2010 Giants: August PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of August 2010, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

I wholeheartedly recommend buying Baseball Forecaster and learning more about their methods of analyzing baseball. It has been greatly illuminating for me, and if you want to get a taste for it without paying full price, they used to sell their old editions of their annuals on their website for half price or less (plus shipping); but that was before he sold the company off, and I haven't checked recently.

Giants Starters' PQS for 2010 Season

Madison Bumgarner- (46% DOM, 31% DIS; 6:4/13): 4, 4, 3, 4, 1, 5, 5, 0, 1, 2, 4, 0, 3

Matt Cain- (63% DOM, 4% DIS; 17:1/27): 5, 3, 4, 3, 5, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 0, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (56% DOM, 22% DIS; 15:6/27): 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 3, 3, 0, 1, 5, 5, 4, 5, 0, 3, 5, 4, 0, 3, 5, 4, 0, 0, 3, 4

Joe Martinez- (0% DOM, 0% DIS; 0:0/1): 3

Jonathan Sanchez - (44% DOM, 22% DIS; 12:6/27): 0, 5, 5, 3, 0, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3, 0, 3, 2, 4, 0, 5, 4, 3, 5, 0, 4, 5, 0, 5

Todd Wellemeyer - (30% DOM, 40% DIS; 3:4/10): 2, 0, 0, 3, 0, 4, 2, 4, 5, 0, X

Barry Zito - (44% DOM, 30% DIS; 12:8/27): 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 4, 4, 0, 5, 1, 0, 5, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 0, 0

X = start Wellemeyer was injured in and had to leave the game. I don't include these in my analysis.

Giants season overall - 49% DOM, 22% DIS out of 76 games counted (65:29/132)
Giants Month of April - 55% DOM, 14% DIS out of 22 games counted (12:3/22)
Giants Month of May - 50% DOM, 21% DIS out of 28 games counted (14:6/28)
Giants Month of June - 42% DOM, 19% DIS out of 26 games counted (11:5/26)
Giants Month of July - 54% DOM, 18% DIS out of 28 games counted (15:5/28)
Giants Month of August - 46% DOM, 36% DIS out of 28 games counted (13:10/28)

August continued July's trend.  Cain and Sanchez were dominating again, while Lincecum and particularly Zito struggled a low.  Just as Bumgarner was a tipping point in July with his great performance then, he had just as bad a month in August, with 3 DIS starts (he had 4 DOM starts in July).  Cain led the staff with 5 DOM starts, Sanchez had 4 DOM in 6 starts, while Lincecum only had 2 DOM starts, and both Zito and Bumgarner only had 1 DOM start.

August was the worse month by far for DIS starts, with 10 in the month:  there was only 19 in the four months prior.  Both Bumgarner and Zito had 3 DIS starts, Lincecum and Sanchez each had 2 themselves (Dirty was Jeckyll and Hyde in August, either very good or very bad).

That staff overall had a DOM of 49% and a DIS of 22%, which is still pretty good both ways, but August was the worse month by far and the Giants have no hope of making the playoffs if that continues.  Starting pitching is the Giants competitive advantage, and if they are not producing, the team will suffer.  Luckily the offense has been improved enough (4.42 runs scored per game in August) to help offset that drop, but not enough. Generally, you want a DIS under 20%, and ideally under 10%, and a DOM over 50%, as a pitcher but our WHOLE staff overall was almost doing what very well starters alone can do in the majors, with a 49% DOM.

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher).

July 2010 Comments

That's two straight months of Lincecum not being dominating, so yesterday's start is very encouraging for the Giants playoff run.  The Giants chances begin and end with Lincecum being Lincecum.  If you look at his PQS, one can see that while he really did struggle for two games mid-month, he really wasn't that bad the last two starts, in fact, had a 4 DOM start to end August, then a 5 DOM start to begin September.  So maybe it was just a matter of bad luck and perception.

Bumgarner appears to be petering out, basically his starts' quality took a downturn with his first start in August, which is when he passed 130 IP.  That is about how many innings he pitched in 2009 and just under the 141.2 IP he pitched in 2008.  One would think that he being a farmer would have helped him last deeper into the season, but, if you'll recall, Sabean noted that Bumgarner had a busy off-season, what with getting married and all, and his conditioning probably is not as good as it could have been.  Hopefully that is a lesson he takes to heart this off-season, and the Giants teach him how to prepare his arm for a full MLB season.

