2009 Giants: July PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of July 2009, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

I wholeheartedly recommend buying Baseball Forecaster and learning more about their methods of analyzing baseball. It has been greatly illuminating for me, and if you want to get a taste for it without paying full price, they used to sell their old editions of their annuals on their website for half price or less (plus shipping); but that was before he sold the company off, and I haven't checked recently.

Giants Starters' PQS for 2009 Season

Matt Cain - (70% DOM, 5% DIS; 14:1/20): 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, INJ, 5, 4, 4

Randy "The Big Unit" Johnson- (31% DOM, 31% DIS; 5:5/16): 3, 0, 5, 0, 5, 0, 2, 0, 3, 5, 3, 2, 4, 3, 5, 1, INJ

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (81% DOM, 6% DIS; 18:1/22): 0, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 5, 5

Ryan Sadowski - (17% DOM, 50% DIS; 1:3/6): 3, 4, 3, 0, 0, 0

Jonathan Sanchez - (29% DOM, 29% DIS; 5:5/17): 0, 3, 3, 0, 2, 2, 4, 4, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 5, 4, 3, 4

Barry Zito - (38% DOM, 19% DIS; 8:4/21): 0, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 0, 5, 2, 0, 4, 0, 4, 4, 3

Giants season overall - 50% DOM, 19% DIS out of 102 games counted (51:19/102)

Giants Month of April - 40% DOM, 25% DIS out of 20 games counted (8:5/20)

Giants Month of May - 52% DOM, 17% DIS out of 29 games counted (15:5/29)

Giants Month of June - 44% DOM, 15% DIS out of 27 games counted (12:4/27)

Giants Month of July - 62% DOM, 19% DIS out of 26 games counted (16:5/26)

Lincecum kept rolling into July and had another 5 DOM starts. Cain added 4 DOM himself. Both again, as they did that in June as well. This month, however, we had other pitchers chipping in good months of DOM starts. Both Zito and Sanchez contributed 3 each, and Sadowski 1 before he crashed and burned, unfortunately; his carriage turned into a pumpkin.

The staff altogether had a 50% DOM: remember, only the best pitchers can achieve a 50% DOM in a season, but our staff is so good that as a group it has 50%. And if Sanchez hadn't decided to take on some of Johan Santana's mechanics, who knows how good he could have been this season: it turns out he picked this up during the WBC and stubbornly kept doing it until he was put in the bullpen. Still, tough a road as it was, it led to his magical near-perfect no-hitter (only an error between him and immortality) where his father watched him pitch live for the first time, so I am sure he would not change a thing. Since he has returned to the rotation, he has a 75% DOM, no disaster starts, in 4 starts.

Zito has been on and off during July but has started to turn it on after the break, with 2 DOM starts out of 3 and no DIS. I am a bit disappointed with how this season has evolved for him because his velocity has been up and he has been striking out more batters than he has since he first joined the majors. Still, his ERA is only 4.47, which is great for any staff's #4 starter, which he was in the first half, and he's getting close to the low 4's one would expect out of the team's #2 starter, which is where he is right now, though, really, it should be Cain if he were not that Bochy wanted to both have righties around the lefty, plus somebody who succeeds off off-speed pitches sandwiched by the two power pitchers, Lincecum and Cain.

Johnson, unfortunately, looks to be out for the 6-8 weeks and probably won't return to the rotation this season, though he might return for September and contribute as a reliever. He has been worth the $8M we paid him, both for what he did for us on the mound and what he did for us in the clubhouse. I would be torn about whether to bring him back for 2010 or not, but if he's willing to take a contract that vests by appearances, I think I would be OK with that. But if Joe Martinez, who will become our #5 starter tomorrow, does well, I don't expect Johnson to come back to our team. Hopefully he'd be willing to retire as a Giant and accept a job with us, though I wouldn't expect that.

Overall, the rotation performed pretty much like it did in May, though it would have been a little worse if I had included the two starts marred by the pitcher being taken out due to injury. I probably should include Johnson's start in there, but I think it's cleaner to just remove any start where the starter is injured. As I noted, with a 50% DOM overall, the staff has been great, and should only get better as long as Lincecum and Cain keeps churning them out and Sanchez and Zito continue their recent good streak. And thus far in August, 3 DOM starts out of 4, and Cain was just one strikeout away from a 4th DOM start (or one less HR).

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher).

July 2009 Comments

With the two trades to get Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez, the Giants have upgraded the offense at 1B and 2B. Thus far, Garko has gotten most of the starts at 1B, but hopefully Bochy won't just let Ishikawa rot on the bench and allow him starts against RHP by playing Garko in LF occassionally. With Velez's hot hitting thus far, it is hard to sit him down to play Garko in LF and Ishikawa at 1B, so I'll just be happy with Velez doing so well.

As noted, the pitching overall was great in July, but the offense started to sag, as players who were hot before - Sandoval, Rowand, and Schierholtz in particular - started slowing down and vets who have been up and down - Molina and Winn in particular - went down again. The Giants had another OK month in the win/loss column, going 14-13 and averaging only 3.6 runs scored per game. They have been at or over .500 in every month so far, much over in June, and on a good start for a good month in August.

