- Rich Aurilia: I'll start off easy with what Sabean already said at his first post-season soiree, namely that the Giants are interested in Aurilia but they probably won't sign him later than sooner, depending on how things work out. Clearly, the Giants need a backup 1B/3B, but paying for Aurilia will be paying for a part-time starter, which we might not need with Pablo Sandoval and possible acquiring a middle-lineup 1B/3B. But what are the odds of that happening when we aren't trading Cain or Lincecum?
So I think what happens is that the Giants will be unsettled at 1B/3B until the end of spring training. Sandoval will get one of the positions to start at (plus work as C). Frandsen could end up at 3B if he and Velez hits well and Velez gets 2B (lesser of all evils), leaving Sandoval at 1B. Then again, if Travis Ishikawa or John Bowker (or even Dan Ortmeier) in combo with Josh Phelps have a great spring, they would claim 1B as a platoon, pushing Sandoval to 3B. But if most/all of them fail to win a spot, the Giants would want Aurilia as backup starter.
Obviously, this can go a lot of ways. But I think the Giants hope one of the young players take a position, meaning they want to sign Aurilia cheaply, as utility player, not part-time starter (which means more bucks). Signing later would ensure that but risk him leaving to another team for a clear position/opportunity. However, something in my gut says that he will wait thing out - most probably because there is not much interest - and he signs with us for about $2M for one year. - Pat Burrell: I would love to have Pat the Bat on the Giants, plus he's a local boy, but he's going to command big bucks and as a LF, he makes a good DH. He is so poor a defender that the Phillies regularly replaced him in LF or pinch-ran for him late in the game. That makes sense if he were 40+ but he is not, he's still relatively young. He was a firstbaseman before so that could also be a position but again, his defense couldn't be that good after so many years away. Pass on him for the contract he's probably going to get, but if it was just for the player, I would do it. And, who knows, maybe he'll give us a good enough home discount to give it a shot.
- Mark Teixiera: $$$!!! Boras!!! No Thanks!
- Orlando Hudson: I like him as a player but I would rather see how Frandsen and Velez does at 2B, plus Noonan is coming up in a 3-4 years, and as well, Conor Gillaspie might end up there as well. We have a lot of options and Hudson would prevent us from seeing how they do, plus push them to other positions, and he doesn't solve our biggest need, a middle of lineup hitter. Pass.
- Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria: Like at 2B, I would rather let Burriss get some time here to see if he lasts defensively at SS; I think his ability to not strike out much despite his inexperience suggests a lot of growth potential as a hitter, particularly if Carney Lansford is able to teach Emmanuel how to hit for more power. If he is not defensive SS material, then he'll be in the mix for 2B in 2010 with whoever won 2B in 2009, and the Giants could go shopping for a SS next off-season. The Giants are rumored to be interested in Furcal, but I would rather not, he's injury prone and probably want a longer contract than the 2 year plus option that I would be willing to give.
- Manny and Dunn: We have eNNough OF, and I wouldn't trust either one at 1B. No thanks, though we could use their power.
- Hank Blalock: He does not even hit like Neifi outside of his home park, he would just be an expensive (and long-term) version of Jose Castillo that we had in 2008
- Casey Blake: He's old and the Giants really should keep 3B open in case Frandsen or Sandoval need to play there because other players/prospects do well enough to earn the opportunity to start.
- CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe: we have enough strong pitching and I don't want to sign one of these only to have to trade Matt Cain. No more talk about trading Matt Cain, fans can be idiots sometimes, complain about players with no loyalty to the team and Cain wants to be here long term, he had no childhood team, so he's really attached to our team. I want him here long term.
- Relief pitchers: I think any of the Type A relievers will want too much money, but if Trevor Hoffman is willing to sign up to be Wilson's setup guy for a one year $3-5M contract, I think I can go for that. Among the Type B relievers, I like Alan Embree for $1-2M, Jeremy Affeldt for 2-3 years at $1-2M, but no one else interests me. If we can get Scott Eyre back for a small amount, that would be great as well, as he is on neither list and like others, might want to come back, though the Phillies want him back, so he's probably going back to them.
No Big Ticket Items Signing, Please
Ultimately, I don't want the Giants spending big bucks on any player because he could hamper efforts by the Giants to sign Lincecum and Cain into their free agency years. They should be our first priorities going forward in terms of contract commitments. A short 2-3 years commitment is fine, but nothing longer term than that.
I think people are thinking too much about 2009. We have a number of power hitters prospects who might be able to deliver the big punch for us in 2010, when we are targeting to contend. Just give them the opportunity to see what they can do, get in a scrum and fight each other, and see what happens.
