This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of April 2009, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.
I wholeheartedly recommend buying Baseball Forecaster and learning more about their methods of analyzing baseball. It has been greatly illuminating for me, and if you want to get a taste for it without paying full price, they used to sell their old editions of their annuals on their website for half price or less (plus shipping); but that was before he sold the company off, and I haven't checked recently.
Giants Starters' PQS for 2009 Season
Matt Cain - (75% DOM, 0% DIS; 3:0/4): 5, 2, 4, 4
Randy "The Big Unit" Johnson- (25% DOM, 50% DIS; 1:2/4): 3, 0, 5, 0
Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (60% DOM, 20% DIS; 3:1/5): 0, 2, 5, 5, 5
Jonathan Sanchez - (0% DOM, 33% DIS; 0:1/3): 0, 3, 3
Barry Zito - ( 25% DOM, 25% DIS; 1:1/4): 0, 3, 5, 3
Giants season overall - 40% DOM, 25% DIS out of 20 games counted (8:5/20)
Giants Month of April - 40% DOM, 25% DIS out of 20 games counted (8:5/20)
Cain and Lincecum tied for the most DOM starts in April, with 3 each. Both by themselves had more than the rest of the rotation: only 2 from Johnson, Sanchez, and Zito, and it was Johnson and Zito who delivered those, as Sanchez did not get it all together in one game yet. And they had double the DIS starts than DOM starts in April.
And April did not start out well, with 3 disaster starts in the first time through the rotation, plus another one in the second time through, with no DOM starts at all. After 10 starts, they only had 1 DOM and 4 DIS starts. Then it just kicked in, with Lincecum's first start (though Sanchez triggered it, his start was not a DOM start, only a 3) that was a DOM, and the Giants ended April with 10 starts and 7 DOM starts (with Lincecum reeling off 3 DOM starts) vs. 1 DIS start.
Speaking of that one DIS start of Johnson, I would be inclined to forgive him that one because he was facing the D-backs for the first time in his career, the team who pushed him aside this past off-season when he wanted to come back and pitch for them. And with him following up with a DOM start to start May, I think that would be the right thing to do, but instead will keep the official stats as above and note that without that start, he right now would have 4 starts, 2 DOM, 1 DIS, which is pretty good.
Zito appears to be well on his way back, continuing the good results that began mid-last season when his velocity somehow returned to the high 80's he needs to be effective as a pitcher. However he has done it - finally letting go of the contract amount, getting advice from his former pitching coach who was fired earlier mid-season, finally not thinking with every pitch, whatever - he has been able to up his velocity back up to the 88 MPH range where he was previously when younger (he's actually been around 88-89 MPH, which is even better as it constrast well with his rainbow curveball) and where he appears to need to be in order to be successful with his stuff.
Strikeouts are very important to DOM starts. Strikeouts are a key component to two DOM points - K >= IP minus 2 and K >= twice BB - making it a critical element of a dominating game, PQS-wise. It also makes it harder overall for hits (less AB's to get hits in) and thus is affecting whether the pitcher can keep his hits total equal to or less than his IP. The last two points are not related at all to strikeouts, IP >= 6.0 and HR <= 1.
Zito just had another DOM start, to start May, and is now at 40% DOM, 20% DIS, which is a good place to be. He has compiled DOM points related to strikeouts in 4 of his 5 starts, 2 DOM points in 2 of his starts.
The caveat I would add here, however, is that when he is on, he would have games where he regularly get more strikeouts than IP, and he has not done that yet this season. So, while I'm very encouraged by his work so far, I would keep an eye on him still before saying he's changed.
I end by saying that I'm a little worried by Sanchez so far. Despite his nice ERA, his PQS have been average at best, and that will bite him in the end eventually if it continues. However, he's still striking out a lot of batters and he just needs to get his walks down and he'll be fine. His last two starts, while not great, were not that far from earning him his first DOM start. He was off by just one strikeout in his Arizona start, and one strikeout or one IP away in his LA start. So I expect better things out of him today against Chicago.
What's Good and What's Not
A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is still good, and that's why he earned a spot in the starting position for the 2008 season.