Still, the team is now half a game away from the Wild Card slot after ending last month leading: Colorado went on a rampage after Jim Tracy was named manager and zoomed to the top of the Wild Card standings before finally falling back to Earth, allowing us to stay close. We are one game ahead of the Cardinals and 3.5 games ahead of the Marlins, as most of the other teams have started to falter: Brewers and Braves are both 6 games back, Astros now 6.5, and Mets are 9 games back.

And we are "only" 7 games back of the D-gers for the NL West. Winning the division title looks more and more like a pipe dream right now. However, that is at least in their hands as they play LA another 9 games the rest of the season. If they can win, say, 7 of the 9, that would get them within 2 games of the Bums.

That is not too out of the question as their rotation is a little creaky. They are relying on Jason Schmidt as a starter because they had no one else better. He hasn't pitched regularly in years now. Both Kershaw and Billingsley had bumps in the road recently, Kershaw walking 6 in 4 IP and 71 in 124.1 IP for the season, and Billingsley, after a 6 walk start (5.2 IP) left his next game early because of a hamstring cramp. They have Kuroda, who is being figured out this season, plus missed a number of starts due to injury, and Wolf, who is having his best season since 2002 and amazingly has been health this season, after missing significant parts of the seasons from 2004 to 2007, before pitching a full season in 2008. Still, the amazing part is that he has pitched much better on the road than at home, which is pretty flukey, as most pitchers pitch better at home for the D-gers; he could have been even better.

I think it would be great to make the playoffs, because then Lincecum and Cain can get that off their To-Do list of first experiences, and hopefully not be so amped up the next time we make the playoffs, hopefully next season. I don't think that we will deep into the playoffs with our offense as it is, but I think we will be competitive and won't be shown up either.

Winning the first round is a strong possibility, as the Wild Card team would probably face the Phillies, and we just beat them 3 out of 4 at home. We would throw Lincecum and Cain at them in Philly, which should even things up for us, then we would have Zito and Sanchez at home, where they have pitched well, then Lincecum in Philly as necessary. I like those odds, should it come to pass.

It looks like the Giants are looking to the future with their trades, as they say that both players are in their plans for 2010, which makes sense. Sanchez is a good enough 2B, better than our alternatives of Burriss and Frandsen (though whether he is $6-8M better than Frandsen, I am not sure; I still don't like the cost, both monetarily and prospect in Alderson) and with Burriss' season-ending injury, he cost himself precious development and thus we needed a 2B for 2010, since Frandsen apparently has been labeled a utility guy (or been pushed there because of his big mouth). Sanchez is experienced batting in the #2 spot and can support the leadoff hitter in such a capacity. If he can hit .750-.800 OPS, then we got a good player manning that spot now; if he hits in the low 700 OPS or worse, we just paid dearly for a big albatross, and he will replace Armando Benitez in many people's hearts.

Garko, as a hitter, would be one of our most consistent hitters, LHP or RHP, and best power hitter period, in our lineup. Unfortunately, he is going to take away starts from either LF or 1B, and Ishikawa looks to be the equivalent of Garko at 1B in terms of offense if he can continue to hit like he has since May 10th, and 2010 looked to become a battle between Lewis and Bowker for LF, with Rowand in CF and Schierholtz in RF, but now with Garko in the mix, it could be Bowker pushing Schierholtz in RF and Garko in LF, with Lewis as the 4th OF (or traded).

For now, it has cost Ishikawa, as Velez has been too hot to play Garko in LF and Ishikawa at 1B. Giants management says that Ishikawa is still in their plans, so I'll take their word for it. He has hit .306/.358/.475/.833 with 7 HR in 160 AB since May 10th, and .333/.455/.333/.788 in limited play since July 27th, though he has been a defensive replacement in almost every game.

The Giants will have a tough road ahead towards winning the wild card because they have not played well on the road. Hopefully the additions will put them over the top offensively and get them winning there as well as at home, where they have been masterful. With the starting rotation looking to roll, we should be in good shape for a great August and we are off to a good start.

And August can be good. There are 11 more road games and 11 more home games. At home, the Giants have ruled, plus they get 6 games against the Reds and D'Backs, two bad teams. They will also get 6 games against the D'gers and D-Rox. The good news is that we should be catching the D'gers while they are cold and struggling: they are 4-6 in their last 10 games, 5-7 in their last 12, losing the series against Florida and St. Louis, before winning against the Braves and splitting so far with the Brewers. Against the D-Rox, they have been good on the road, just like the D'gers, so it'll be a battle in both series.

On the road, they play 11 straight games against the Mets, Reds, and D-Rox. The Mets and Reds have been struggling, plus haven't been that good at home. The Reds in particular, 1-9 in their last 10 games; why did they trade away young players for Scott Rolen? (According to reports, he requested this trade for personal reasons, so I assume he's going to sign a nice deal with the Reds long-term) Colorado, however, is always a tough team for the Giants to play on the road, and with 4 games, it could be a bloodbath there for us. Hopefully the Giants can win most of the games against the Mets and Reds, as that would make up for any shortcomings in Colorado. And the Giants will need to take care of business when they play Colorado 3 games at home at the end of the month.