Still, I was underwhelmed sometimes by Sabean, then looked at his changes by seeing how he is pivoting his roster, even if the moves don’t look like they moved the needle much, and found improvements, whether by addition by subtraction or adding a minor addition where it is still a huge improvement over the previous season. So I will go over some examples of pivots I have seen so far in moves this offseason.
ogc thoughts
Devers Pivot
A key pivot that happened during last season was the acquisition of Devers. Even though he eventually returned to his prior good hitting, he was struggling initially, and played both 1B and DH, spreading his good hitting. So in 2025, per Baseball Reference, the Giants were -1.5 WAA at 1B, -0.4 WAA at DH, which translates to roughly 0.5 bWAR at first and 1.6 bWAR at DH.
Devers has averaged 3.9 bWAR over the past four seasons, and produced 4.1 bWAR in 2025. By himself, he should add 2.0 wins to the 1B and DH positions, plus whatever the other player playing the position he isn’t playing produces. He should even be an improvement defensively. Even if he’s only average (he had 2 DRS in 2025 at first base; average is 0), he is still an improvement because Wade was horrible (-6 DRS) at 1B and represented most of the -5 DRS produced by all the first basemen excluding Devers.
Assuming Schmitt plays most of them (and that Eldridge is in the minors mostly), he produced roughly 1.0 bWAR on a seasonal basis the past two years, so that’s another win, adding to 3.0 wins. If he can improve or if Eldridge forces his way up, that’s another win.
And Eldridge doesn’t need to be necessarily great to win a position. He is projected at .724 OPS by ZiPS and Devers .830 OPS. The Giants got .622 OPS and .754 OPS from 1B and DH, so Devers and Eldridge, as projected, would be an improvement offensively and defensively. Not sure how that affects WAR, but the Giants could decide to let Eldridge learn to hit in the majors if he shows enough in spring training.
Assuming the Giants are the 81 win team of last season, and taking the above, that gets us to 84 wins, with potential for more..
Starting Pitching Pivots
The Giants were actually -0.7 below average in starting pitching, despite how good Webb, Ray, Roupp and Verlander were. Average SP staff worked out to 11.2 bWAR overall, and the Giants was thus at 10.5 bWAR, and those four added up to 8.5 bWAR, meaning the rest only added 2.0 bWAR. And with Verlander apparently not coming back, that’s 1.2 bWAR loss there.
- Logan Webb: He’s as steady as they go, he should not end up lower, but with a season of pitching as a strikeout pitcher who can get ground balls, maybe he can get to where he was in 2021-23, but I won’t assume any improvement here, but there’s that potential.
- Robbie Ray: After 26 starts, he had a 2.85 ERA in 2025. In 2021, when he had a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts, he had 6.9 bWAR. In 2017, when he had a 2.89 ERA in 28 starts, he had 4.8 bWAR. He ended his last 6 starts with an 8.13 ERA. It was his first full season back from TJS, so it would make sense that he tired out at some point. He ended up at 2.8 bWAR. It isn’t extreme to think that he can repeat his performance but over a full season. And when he did before, he ranged from 4.8 to 6.9 bWAR, or 2 to 4 bWAR above what he produced in 2025. I wonder if the Giants will extend him at the end of this spring training.
- Landen Roupp: After 20 starts and 101 innings, he had a 3.11 ERA in 2025, then he went on the IL, and couldn’t get back to where he was afterward. Logan Webb had 3.8 bWAR in 2025 with 34 starts and 3.22 ERA in 2025. Roupp ended up at 0.7 bWAR, his first full MLB season. He was building up his stamina, he barely passed 100 IP previously in his career, and ended up at 109 IP. If they get him to 150 IP, and he continues to pitch well, that adds between 1 win (roughly average SP) and 2 wins (don’t see him matching up with Webb’s 2025). But to be safe, given that he seems injury prone, range of 0-2 wins added.
- Adrian Houser; Houser is projected by ZiPS to produce 1.4 wins in 2026.
- Tyler Mahle: ZiPS projects Mahle to produce 1.3 wins in 2026.
Overall, Webb should be about the same, Ray and Roupp can add 2 to 6 wins, and Houser and Mahle is projected to produce 2.7 wins combined, which is 1.5 wins above what Verlander produced in 2025, for a total of 3.5 to 7.5 more wins, assuming that the rest of the starting pitching in 2026 (Birdsong, Tidwell, Whisenhunt, Seymour, McDonald, Winn, Beck, Whitman, Choate, and others) can match the 2.0 wins produced in 2025. Even if the others can only get to 0 WAR, which means replacement level, that’s still 1.5 to 5.5 more wins.
Centerfield Pivot
Switching from Jung Hoo Lee to Harrison Bader in CF also means JHL in RF. So we can treat the two positions as a pair, like we did with 1B/DH. CF was -0.4 WAA and RF was -0.6 WAA, which works out to 1.6 bWAR and 1.5 bWAR, for a total of 3.1 bWAR.
In 2025, Jung Hoo was graded at -18 DRS in CF. That’s almost -2 wins. Meanwhile, Bader had +13 DRS. That’s basically 3 extra wins of defense with the switch in CF. It’ll be a lot to expect Lee to match RF, so maybe he matches or he’s a win worse. So that’s a 2-3 wins improvement defensively.
