- Buster Posey (R.1; 5th overall):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Originally recruited to Florida State as a pitcher, Posey spent his freshman year with the Seminoles as a shortstop only to move behind the plate as a sophomore. He added closer responsibilities to his repertoire this spring as a junior. His ability to adapt easily to such diverse positions speaks volumes about his athletic ability, makeup and feel for the game, though he still is working on some of the finer points of catching. Scouts said Posey was easily the best in the Cape Cod League last summer at catching, blocking and throwing, and the one catcher with above-average arm strength. He has on-line carry on his throws and unloads the ball quickly. His throws are a consistent 1.85 to 1.87 to second base. The most significant area he needed to improve from last summer was his footwork and he largely accomplished that in the fall at Florida State. He also became more accomplished receiving balls better down in the zone. Though he has limited raw power, Posey has a contact-oriented approach and hits to all fields with wood. He made significant strides at the plate in the second half of the Cape Cod League season as he used his hands more efficiently while eliminating his shoulders from his swing. He batted .281-3-19 last summer after hitting .382-3-65 with 21 doubles in the spring at Florida State.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/1): Posey enjoyed a breakout season, ranking among NCAA Division I leaders in many hitting categories while batting .469-16-66 with 43 walks and only 17 strikeouts (through May 15). He has also continued to polish his defensive skills behind the plate. There has been plenty of discussion about the home-state Tampa Bay Rays selecting Posey with the first pick in the draft. If you want a solid comparison for Posey, think of North Carolina’s B.J. Surhoff, a catcher/shortstop who was the first pick in the 1985 draft.—DAVID RAWNSLEY - Conor Gillaspie (R.1s):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Gillaspie had a solid sophomore season at Wichita State, hitting .325-6-53, but nothing to suggest he would have the breakout summer like he had in the Cape Cod League, where he topped the league in batting (.345), slugging (.673) and extra-base hits (21) on his way to earning league MVP honors. He showed a serious ability to square up balls, gave away few at-bats and took what pitchers gave him, pulling inside pitches and going the other way with pitches on the outer half of the plate. He drove numerous balls to the gaps with developing power. Almost overnight, he moved near the head of the class among the top college hitters in the 2008 class. He was steady defensively at third with good hands and arm strength, but scouts question his range, especially going to his left. Gillaspie has a tireless work ethic and unusually high expectations for himself. He is always taking extra hitting and looking for ways to improve his game, but he can be unusually hard on himself when he falters.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Gillaspie furthered his reputation as one of the top hitters in college baseball this spring, hitting .421-10-77 and throwing in eight triples, 16 steals and 36 walks for added measure. He was at his best as the season wore on and hit two home runs and drove in five in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game. Scouts question how much over-the-fence power Gillaspie projects, but there seems to be no question that he has the bat speed and hitting skills to hit line drives at all levels. Gillaspie did struggle defensively at third base, making 16 errors and fielding less than .900. Scouts said that no one area was at fault, that he was inconsistent both throwing and catching the ball.—DAVID RAWNSLEY - Roger Kieschnick (R.3):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Kieschnick has the makings of becoming a five-tool talent, but hasn’t put everything together yet. He spent two summers with Team USA and his most obvious improvement from 2006 to 2007 came at the plate. The raw power he routinely displayed in batting practice in his first season manifested into in-game power last summer, enabling him to improve his home run total from one to a team-leading seven. He also improved his total at Texas Tech from nine as a freshman to 13 as a sophomore. He showed more pull power and stayed inside balls well, enabling him to drive pitches from right-center to left-center, but his swing is still a little stiff and he remains prone to striking out. He lacks looseness and rhythm at the plate, but he makes hard contact and the ball jumps off his bat. His speed, arm strength and defensive skills are all average to plus tools, though he still needs work on getting better angles on balls in the outfield. Kieschnick has the intangibles to succeed as well. He’s a mature, level-headed player who plays the game aggressively. He should continue to grow into his game.