from Huff, either in 2012 (if Huff sucks again) or 2013 (when Huff's deal is over), and he can be a great backup in LF should Beltran get put on the DL again, so that there is not as huge a drop down in production when Beltran goes down, or even take over LF and push Beltran to RF, if Schierholtz falters or get injured himself again.

But at worse, I think the Giants will eventually be able to re-sign Cody Ross on the cheap if they are unable to get anyone else, and be the fallback option across the OF.   I am not sure that Torres returns in that scenario, though, as the bench look to be full, catcher, Pill, two middle infielders plus another OF.

They have also been pursuing middle infield utility players, in particular Willie Bloomquist (OK Shankbone, I give :^), who according to the Fielding Bible methodology was pretty bad any position he played in 2011, I mean really minus one win type badness.  So be glad we dodged the bullet there, assuming the rumor is true (hard to tell though if writers are just passing on what others write on, making the story "true", like the rumor that eBay started as a project to sell his girlfriend's Pez collection - not true - but which had a long life because each subsequent user of that bit of "fact" assumed the prior person checked the fact properly).

On the other hand, Clint Barmes was among the top defensive SS in the league, so he could probably handle 2B or SS pretty well, and his offense, as I noted before, isn't as bad as I had thought away from his Coors homepark advantage.  I just worry about how much it would cost to secure his services, given how much lousy utility guys are getting right now in deals.  He could get the 2 year, $12M dinner plate deal that Sabean has given out a lot of in recent years.  I think I would rather have Burriss be the right-handed complement at SS with Crawford in that case.

I saw someone suggest Theriot as another option but at SS he had a -12 runs saved there in over half a season playing there, which, as you can hopefully see by now, is not good at all.

And that brings up back full circle to defense, the original focus of this post.  I think the catching defense will improve with Posey back and, particularly, Whiteside gone (without him, C would also been at +10 without him and therefore assuming Posey plays that time, even higher).  1B at +10 runs, one would not think could get any better, but given how much Pill contributed in little time there, assuming he becomes Huff's semi-platoon buddy (getting many LHP starts), or even Belt there, the defense could be better, particularly if Huff is in shape.

2B, oy, not sure what to say there.  Franchez back does not necessarily improve things given how poorly he did in 2011 under the Fielding Bible's methodology.  Though I would note that he was -1 in 2010, so perhaps his off-season surgery affected him defensively more than he had thought in 2011.  And Keppinger was just bad again, just not as bad as 2011.

3B, wow, Sandoval was so good there, and Tejada, arguably just as good.  Still, I've noticed that these go up and down for some players, though most good players are consistently good.  But with Pablo there a full season, he played at around a roughly +30 runs saved rate, he would have to drop a little to still meet the +27 recorded for 2011, but given how much higher he was than other players, he's either the second coming of Brooks Robinson and continues to do well, or he'll come back to the back and "only" get somewhere in the 15-20 runs saved range.  Most probably a drop there, it looks like, and possibly by a significant amount.

SS however, only +3 runs saved for the 2011 season, looks to cover if not more than make up for any fall at 3B.  Crawford, as noted, played at a very high rate there, and he's still young and learning the league and the hitters, so I think any shortfall at 3B should be covered by him playing full-time.

For LF, at +6, there is probably a drop if Beltran is re-signed to play there, but probably an increase if Belt plays there.  If Huff plays there, he could bump it up (in 2010 he had a +3 there playing only 20% of the time of a regular LF).  Melky Cabrera, if he ends up there for whatever reason, probably makes it a negative for the season, in 2010, he was really bad whether in LF or CF, though it should be noted that he was out of shape while at Atlanta, so maybe now that he's in better shape, he'll handle LF better.

CF, at +1, probably will go down, as I don't expect Torres to regain his batting stroke, and thus it is either Melky there or another poor fielding CF, like Cody Ross, or maybe another free agent, like Grady Sizemore. 

However, with RF at -15 runs saved in 2011, hopefully it can get better as much as CF gets worse.  Schierholtz was a +4 in 2010 playing RF, showing how that metric can go up and down for the same player playing in the same park/team.  If Nate can play like in 2010 and for a full season, there could be a positive two wins swing in RF alone.

The bench is hard to say right now.  I expect Pill to be much better at 1B and Stewart will be a better backup at C than Whiteside.  But we have no idea who the MI utility guy(s) are nor the 4th OF (if Pill is around, he's the fifth OF).  I think with a couple of positives so far, it should be no worse than last season.

Overall, it looks like the Giants should be around the same shape defensively in 2012 as they were in 2011, which was very good, 8th in the league, with the potential to move into the mid-30's range, which could push them into the Top 5 overall.  And barring any debilitating injury that a player can "play" with, the defense should not fall that much in the worse case, keeping the team strongly in the positive and among the top teams still.