Cain has been the steady arm in this rotation all season.   Had Lincecum been able to keep up to his prior performance, they would have been a deadly duo in our rotation.  In addition, Cain has raised the bar for himself, he is approaching elite-status, and having two arms like that to start the playoffs will be a major obstacle for whoever we face, assuming we get in.

Zito had been the biggest surprise in the rotation this season, but he has performed very poorly in two of the last three months, ruining his feel good story and threatening to set him back in popularity to prior lows.  Like Lincecum's start yesterday, Zito's start tomorrow is key to whether we will see the good Zito or the bad Zito.  Unfortunately, unlike Lincecum, Zito has been pretty bad for four straight starts, and just been sinking with each performance.  If he keeps on pitching like this, one, it will be very hard for the Giants to make the playofs, and two, if they do make it, he could be the 4th starter (I think Bumgarner will be put in bullpen should the Giants make the playoffs) because Cain and Sanchez have been the team's best starters since July started, and Lincecum is, well, Lincecum.

Sanchez has been hot and cold, up and down, but when you look at his overall performance, he has been good as a starter.  Not the best, but on any particular day, he can shut down the other team cold.  Or they could knock him around pretty good.  Kind of a two steps forward and one step back performance.  Still, that's good for a 4th starter, acceptable for a 3rd starter.  And he has come up big, with 7 DOM starts in his last 11 starts, that is near elite status if he could keep that up over a full season.  If he can keep that up, it will be very tough for any opponent facing Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez at the start of any playoff series.

The offense, after the glorious July, understandably was not as high octane in August.  The good news is that Kung Fu Panda is back, he has his mojo back.  On top of that, Posey has been delivering for the most part, so our heart of the lineup looks great for rest of this decade, assuming Neukom can deliver the money to keep them all.  Huff has a cold spell, but had a nice hot stretch before that, and the offense, as noted, averaged 4.42 runs in August, so it did a pretty good job overall.

Gauntlet Begins:  Road Trip to Hell and Back

Now the Giants go on a tough road trip:  3 in LA, 3 in AZ, 4 in SD.  With 'Dres free-falling - 7 straight losses and 9 out of 12 - the Giants despite a poor homestand (only 5-4, losing to AZ twice hurt) are only 3 games behind SD for the division lead and still only 1.5 games behind the Phillies.  If they can keep up in LA and AZ, taking 3 of 4 in SD would put the Giants only 1 game back.

But that's a tall order for the Giants.  SD now has a homestand equal to the Giants road trip, playing COL, LA, then SF.  Colorado should be tough, they are battling hard to stay relevant in the playoff chase, but now is 7 games back of NL West, 5.5 back of Wild Card.  Still, they are 7-3 in their last 10 games, playing three straight playoff contenders and either winning the series, or coming close against the Giants.  So the streak could continue.

However, LA has not been doing that well either.  It has lost (or tied) almost every series against a playoff contender since the All-Star break, winning just one (Colorado).  And that covers both home and road, so both SD and SF might have an easier time with LA, particularly now that Manny is not on the team.  Still, LA has risen up to the challenge of beating a division foe, 30-18 in NL West so far, so you never know.

And Arizona has found new life under interim manager Kurt Gibson, they are 24-31 under him and 8-4 in their last 12 games.  The new starters they pulled from the minors have done very well so far, taking care of the Giants in SF.  And both Enright and Hudson are scheduled to face the Giants in the last two games in Arizona.  So they will be tough

So the Giants and 'Dres could have two tough series before meeting, and thus should end up around the same, leaving the Giants 3 games back with 4 to play in SD.  If they hope to get into the playoffs, they will have to win that series, not only for where they are in the standings, but also because of what it means if the Giants end up facing San Diego in the playoffs, knowing that SD dominated them all season long. After going 2-9 against SD this season, they need to push the bully back hard with a series win in San Diego, to show that they can beat them in their home town.  A sweep would be nice but not likely, though at 7 straight losses, any continuance of that could crater their confidence and season to go with it.