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Kieschnick’s 2008 season was a duplicate of his sophomore campaign as he hit with power, commanded the strike zone well, ran the bases well and played an excellent right field. He still didn’t show the ability to hit for average (.305-17-65, 35 walks) as much as scouts expected, given his tools. College outfielders with a strong, athletic tool package are rare in this draft and that should guarantee Kieschnick a slot in the top two rounds.—DAVID RAWNSLEY - Brandon Crawford (R.4):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Crawford had a poor 2007 summer season in the Cape Cod League for Orleans, hitting just .189-4-14 with 45 strikeouts while committing 13 errors—high among league shortstops. He showed flashes of his considerable ability, particularly with his speed, range and above-average arm strength, but his raw lefthanded power and overall hitting ability didn’t translate well from BP into game situations. All could be forgotten by this spring, however, if he plays to his potential—or even returns to his sophomore form at UCLA, when he batted .335-7-55. With the possible exception of his bat, Crawford has legitimate five-tool ability and could be the first college shortstop drafted in 2008. He is normally a sound defender with excellent hands and footwork. He needs to be more consistent in the field, however, as he is capable of making the spectacular play but often botches the routine ones. His arm is both strong and accurate, and is a significant weapon but he tends to rely on it too much. He is prone to sitting back on balls hit to him and letting his arm do most of the work. He needs to be more aggressive coming in on balls and getting rid of them quicker. Crawford has good poise for his age, but just needs to figure it out with the bat.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Crawford continued to tease scouts with his first-round tools, but didn’t perform like a first-rounder most of the 2008 season. He hit a modest .288-5-39 for an underachieving UCLA team and struck out at a high rate (54 times in 198 at-bats). His bat remains his biggest question mark. He swings and misses too often, particularly when he chases off-speed pitches. He has poor pitch recognition and is prone to being too pull-conscious. His greatest strength continues to be his defense. He’s a sure-handed shortstop with range and arm strength. He has playable speed.—AS - Edwin Quirate (R.5): SCOUTING REPORT: Quirarte hasn’t received the exposure that a number of other college closers have in this year’s draft, but he has quietly improved his stock to where he may be picked as early as the fifth round. He was used as a starter in his first two seasons with the Matadors, with unimpressive results, but found his niche in a role where his competitive nature worked best and he could unleash his fastball in short bursts. It was clocked at a steady 90-93 mph and enabled him to post a 3-3, 1.86 record with eight saves. He continued to use his slider and split-finger as secondary pitches, but his command of those pitches is just average.—ALLAN SIMPSON
- Eric Surkamp (R.6):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Surkamp worked in tandem with his former Moeller High pitching mate Andrew Brackman at the front of the N.C. State rotation last season before Brackman, who was drafted in the first round by the New York Yankees, was sidelined with a sore arm that led to Tommy John surgery. Surkamp struggled to win games when Brackman went down and ended up with a 4-5, 3.47 record with 84 strikeouts and 27 walks in 96 innings. Despite his big, strong frame—and, in stark contrast to Brackman, who topped out at 99 mph—Surkamp does not throw particularly hard and his stuff is considered marginal by pro standards. His fastball is just in the 86-89 mph range though will touch 90, but he has an advanced feel for pitching and can keep hitters off balance with a three-pitch mix. He rarely throws consecutive pitches at the same speed or to the same location. He went 2-0, 1.85 with 26 strikeouts in 24 innings for Orleans of the Cape Cod League last summer, before being added to Team USA’s roster for the latter part of its international schedule. If Surkamp can somehow increase the velocity on his fastball even 2-3 mph, it would help his stock considerably in the draft, but most scouts believe he is what he is and project he’ll be a 5th-10th round pick in 2008. He has a good changeup and an average breaking ball but needs to spot those pitches, along with his fastball, consistently to be effective.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Surkamp was pretty much what he was a year ago—a big lefthander with a good feel for pitching but ordinary stuff. He went 5-2, 4.39 with 82 strikeouts in 70 innings as one of N.C. State’s two primary starters. He pitched better late in the season, raising hopes he’ll be drafted closer to the fifth round than the 10th.