Hopefully, by next off-season, we will find out if any of them fit the bill, whether (in combination with each other) Lewis, Rowand, Sandoval, Ishikawa, Phelps, Bowker, Rohlinger, or Schierholtz. If not then hopefully Jonathan Sanchez has had a very good year under his belt, that is, throw a complete season like he did in the first half before the All-Star break, he had a 3.97 ERA overall in 19 starts, 111 IP, only 98 hits though 53 walks, but 115 strikeouts (9.3 K/9; 2.2 K/BB; both of which are very good), 0.8 HR/9, 1.36 WHIP, and hitters were hitting only .237/.326/.370/.696 against him, 41 AB/HR, 10 DOM starts out of 19 (Giants were 7-3 in those DOM games), that's elite level pitching. That's a top of rotation pitcher and should get us a strong middle-of-lineup hitter, should we need one.
I would rather keep him, but with Madison Bumgarner and/or Tim Alderson coming up in the 2010-2011 timeframe, and with Lincecum and Cain already in the rotation, if the opportunity should present itself to procure a young power hitter for Sanchez, I think we need to go for it.
But no to the Twins for Delmon Young, I think it's funny that they traded Garza for Young and now want to trade Young for a good young starting pitcher. Cry me a river, I'd rather keep Sanchez than deal with them again. Plus we don't need another OF, and a thus far powerless one at that. Maybe if they give us Young and Brendan Harris, plus a prospect, a huge overpay, otherwise, screw them, let them learn what a big mistake they made.
I agree with most of what you're saying, except for some parts. Especially the Pat Burrell part. The guys all cheap power and no average. And he gets a lot of help from the Phillies park. He'd be expensive, he's not that good, he's getting old, and he's also a type A free agent. He's definitely not worth giving up a draft pick to sign.
ReplyDeleteAnd also, I think Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal make a lot of sense for us. We have Manny at SS and basically just Frandsen at 2nd. One or both of them could not pan out, so I think we should shove them both to one position and let them platoon. Also, both Furcal and Hudson are stellar on defense and can hit well for their position.
I also don't think it's fair to say trading Matt Cain is stupid; he's worth a lot on the trade market and could bring back quite a bit if some team is willing to overpay, which some team might be. I also think we need a FA starting pitcher. We have a rotation of Lincecum/Cain/Zito/Sanchez with no 5th starter because we dropped Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey. I think you're right about the big name pitchers because we don't need an ace, but we could try a cheap one like Pedro Martinez or Paul Byrd. And I also think it'd be worth it just to see if CC has any interest in coming here for cheap, which he might because he actually would prefer to come to SF, which he specifically said. It's not often a perennial Cy Young cantidate really wants to come to your team.
Thanks for your comments boonitez.
ReplyDeleteCheap power? He's actually hit as well at home as on the road, plus more HR power on road. Not everyone gets a Citizen Bank Park boost:
Home: .259/.369/.482/.851, 118 HR in 2224 AB, 18.8 AB/HR
Road: .255/365/.488/.853, 133 HR in 2311 AB, 17.4 AB/HR
But as I noted, I agree with you that he's probably too expensive plus he's older (32 next year) and that we should pass. But a bat as good as his is worth a lousy 2nd round draft pick, which as I had shown to boof in comment on another post, had not resulted in any good players being drafted from 1986-1998. And Burrell definitely is a good hitter (just not good defensively; he's a DH, maybe Oakland?).
I especially like Orlando Hudson too. I would love Furcal if he were healthly but he's had recent health problems. But I would not want them because they will want and get at least 4 year contracts, that will interfere with us re-signing Cain and Lincecum. If we can get Furcal to sign for bigger bucks and shorter length, like the D-gers, then I'm for it.
I think it is fair to say trading Matt Cain is stupid if you believe in the research that I've been presenting in my Hey Neukom series. To build a team for maximizing your chances of success in the playoffs, the only three metrics, offensive, pitching, and defense, that was significantly correlated was pitching staff strikeout rate, closer effectiveness (WRXL) and team defense. Cain is a high K pitcher.
In addition, I have discussed how having two aces atop the rotation gives a team an advantage in any short series. Ideally, Sanchez would be that co-ace with Lincecum because he strikes out so much, but I like Cain as a pitcher more so than I do Sanchez.
A team might be willing to overpay, but that would probably set back our rebuilding efforts by at least an additional year or two, when we already lost 2008 and 2009 off of Lincecum's time with us. I would rather the Giants use 2009 to see what our young players got, sign any premium difference makers (versus the spare parts we signed before) that they can, and prepare to be contenders in 2010.
