Your 2010 Giants are in the Playoffs: Braves, Game 4

What a series it has been.  The starting pitching has delivered but the relief corps has had its yips.  And the offense, besides Posey, has been pretty much shut down.  Fortunately, it has been able to produce just enough to win two and place the Giants in the position of needing to win one of the next two games to advance, while Atlanta needs both.  And the Giants have been facing such challenges since basically the All Star break, and mostly meeting that challenge.

Game 4:  Derek Lowe vs. Bumgarner

Lowe has not pitched that much worse with less than 4 days rest, but he has pitched a bit worse.  Though that is regular season and not playoffs, Jeff Fletcher tweeted that, "Derek Lowe, on 3 or less days of rest: regular season, 5 GS, 3-1, 4.40; Postseason, 4 GS, 1-1, 3.28."  In any case, it is not like he's been a shutdown type of pitcher:  will that be enough for the Giants?  It wasn't like he was that dominant either, he only lasted 5.1 IP, putting their bullpen in there early, which could have worn them down by yesterday's game.

And Bumgarner, of course, is pitching in his first post-season game in the majors, will he be able to amp down and pitch normally?  The MLB has a nice comparison and article on the two of them here.  Check out the nice table comparison they have on the left side, about half-way down.

Here is why I think Bumgarner will follow in his fellow rotation members' footsteps and keep the great streak we have so far going:  in September, where some young arms give out (looking at you San Diego), Bumgarner had 5 starts, pitched 32.0 IP, gave up 31 hits and only 4 walks, while striking out 32, for an insane 8.0 K/BB ratio (remember good pitchers have a ratio of 2.0 or better, and the best pitchers have 2.4 ratio or better).  His 1.13 ERA was second only to Jonathan Sanchez's 1.01 ERA in September.  His stamina should not have been in doubt by some, because he was raised on a farm, where physical hard work is year round.  And, in any case, the last time he pitched was almost two weeks ago, so he should have plenty of rest.

But as we have seen in this series so far, one mistake here or there and the game could be lost.  Should be another close game, but I would have to lean towards Bumgarner.  But Lowe is good, as he showed in his first start, so it should be another tough game.  Still, the Braves have been relatively lucky so far and lucky to be still in the series and not swept.

While some might say the same about the Giants, really, errors lost the second game for the Giants, else they should have won that game, and yesterday's game should have been remembered as Sanchez's dazzling one-hitter with 11 K's, he should have been took out after he labored to get the last two batters out in the 7th, stretching to a full count for both, and even then, Hinske was lucky to hit the ball in the right spot, almost anywhere else in the park and it would have been an out, it was so close to the foul pole that it hit the foul pole screen after landing and ricocheting.  Hopefully that does not screw much with Romo's psyche.  And game one, really, the Giants had a lot of opportunities while the Braves were totally shut down, it was just a matter of time that the Giants would score and win.

Where the Giants have been lucky is that the Braves are limping along without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, and now they lost Billy Wagner, their closer.  That would be like losing Huff and Sanchez, roughly, and Wilson.  But that's the beauty and the pain of the MLB's long gauntlet of a season, your players have to be able to survive that long stretch and make it into the playoffs semi-healthy enough to continue playing.

The Giants, as Latos pointed out, added a whole bunch of players near the end, but again, that's baseball, I don't know why Latos didn't know that, it's like he never followed a major league baseball season before or something.  And they added two starters at SS and CF, two key positions, while the Giants really only added a starter in RF (Guillen) during the stretch run, plus a couple of situational relievers.  And now in the playoffs, Guillen is out, Sandoval is benched, and Ross and Fontenot are starting.  But I expect Sandoval to regain his starting position should the Giants move on in the playoffs.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants should win the series, with Bumgarner then Lincecum pitching as necessary.  The Braves have not really mustered much of an offense all series long, while their pitching has not been as shutdown as the Giants have.  While the Giants no longer have the longest streak going of 3 or less runs given up, they basically have continued that after that game and into the playoffs.

Ideally, Bumgarner can win today so that Lincecum can start the series against the Phillies.  But even if it took the full five to finish the Braves, looking at the dates, the Giants could start Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Bumgarner, then go back to Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum if necessary, with extra rest because Bumgarner is in there.  They could also insert Zito in there if we happen to have a two game lead at any point or push Cain to game 4 if necessary, as that would be four days between starts too.  But ideally, we want Lincecum in that first spot so that he can pitch three times in the series if necessary.