—AS - Aaron King (R.7):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Pitt CC sophomore third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall has garnered most of the attention from scouts this spring among top prospects in the North Carolina junior college ranks, but King has also garnered his share of intrigue. Though he wasn’t unknown to scouts as a high school senior at North Carolina’s Fred T. Foard High, where he pitched on the same staff as Clemson-recruit Trent Rothlin, Ford’s fastball was mostly 88-89 mph and he didn’t have a breaking ball. His command was below average. He’s obviously made enormous strides over the last year. The big lefthander has a live arm with a fastball in the 90-93 mph range. A downhill plane provides good life on the pitch low in the zone, with sink at the knees and arm-side tailing action. His secondary pitches—a long, sweeping slurve at 70-74 mph that lacks crispness and an adequate 81-84 mph changeup—also rely on location to be effective. King is very aggressive and holds nothing back on each pitch. But he is more thrower than pitcher at this stage of his development. His size and arm strength, though, are significant attributes that will keep scouts coming back.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): King was everything he promised to be this spring with a fastball up to 94 mph, though it was more commonly in the 90-92 range. Physically, he fits the profile of the big, powerful, loose lefthander. He still has a way to go in streamlining his delivery, but he has made significant strides in adding movement to his fastball and developing a curveball that now grades as average. He has a changeup, but rarely uses it. The command of all his pitches is significantly better. King was dominant as a junior college freshman, posting a 5-4, 1.91 record with 98 strikeouts in 66 innings. He walked 34, but was touched up for only 38 hits. He has the whole package for a team that might willing to take a run at him in the first couple of rounds, but most clubs don’t feel comfortable enough taking a junior college pitcher with a limited history that early.—AS - Scott Barnes (R.8):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Barnes has made a lot of strides in his evolution as a pitcher since he was offered $200,000 to sign out of a Massachusetts high school in 2005. He went 7-2, 2.93 with 99 strikeouts in 95 innings as a sophomore at St. John’s. He sought to continue his development during the summer in the Cape Cod League but left in the middle of his second start with tendonitis and was shut down for the season. Tall and lanky with a loose, quick, power arm, Barnes’ fastball explodes at 90-93 mph with slight tailing action to the first base side. He also has a slurve-like breaking ball but still needs to refine his circle changeup. He maintains a good arm slot and speed on the pitch, but it lacks fade or sinking action. Barnes’ three-quarters delivery also needs cleaning up as he throws with a slinger-like arm action. He has a focused, confident, high-energy approach to pitching with good pitchability and projects as a starter in pro ball—providing his changeup continues to develop.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Barnes’ velocity was up and down most of this spring, ranging from 87-91 mph, but he started throwing his fastball by hitters more consistently later in the year when it reached 92-93 mph. His command of the pitch was better, too, and he mixed in a near-average slider and a fair change, which he didn’t throw very often. As the leader of St. John’s deep pitching staff, he went 7-3, 3.69 with 45 walks and a team-high 90 strikeouts in 90 innings. Long-time area scouts compared his frame, stuff and approach to pitching to former St. John’s lefthander and ex-big leaguer C.J. Nitkowski, the ninth overall pick in the 1994 draft. While there were questions early in the season whether Barnes justified his status as the state’s top prospect, he solidified himself late in the season as a solid second- or third rounder—possibly even a sandwich pick of his home-state Boston Red Sox, if that club makes drafting a player with local ties a priority.—AS - Ryan Verdugo (R.9):
SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Verdugo was one of the key recruits LSU’s second-year coaching staff pinned its hopes on to jumpstart the once-mighty Tigers program, which has been a Southeastern Conference also-ran the last two years. The Skagit Valley (Wash.) JC transfer was installed as the No. 2 starter in the rotation this spring after impressing in the fall with a fastball in the 88-91 mph range, topping at 92. His changeup and 12-to-6 curveball were also effective pitches. Verdugo, a fourth-year junior, has traveled a varied path since being drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies out of a Washington high school in 2004. He attended Oregon’s Division III George Fox College as a freshman but almost immediately blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Shortly thereafter, he transferred to Skagit Valley and spent the 2006 season there exclusively as a DH. He was finally healthy enough to resume pitching in 2007 and impressed Northwest scouts with his strong, athletic body, quick left arm and compact arm action from an abbreviated windup. He has difficulty throwing all his pitches consistently for strikes as he struggles with his delivery, but he is still able to compete with fringe stuff and command. Verdugo might have gone much sooner in the 2007 draft than the 47th round but his high price tag and near-binding commitment to LSU scared teams off.—ALLAN SIMPSON
