Since I’m collecting Bryce Eldridge’s batting game log data, I thought I would give a 25 game update.
ogc thoughts
After 25 games, Eldridge has impossibly gotten better with more game experience. It has been an uneven process, early on, causing consternation among Giants fans. But as I noted in my previous posts, he was handled by the Giants appropriately, giving him some game experience (where he had problems with striking out too much, with poor production) followed by a break to work on improvement, doing this twice, and since then, he has been an everyday starter, for the most part.
The breakthrough, which happened after the second break, was his ability to both control his strikeouts, as well as hitting for average and power, the whole package. He had 9 strikeouts in 23 PA, .412 OPS in his first 8 games played, but he had his breakthrough in game 9, and has hit .382/.462/.652/1.113 with much less strikeouts, resulting in 81% contact rate, 16% strikeout rate.
I have been tracking his contact rate and strikeout rate over 10 games spans, and he has steadily improved, even after the pitchers adjusted. His first ten games, he was at 82% contact rate and 15% strikeout rate. That’s when he started striking out more again, falling into the 74-79% range over the next 10 games, and was at 75% after 20 games. That’s when he figured out the pitchers again, based on the 10 game stats.
Starting with game 21, he has ranged from 81% to 84% contact rate, 13-17% strikeout rate. For context, the best hitters in the majors are in the 85% and better range, elite hitters in the 90% and better, for contact rate, and best hitters are 20% or lower, elite 15% or lower, for strikeout rate.
Eldridge is Among the Leaders
StatCast has a ranking of the best hitters in strikeout rate (link), and Arraez is first right now with 4.1% and Jung Hoo Lee is third with 9.3%. Eldridge is at 13.3% over his last 13 games, which would rank him him tied for 19th overall, and 15% would put him tied for 30th. His 16% during these 25 games would place him tied for 39th. All very good rankings.
Even for the full season, including his learning period, he’s at 19.8, which would rank him 67th overall (there are 390 position players rostered by MLB at any time, but I believe this ranking is just among qualified players; interestingly, Schmitt is currently 68th, Chapman is tied for 79th, they both move down one if we add Eldridge in).
Among rookies, he’s among the leaders as well. Out of 94 rookies (I removed all three of the ones at 0%), Eldridge was 22nd with his 19.8%. Both 15% and 16% would rank him 12th among rookies.
He’s also among the leaders in BB/K among rookies with 65%. He would be 38th among players overall if he had qualified. In general, you want hitters closer to 100% than 50%. In his breakthrough period, he’s at 82%, so he’s been pretty good.
All the signs are that he’s in control of his hitting right now, during this breakthrough period. His contact rate has been borderline great, especially in recent games. His Walks to Strikeouts ratio has been good as well. And, more importantly, he’s not only been hitting for high average, but he’s also hitting for high power (270 ISO, which would rank him 12th overall in the majors), as well as taking on a lot of walks (13.5%, tied for 24th overall in the majors).
I haven’t dug into his other stats much because he’s still very much in the small sample zone of this breakout period, and it is walks and strikeouts which stabilizes at around the 100 PA mark, which he is just above now. I have seen other prospects have a great month or more like this (Schierholtz, Williamson, Fitzgerald), only to fizzle out, unable to consistently hit that well. And this is what many long time fans like to point out, in order to disregard what Eldridge is doing.
The biggest difference is that the above players were never highly ranked as a prospect, even among Giants prospects, whereas Eldridge is easily among the top 20-30 prospects overall, for a number of seasons now. Also, he dominated in leagues where he was among the youngest hitters in the league. He also reached AA and AAA at a much younger age than the others.
I can’t remember any hitting prospect (who was drafted as a teenager) who has hit as well, and as young, as Eldridge, in the 50 plus seasons I have followed baseball. There is maybe Jack Clark, back when minor league stats wasn’t readily available, so he’s possible. Matt Williams is another, but it took him three seasons of struggles before he broke out with a great season, as Matty was a strikeout machine.
More impressively, Bryce’s peripheral stats (walks and strikeouts) all (as well as batting line) look like they are in good to great hitter territory, and he has sustained that for roughly a month now. Even during that dip in his second 10 game period (out of the 25 game breakthrough period), he still hit well: 1.115 OPS, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts in 42 PA (75% contact rate, 21% strikeout rate, 67% walk to strikeout, all still okay to good). Then he adjusted back, in the past five games, with only 2 strikeouts vs 3 walks in 22 PA, a great 11% contact rate, 9% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate, plus 1.237 OPS.
He’s just looking better and better, but we’ll see if he can keep this up. If so, his breakout will be a huge positive development in a so far (and likely) disappointing season.
But if the starting pitching and bullpen can hold up, the Giants might be able to put up a good run in the near future, and at least make things more interesting, for they are only 7.5 games out of a wild card spot. The Giants might be selling, with rumors of trading veterans, but with interesting prospects like McDonald, Whisenhunt, Tidwell, Whitman, and Wilkinson, and Schmitt around to take the place of any traded starting hitter, they won’t necessarily drop off further from the last wild card spot.
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