If we are trying to be competitive in 2009, then yes, a vet 5th starter would be nice. I would rather see what we got in the minors plus see if Lowry can come back. Lowry, Misch, and now Pucetas is competing for that spot. If any of them can come through for us, they are that much more valuable in terms of trading chips. In addition, I expect both Bumgarner and Alderson to be promoted to AA for 2009 and if they continue to mow through the hitters like they did in 2008, I expect them to be moved to AAA by mid-season and there would be an outside chance they could be ready for the majors by August, and so the 5th starter could just be keeping the spot warm for one of the two.
FYI, Pedro Martinez is a big name pitcher, he is not going to come cheap, despite his injuries and such that he's been battling. He will not come cheap.
Paul Byrd is OK if we can get him for under $3M for one season but he's probably going to get a two year contract in the $16-22M range as he was still relative effective and average the past two seasons and average pitchers have been getting around $10M per season. I don't call that cheap.
Sabathia is just doing what any good free agent would do, which is to say that he would love to play at such and such a place for whatever reason. If he loves the Bay Area so much, why is he building a huge home for himself in the LA area? Plus, he's from Vallejo, so was he a Giants fan growing up or an A's fan? I know Dontrelle Willis is a huge Giants fan though from Alameda, but I don't know about CC.
If he is willing to sign really cheap, maybe, but cheap for him would still be more than what Zito is getting from us in his contract. For someone who is a huge wide-body, a body type that don't really have a long shelf-life in the MLB. Yeah, Sabean can kick the tires and do his due diligence, but I don't see it happening and probably don't want to see it happening because of the long term effect on the budget and resigning Cain and Lincecum into their free agency years.
So you are saying that you would not trade Cain for Fielder and Hardy? A 24 year old corner infielder with proven 50 hr power? I'm not sure how I see that it would set us back, seeing as how we were last in the league in HR last year and close to last in runs scored. Alderson and Baumgarder will be coming along quicker than most people think, and will be able to replace Cain. Where else are we going to get the same value that we could get with Fielder?
ReplyDeleteYes, I know that Cain has been very solid in his stint, and I love him as a pitcher. But our problem is not in our pitching. We need to do whatever we can to improve our offense, especially in the area of driving in runs. Would you rather not trade Cain and have him go 8-14 with a 3.76 ERA again, or would you rather give our other pitchers a fighting chance to win games where they don't have to throw shutouts?
I haven't heard that trade, I've only heard Cain for Fielder.
ReplyDeleteBut if the Brewers or any other team want to make an idiot type of trade and overpay for Cain, sure, I would listen. How about Florida sends us Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla to us for Cain? Or the Mets could send us David Wright and Jose Reyes? How about Albert Pujols and Colby Rasmus?
Still, I know what we got in Cain, you have no idea what Alderson and Bumgarner will do up here, though right now everything looks positive. Having Fielder and Hardy would help the offense, but if you've read any of my other posts, particularly my Hey Neukom series, you would know that it is plus pitching and defense that wins in the playoffs, not offense. Neither Fielder or Hardy are particularly plus in defense that I can recall, both are good because of their offense. And even with them, the Brewers didn't make the World Series, did they? Which I assume the goal is for the Giants, winning the World Series.
Thus I would rather have Cain as part of my building block right now for future playoff success rather than take the easy way out now and try to get some success winning in 2009. I'm trying to take the long term view and not trade off the pitching we'll eventually need in the World Series just to be better in 2009.
Did I say that Cain is untouchable long-term? No, though I suppose some might read that into my statements. For this off-season, I see no reason to trade Cain. He made a giant leap in development this season (first season he pitched well on the road, not just at home) and he's maturing.
Once Bumgarner and/or Alderson (or anyone else) show that they not only belong in the show but is as good as Cain, then I would consider trading some of our riches in starting pitching. I think Sanchez is close and want to have him have a great full season in 2009 before we flip him for offense.
Screw offense in 2009, try to piece together whatever we can while holding onto our core strengths, which is our pitching. It's a rebuilding year, we need to figure out whether players are worthy or not and give other players time to show what they got.
If Sanchez can put together a full season what he did in half a season in 2008, we will still be able to get Fielder and Hardy for Cain or Sanchez next off-season. Or maybe even better if Cain and Sanchez develops the way I think they will show in 2009.
And Cain has not just been "very solid", he's been one of the best around the NL, I don't know why Giants fans seem to downgrade what Cain has accomplished in three seasons.
And the Giants were above .500 in August and September with essentially the team they have today.