UPDATE (5/15): Verdugo thrived this spring in his first chance at Division I baseball and helped carry the resurgent LSU team with him, going 8-2, 3.61 with 75 K’s in 82 innings. He throws a variety of different fastballs between the low 80s and low 90’s, some with cut, some with sink and some straight and hard. He is very effective pitching off his fastball. His other offerings, a curveball and a changeup, are solid but not out-pitches. Verdugo is very young for a fourth-year junior, having just turned 21, so it won’t be a given for him to go out this year as it might be for many players in that situation.—DAVID RAWNSLEY - Ryan O'Sullivan (R.10): SCOUTING REPORT: O’Sullivan and his brother Sean, now a highly-successful pitcher in the Los Angeles Angels organization, are the first brother combination ever to be named Aflac All-Americans (Sean was a 2004 selection). The younger O’Sullivan, much like his brother before him, has been a fixture in SoCal baseball circles since he was the MVP of the San Diego Stars’ national AAU championship team as a 9-year-old. O’Sullivan has always excelled as a two-way player at shortstop and on the mound, although (like his multi-talented brother) his upper-level baseball future is likely on the mound. Despite his part-time status on the hill, O’Sullivan throws 89-91 mph with hard, heavy sinking action on his fastball. His breaking ball is a 77-mph slurve that can be tightened into a slider. O’Sullivan is a polished pitcher and a ground-ball machine, and should continue to improve when he gets on the mound full-time. If he goes the college route, O’Sullivan could excel as one of the country’s top two-way players, just as he has done his entire baseball career thus far.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
- Justin Fitzgerald (R.11): SCOUTING REPORT: Fitzgerald went just 1-4, 4.96 with three saves as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2007, but made a huge statement on the opening weekend of the 2008 season when he came out firing a fastball that topped out at 94-95 mph. Almost overnight, he became a legitimate prospect. Fitzgerald continued to flash velocity in the 91-93 mph range with late life the rest of the season, and mixed in a solid 79-81 mph slider. He also tinkered with a curve and changeup. The upshot was a dominating season as the closer for UC Davis. He went 3-1, 2.90 with 13 saves. In 31 innings, he walked five and struck out 34. Fitzgerald, who took a medical red-shirt in 2006, looks the part in a uniform at a strapping 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds.—ALLAN SIMPSON
- Ari Ronick (R.12): SCOUTING REPORT: Ronick was drafted by the Reds a year ago, despite going 2-4, 3.05 with 22 strikeouts in 41 innings, missing several starts with a sore arm and subsequently undergoing surgery to address a stress fracture in his elbow. His first outing this season was his first in 10 months. He had no ill effects from his surgery at all in 2008 and showed scouts a short, quick, smooth arm action with a good feel for pitching. His fastball was consistently in the 87-91 mph range—solid for a tall, athletic lefthander. He has three other pitches—a slider with short, late tilt, a big-breaking three-quarters curve and a circle change—that are generally effective. His changeup is his best pitch. Ronick pitches to contact and went 4-7, 5.03 with 17 walks and 46 strikeouts in 63 innings this season—representative of the way he pitched as a four-year starter at Portland. Northwest scouts see him as a solid senior lefty with decent stuff.—ALLAN SIMPSON
Pre-Draft Top 50
In addition, they had a pre-draft Top 50 listing as well that they published on May 12th:
- Buster Posey (#1; pick #5 overall): It's been the Spring of Dreams for the Seminoles catcher, as he's been arguably college baseball's top hitter, furthered his defensive abilities behind the plate and put himself in position to be the No. 1 overall pick.
- Roger Kieschnick (#46; pick #82 overall): Kieschnick is a four-tool outfielder with his pro level power, speed, throwing and defense; the question will be how his hitting ability develops.
- Brandon Crawford (#48; pick #117 overall): Crawford's slow start and contact issues have taken him out of the first round, but his athleticism, defensive skills and potential will still get him drafted high.
