Expert Says "Don't Worry About Posey"

Baseball America's latest "Ask BA" column discussed the top picks who haven't signed yet. They also noted some above slot signings in the 3rd and 4th round by the Nats.

Posey Situation

BA says: "Fear not, Giants fans." They note: "We're going through the usual last-minute rhetoric, with both clubs and players laying it on thick. "

They predict that "... Florida State catcher Posey (No. 5, Giants) will get [one of] the most lucrative deals in this year's draft, landing [a] major league contracts worth more than No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham's deal with the Rays. Beckham signed a draft-record $6.15 million bonus, with MLB calculating the present value at $4.7 million after Tampa Bay spread it over five years under provisions for two-sport athletes. "

And that's what I've been guessing as well, something in the $5-6M range, something like what Weiters got last season. For lazy agents who are Boras wannabes, they drag the negotiations to the last moment in hopes of getting that final bit of leverage and help pay for their high agent fees when the draftee probably could have signed a contract like Tim Beckham did without much haggling. They are just doing this to justify their fees and their existence.

That's why smart players like Ray Allen (NBA) negotiated on his own and hired experts on a consulting basis to look over the papers and make sure there are no legal backdoors and such. Saved himself a huge agent fee and probably got himself about what the agent would have gotten. With the slotting of baseball (or any other major sport), you only really need an agent if the team is a cheapskate historically (Giants have not been in that category) or you really want a lot over slot, which could be the draftees in the top 5 to top 10 picks overall. Those players have been going with Boras.

Over Slots

With the Nats signing Long Beach State shortstop Danny Espinosa (third round) for $525,000 and Florida high school pitcher Graham Hicks (fourth) for $475,000, that gives us an approximate ceiling on where our 3rd and 4th round picks, Kieschnick and Crawford might get, though Hicks had more leverage as a high schooler and got a bit more for that probably (if he had a good advisor). I don't see how they can turn down half a million now for the chance to improve their performance next season and maybe get a million as a first round draft pick.

If they can really improve their performance next season, then if they signed for $500K now, they would be doing it as a professional and probably a season closer to the majors (which pays nearly $400K per season), than they would saying back in college, and risking having little leverage as a senior. If you really believe that you can do better, wouldn't it be better in the minors than in college? Plus, had they signed early like some did, they would both have 100-200 ABs under their belt, and if they were as good as they think they could be next season, they could have boosted themselves even higher up the minor league ladder.

Haggling over what would probably end up being less than $100K difference from the slot doesn't nothing for their security (though it does give their agent a nice payday) plus prevents them from showing what they think they got and getting a headstart versus most of the rest of the draftees. All over an amount that is not lifechanging (not anywhere close to how lifechanging the bonus itself is).

Hopefully they sign, I don't have a gut feeling either way for the two, I am pretty sure Posey will sign one of the highest deals of this draft, but these two should have signed already. Yet they still haven't so that is discouraging to me, because that means that they have advisors who might not be totally representing their best interests, as it was in their best interest to sign quickly and prove yourself quickly before the others do.

If they are as good as they think, they would have been competing against a bunch of players from the later rounds and could beat up on them quickly and maybe get promoted quickly to Augusta or even San Jose. Now there will be little time to evaluate them - because while they might have nice college stats, this is the pros now, things are way different - and they will probably start lower than they could have been next season, had they played and proved themselves.

It is not like they were early first round picks, who are more of a sure thing, they were back of the first round type of guys, who are pretty much rolls of the dice to see what happens. Talent like that cannot really leverage to get much over slot, it's not worth it for the teams to do that. Now, they might believe that they are top of the draft talent, but neither of them were considered that highly from all the draft news I read.

I am more confident about Kieschnick signing than Crawford - Crawford has a UCLA degree he's working for that is valuable - but, still, not sure if either will sign.