International Signing Season Starts: Giants Sign Another Angel

The international signing season started and while a number of teams have busted out their piggy banks and made some big signings - A's making the biggest with $4.25M for highly touted pitcher Michael Inoa - the Giants did not make the big signing but at least did get someone, Luis Angel Mateo. Mateo signed with the Giants on Wednesday, the first day international prospects are eligible to sign with major league clubs. The terms were not disclosed, which is the way the Giants usually does it. The amount might leak out somewhere in the next few days.

Here are his stats, which I got from here:

• a 16-year-old Dominican righthander
• 6' 3", 175 pounds (so he's a slim one, hopefully don't have to worry about him ballooning)
• John Barr on Mateo: "The Giants are very pleased to be able to sign Luis Mateo. He is a young, strong pitcher who shows good command of two pitches with a plus breaking ball. Today is the beginning of the signing season, and we will continue to be aggressive in signing players both domestically and internationally.”

Giants Thoughts

That is good to hear about the Giants intentions to be aggressive in signing players both domestically and internationally. Bodes well for signing Posey, Gillaspie, and Kieschnick, plus perhaps picking up that rumored Vlad-like Dominican prospect for $2.5M. That's the only way to go right now as the Giants rebuild, it's the biggest no-brainer in the history of MLB baseball, but at least they are doing it right.

Hard to imagine a 16 year old with good command of two pitches and a plus breaking ball, but given the success of the Giants with pitching, I will have to take their word for it. If he can develop nicely, he'll be part of the group of pitchers coming in after the third major wave when Bumgarner and Alderson make it to the majors (assuming they continue to develop). My assumption here is that the first wave was composed of Lowry, Cain, and Correia, among others, and next wave of Lincecum, Sanchez, and Wilson, among others. Bumgarner and Alderson will probably be the lead of the next (third) wave, with maybe Sosa, Wilber Bucardo, and others.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

This was what I was talking about long ago when I wrote about Sabean and his propensity toward pitching. When you develop a specialty, skill, in assessing this type of talent, this focus will pay off over time as your cup of pitching talent fills up until you reach the top and then will have a lot left over to trade away to get what you need.

Because there is a flexibility with pitchers that you don't get with position players: each pitcher can theoretically fill almost any of up to 12 positions on the team. If he is good enough, he can fill any spot in the rotation. Even if he is a back of the rotation starter, he can probably still fill any of the bullpen positions as well.

However, if you have a position player, he really can fill maybe 2 starting positions, at best. For while a bullpen pitcher can be very valuable to a team, being used regularly, a bench player is not really that valuable to most teams, unless he can really hit well, just not good enough to make up for his bad defense. That limitation makes it harder for that player to contribute to your team and thus to any other team, you have to find a team who really needs that position player to find a trading partner. As well, that limits the talent you get back for your position player, a limitation that doesn't apply to pitchers as much (their inherent health risk is, however).

I will have to update that article I wrote long ago, probably after my "Hey" Business Plan series.

Hey Neukom! My Giants Business Plan: Great Starting Rotation

As shown in my last post, preventing runs are very important and who has the biggest influence on that? The starting pitchers. That is another pillar in the strategy of creating the best team for success in the playoffs, and ultimately in the World Series.

That is the magic sauce that fans have been missing in baseball, the starting pitchers. In other sports, you can have a player dominate the game and take it other. In football, you got the right quarterback, the right running back, the team will be boosted over other teams. In basketball, you got the Jordans, the Abdul-Jabbars, the Magic Johnsons, the Shaq, who can take over a game and lead the team to victory. In hockey, you got the Gretzky's, the Lemieux's, who transcends the game.

In baseball, it is the pitcher's who has such control over a game. He pitches the most pitches in a game. He sets the tone for the game, both defensively and offensively. The former is obvious but the latter is clear from the games where the starter gives up a crooked number to start, in the first inning. A kick in the gut, when you are suddenly behind 2, 3, 4, 5 runs to start, no?

However, unlike other sports, the starting pitcher only pitches one game in five during the regular season, one game in three or four in the playoffs, and thus most people, including experts, downplay the importance of starting pitching relative to the hitters. That is partly why the hitters have been given more importance to the success of a team (another part is the home run is an offensive weapon that turns on the fans; a great pitching performance hasn't). But even the best offensive teams can face a mediocre starter and be shut down totally (see Met's Jones start against Giants in 2000's playoffs).

However, the best starting pitchers around ARE able to regularly shut down the other team. And if a team is able to put together a great pitching rotation overall, particularly on a 3-4 man basis, then the importance of the starting rotation is that much more important to the success of the team IN SHORT SERIES. They may not be relying on one particular pitcher but on one group of pitchers who altogether, if the talent level is high enough, can pitch as if they were one great pitcher, pitching every game. The key, obviously, is putting together such talent.

Hey Neukom! My Giants Business Plan: Great Defense Up the Middle

Most teams want good fielding defense. This is easily understood. Nobody wants to give up unearned runs. It's bad enough to give up a run but to give up one unnecessarily? Madness!

As commonsense as this is, it has been shown in a study that good team defense in the regular season is related to playoff success. Baseball Prospectus, it its book, "Baseball Between the Numbers", Chapter 9.3, "Why Billy Beane's S**t Doesn't Work In The Playoffs," studied the issue of success in the playoffs, and found that good fielding defense, using their proprietary measure, is significantly associated with team success in the playoffs, from 1972 to 1995. Thus, if any team wants to maximize their chances in the playoffs, you have to have good team defense.

Up The Middle

Furthermore, there is the old truism in baseball that you want to have strong defense up the middle: catcher, secondbaseman, shortstop, and centerfielder. This is also commonsense as well.

Let's examine the Giants defense in 2007. Obviously the catcher is key defensively because he handles each and every pitch. Cannot have passed balls or a lot of wild pitches that get away. Plus they handle the pitchers and the pitch selection as well. And has to be able to throw out base stealers on a regular basis. Thus defense is key there.

Both 2B and SS have a lot more assists and putouts than the 3B, over 50% more balls handled each. Obviously, 1B has a lot more than the other infielders, but the vast majority of them are throws from the other infielders straight (for the most part) to him, not fast grounders hit to him, particularly since most hitters are right-handers and most hitters pull the ball to their side of the field.

In the outfield, the centerfielder got over 100 more balls to handle than either of the corner outfielders, over 30% more balls to handle. In addition, the centerfielder is usually the quarterback of the outfielder, directing the other outfielders to certain positions, depending on the tendencies of the hitter and how the pitcher plans on attacking that hitter. Furthermore, in AT&T, with that huge right-center "Death Valley" gap, that gives the CF more real estate to cover in the outfield, requiring more defensively out of the centerfielder in AT&T Mays Field (it also demands more out of the rightfielder as well).

Thus, if it is important to have great fielding defense, then it is that much more important to have strong defense up the middle because they handle the most batted balls among the fielders. Obviously, this is more important for pitchers who put more balls into play, but people need to remember that even the pitchers with a lot of strikeouts and walks, who put less balls into play, still have the majority of plays (and outs) happening out on the field via a batted ball. Good defense is paramount, great defense up the middle is what you shoot for in putting together a successful baseball playoff team.