Oddly enough, Conor Gillaspie was not ranked among the top 50.
Giant Thoughts
Lots of speculation over whether we can sign a number of our draftees. Below are my comments.
Gerald "Buster" Posey
Obviously, #1 is Buster Posey (the Giants loves these B-nickname players, like Boof :^). He is definitely signing, because he has nothing to prove nor improve by staying in college another year, he could only hurt his draft status with an injury or sub-par season. Thus the main question is when he will sign, soon or at the deadline like most did last year.
It is a distinct possibility that Posey could sit out until then, but I have to assume the Giants realize that time is the essence for Posey, the sooner he’s in the system, the sooner he’s moving up the system, particularly if they hope for him to have any chance of taking over in 2010, though they might do it anyway, as it wouldn’t be the first time that a player with a major league glove but developing bat gets thrown out there to start.
From his end, he’s better off signing this year, as it should cut a year off his development time to reach the majors, and make up some of the money that way. And the sooner he makes the majors and make all the teams who passed him up pay for not selecting him.
Thus far, there have been a number of signings already in the first round, so things seem to be moving faster. That's probably because last year was the first one where the August 15th deadline was put in place plus the recommended slot bonus was reduced 10%. This year, it's the second year of the system plus the slots have been raised by 20% over last year, which was a reversal of last year's 10% decrease plus a 10% increase. So I'm hopeful that Buster will sign sooner than later, he seemed pretty jazzed about getting selected by the Giants. In addition, I came across a rather heart-warming story about him and given that humble background, I doubt that he'll be going for every dollar he can get but rather probably has a figure he thinks is fair that he will want.
So that brings the question: what is fair? It would be what the top talent got from last year's draft. Weiters did get $6M when the slot was $2.25M for the #5 pick and Price got $5.6M last year as the #1 pick ($3.6M slot). In addition, Porcello got $3.58M, which is almost what the #2 pick got, Moustakas got $4M (and was slotted for $3.15M).
So I think that $4-5M is about what a top pick could expect to get in the draft without Boras as your agent, and if I were Posey’s agent I think that arguing for $5-6M would be where I would start and be happy with $3-4M and a major league contract when the deal is done. And Sabean said in a post-draft interview that the Giants would be open to a major league contract, which would fast track Posey.
About the rumored demand for $12M, I think the $12M was a red herring they threw out to get Tampa Bay not to draft Posey, and probably Pittsburgh too. Most also knew that Alvarez would be the Pirates pick if available and most knew that it was down to T.Beckam and Posey for TB, so the dominos would fall T.Beckham and Alvarez with the $12M request, then probably Hosmer to KC as per all the rumors, and the Orioles would be unlikely to draft Posey because of Weiters, leaving the Giants or at worse the Marlins to select Posey, both teams needing catchers desperately, but SF willing and able to pay for a top pick.
I doubt the Giants tipped off their hand in terms of selecting Posey, but I can see Posey’s agent letting the Giants know what they were looking for if the Giants selected him, in order to influence them to draft him with their pick.
Out of the top teams picking, if I were Posey, I would want the Giants or Marlins to select me. They both need a future catcher and fast, as both teams are nearly rebuilt and nearly ready to compete, meaning that Posey could rise quickly. Orioles has Wieters in the way and the Royals and Pirates have a history of incompetence in the way and no track record that things will necesarily get better, though the Royals are nicely stacked right now. The Rays are improving, have a great set of young players, but again, no track record of success.
As much as people like to ride on Sabean, he does have a history of success behind him, as do the Marlins. In addition, Sabean values defense and versatility, which Posey have in spades, and therefore we might pay more for Posey than another team. Also, Posey, not expected to be a huge HR hitter, would not be affected much by playing at AT&T, so he’s not scared away by our park’s image as a pitcher’s park (which has not held up in recent years but the media still hasn’t learned yet so others probably haven’t either) that kills HR power.
Conor Gillaspie
According to one account of the draft, Conor Gillaspie was clearly disgusted when he fell out of the first round. So the thinking goes that he won't sign because he will want to go higher in the draft. Let's say he does do that and get selected at the end of round 1 next year.