If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.
April 2009 Comments
Overall, our rotation was good and it should get better. It started off poorly but ended with a great run. As I've been saying since we got Johnson, we have a rotation that is capable of producing a .500 or better team even with a poor (though hopefully better) offensive team. And we are already at .500 even though Johnson, Sanchez, and Zito hasn't contributed much to the DOM starts yet and all of them have high DIS%. The best keep their DIS under 10%, the better ones keep it under 20%; above that is plain horrible for a good pitcher.
Last season, the #5 starter spot was horrible, but it looks to be good with Sanchez in that spot for us (not by performance but by order). That's what gets me excited about the Giants future, most teams have a lousy #5 starter and a lot have a lousy #4 starter as well, but the Giants could potentially fill the rotation with pitchers capable of #1 and #2 type performances, all with ERA's under 4.00, up and down the rotation.
Teams will look on their schedule and, while most would sigh a sigh of relief if they bypass Lincecum, they still have to face 2 or 3 of Johnson, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez. Much like a power-packed lineup that gives no relief to opposing pitchers, we have a pitching rotation that gives no relief to the oppose lineups, they will have tough games almost every game, particularly since Lincecum, Cain, Johnson typically have a high percentage of DOM games:
- Lincecum: 67% in 2007, 79% in 2008; he has been 74%+ since second half of 2007
- Johnson: 58% in 2006, 60% in 2007, 53% in 2008; been 57%+ in 4 of 5 half seasons, last three seasons (injured second half of 2007)
- Cain: 52% in 2006, 56% in 2007 and 2008; been 50%+ since second half of 2006, reaching 60%+ in 3 of those 5 half-seasons
- Zito: he has been under 40% for the most part since second half of 2006, except for 60% for us second half 2007. But he had 40% in 2003, 47% in 2004, 66% in 2005, and 41% in 2006, showing that when he is effective and on his game, he can be a very good pitcher for us, which would be particularly deadly for us in the back of the rotation
- Sanchez: 45% overall in 2008, but 53% in first half of 2008
As I noted in another post, when you have a whole staff of pitchers capable of dealing a DOM (PQS of 4 or 5) start a larger percentage of the time, the other team will struggle to consistently beat you, as each game will be close and tough. As I've noted in my PQS reporting, a pitcher with DOM% of 40-49% is a good pitcher (means 40-49% of his starts are DOM starts), above 50% is great, above 70% is elite.
As anyone can see, whereas most teams have maybe 1-2 great starters on their rotation, we have 3 great starters with Lincecum, Johnson, and Cain, with Lincecum and Johnson being particularly dominating a large percentage of the time. Zito, when he is on, could be a team's #2 starter with his low 4's, high 3's ERA when he is going good. That is great when he's your #4 starter.
To top it off, Sanchez has shown that he's capable of being a great starter, based on his first half of 2008, and it appears that only stamina is holding him back from joining Lincecum and Cain as a great starter, and he's our #5 starter (by order). He has been close the past two games, though he will face a tough Chicago Cubs offense today. But how good is that when our #5 starter (by order) is capable of, for extended stretches, pitching as well as any other team's #1 and #2 starters?
All of that will add up to a lot of wins for us against the bottom half of most team's rotations, and we will win our fair share of top rotation battles with Lincecum and Johnson leading the way for us. As well, Cain will win a fair number of games too.
Though, obviously, he won't win that many games pitching like he did the other day, his first DIS start. But both Johnson and Zito had DOM starts to start May off, so that is good, both for them as well as the starting rotation. As I noted in a prior post, this road trip will be a key indicator for how well the rotation really is in shutting down the opposition, because the Giants lost a lot of games against teams outside of their division last season. If they can continue doing well while on the road (a hard thing whenever Colorado is on your itinerary), that would be a huge confidence booster for the young team and they can probably build on that in their next homestand.
And they are on a streak. Winner of all 5 series at home so far, and their last 5 series. At 12-11, they have the 7th best record in the NL, and just one win away from a basic tie for 4th best record. And Dempster has been very inconsistent thus far this season, so the Giants could beat him today for that win.
Go Giants!
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