Last year’s end of first round got roughly $100-200K more than what the 37th pick of 2007 draft. So if he signs quickly and rise fast, he would make that money up quickly, particularly since the Giants only have Castillo penciled in for 2009-2010 right now, and Rohlinger is the only prospect ahead of him right now.
In addition, the best revenge is making the majors ASAP and starting and hitting well. :^)
I was more impressed with Gillaspie after reading this description, not that previous ones were lacking, but rather this one makes his accomplishments more significant for me. I like the fact that he has a tireless work ethic, those are the kind of players who continually improve themselves. I also didn't know about his ability to steal or take a walk. He was a good pick before, but I really like him after this one, he looks like a good #2 hitter. The only problem was his defensive problems at 3B but I haven't see anything that says that he'll have to change positions at some point in the future..
Roger Krieschnick
What's not to love about a player who has 4-5 tools? Unfortunately, the one tool missing is hitting, so he's probably going to strike out a lot but he has loads of power. I don't expect any problem signing, he should be slotted to get around $500,000, based on what his overall pick number got last year plus the increase in slot money, so unless he thinks he can improve a lot next season, it would be hard for him to turn that type of bonus down. Again, as noted for others, signing now means he start in the majors a year sooner probably, so any delay of that timetable will cost him more than his improvement in bonus unless he can get himself into the first round, either regular or supplemental.
Brandon Crawford
He could be the steal of the draft for us, even more than Posey, Gillaspie or Krieschnick. Though a fourth round draft pick, the commentary above has him having first round tools and 5 tool-ability as well. He also looks like he can stick at SS, and that is an area where our farm system could use more talent. Defense is his most developed tool so far; his hitting is probably the least. But, the comment above states that he was good enough to be thought the first SS drafted, so that is pretty good to get here back in the fourth round.
He's probably the most likely of the top picks to not sign and go back for next year's draft. He fell far from where he could have been, and given the question marks on him, making the majors is not a sure thing for him; whereas the others above him clearly will probably make the majors, the main question is will they stick. Since the majors is not a given for him, signing would not necessarily mean that he will make more money sooner by signing with the Giants.
However, I still think he signs. He's from the Bay Area, so he'll be nearby during his journey up the farm system, allowing family and friends to watch him play. His bonus is still substantial, $300,000 range, and if he has another subpar year, he's going to fall enough further back in the draft. Take the money and see if he can resusistate his career in the minors, if he's looking for money, the majors will bring him more than what the bonus he would get in the first round plus he would get to play in front of his family and friends at AT&T, instead of, say, Pittsburgh or KC.
Edwin Quirate
Signed already! Some wonder if we paid too much.
Last year, early 5th rounders got about $150K and the 147th pick last year was slotted with $162,000. According to the reports, the slots were raised this season about 7% for the 2nd to 5th rounds, which would put the 147th pick slot bonus to $173K approximately. Plus there is the reversal of the decrease of last year, so that makes the slot approximately $190K.
$193K is roughly equal to my estimated slot, so he was not paid too much.
Early Signings
And he is not the only one to sign already, there are a lot of players signed already. My guess would be that they realized that fighting over slot or slightly above slot is not worth the lost time of evaluation and acclimation and education that occurs when the player signs early and starts playing in short-season A-ball or rookie league.
In addition, I think that signings are quicker this season because the slot was increased to where it should have been relative to 2006, plus they now have one draft under their belt regarding the new August 15 deadline, there was a lot of stalling last season probably because of the new system. Plus, I’ll bet a lot of players realized that they lost all that time fighting over not a lot of money. For example, Fairley fought to the end and got $10K over slot. If that delays his getting to the majors by one week, there goes his $10K extra, plus more for every week after that.
Other Giants Picks
The other picks are all diamonds in the rough, with something good as a reason to draft him, and something bad that led to him falling that far back. However, Ryan O'Sullivan looks like he fell because of signability concerns, as he looks like he has a pretty clean history, he has accomplished a lot of things as he rose from Little League to high school.
He's from the San Diego area, so hopefully he's pals with Nick Noonan and decides to sign with us. I assume we will be going over slot if we do sign him, but you never know, as his brother is already in the Angel's farm system, so he could be aching to become a pro.
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