Offensively, Lee had .735 OPS while Bader had .796. Bader said he changed some things which improved his hitting, but that’s like the old saying, “I had a great spring”, we don’t know if that was it. And his three previous seasons, he hit only .644 OPS. If we estimate he can reach midway between last season and previously, that’s roughly Lee’s .735 OPS. If Bader can hit .735, but then add 3 wins to defense, that’s 3 added wins over what JHL produced in 2025.
Even if Bader doesn’t improve offensively, the offensive is at worse the same for CF and RF. Last season, CF had .734 OPS and RF had .631 OPS. Lee hit .735 OPS and ended much better, hitting .773 in the last three months, so he hopefully can be even better. But at worse, he repeats his .735 OPS. And if Bader repeats his .644 he hit the three prior seasons, the offense is the same, while the defense is improved by 2-3 wins, depending on how Lee does in RF.
With JHL in RF, if we just assume similar production, he would produce the 1.7 bWAR he had last year. That’s 0.2 more bWAR over last season. If he can continue to hit the .773 OPS that he hit in his last three months and/or improve on his defense, especially working next to Bader, who would take on the tough RF gap plays, that could be more wins, but hard to calculate. So, in total, 2.2-3.2 wins.
PIVOTal Totals
In summary, while there were not any significant changes in the roster during the offseason, the Front Office was likely accounting for pivots from what happened last season vs who they have for 2026.
- Team: base is the 81 wins from last season
- 1B/DH: +3 wins based on adding Devers
- SP: +1 to 7 wins, based on Ray and Roupp being able to continue pitching well deeper into the season, and how well the others contribute (I rounded down to be more conservative)
- CF/RF: +3 wins, from adding Bader’s defense, plus unknown offensive improvements from Bader and Lee. But if Lee repeats 2025 hitting and Bader repeats his prior performance level of his prior three seasons, plus Lee’s defense about average in RF, then the floor is adding 3 wins.
- Pythagorean: +2 wins because the 2025 Giants actually should have won 83 games.
Based on these potential gains, the Giants should rise from 81 wins to 90 wins, plus up to 96 wins, based on the above changes.
Bullpen Issues
Now, what we don’t know is other factors. The biggest one being the bullpen, after losing Rogers, Doval, Rodriguez. Tons of questions marks.
They were the three best pitchers in the bullpen accounting for 4.2 bWAR. The Giants were at 0.9 WAA, but the average was -1.2 so the Giants were at -0.3 bWAR. Thus, the rest of the bullpen was -4.5 bWAR, which drops the potential 2026 wins to 85-91 wins.
And it is still basically a question mark. Every member of the bullpen has question marks so big that none of them are reliably projectable. The Giants are basically throwing the spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks. The Nats had the worse bullpen, at -10.8 bWAR, so if the Giants matched that, they would range from 80-85 wins for 2026.
Still, will they be that bad? Probably not. Butto has been a good reliever over parts of four seasons, the best in terms of reliability among the staff. Walker had a bad season, but it was also a bad BABIP season, as his FIP was a good 3.30, so they are two good components of the pen. And Erik Miller has been very good, just injury prone, which is his question mark. That’s three of eight.
Sam Hentges should make that four. He should return to MLB, presumably healthy, else he would not have passed his physical. He was a highly effective reliever with Cleveland, 2.93 ERA over his last three seasons, roughly 0.8 bWAR per season. They cover the back half of the pen, set up men, with Vitello going with a closer by committee. Presumably until midseason when Jason Foley, former closer for Detroit, should be recovered from shoulder surgery.
So half of the bullpen is spoken for and reasonably reliable, though with question marks. Plus, Peguero produced 0.8 bWAR in his brief MLB stint. I also think that Winn and Beck could be good relievers, much as they were in 2023, producing a good amount of WAR, until injuries took them out of running for pitching staff roles. And Fulmer and Santos were good to great pitchers before injuries sidelined them. Plus there are starters like Whisenhunt, Tidwell, Birdsong, and we only need four of them to do well overall.
Another way to look at them is by projections. Here is the ZiPS projections for all the relief pitchers who are on the roster or NRI, where in 2025, the NL RP average ERA is 4.13 ERA:
- Ryan Walker: 3.25 ERA
- Sam Hentges: 3.22 ERA
- Jose Butto: 3.80 ERA
- Erik Miller: 3.75 ERA
- Keaton Winn: 4.12 ERA
- Tristan Beck: 4.07 ERA
- Reiver Sanmartin: 4.13 ERA
- Matt Gage: 3.96 ERA
- Trent Harris: 3.99 ERA
- Spencer Bivens: 4.33 ERA
- Joel Peguero: 4.42 ERA
- JT Brubaker: 4.36 ERA
- Michael Fulmer: 3.91 ERA
- Gregory Santos: 3.56 ERA
- WIlkin Ramos: 4.20 ERA
- Will Bednar: 4.73 ERA
Top 5 in NL RP was Chicago with 3.78 ERA, so we have four relievers who are likely to be roughly at or better than that in the first four relievers of the list. Most of the rest of the ten relievers on this list projects to between 3.78 and 4.13 ERA, that is, better than average. All the team needs is another four to meet or beat their projections to have a bullpen that’s above average, and perhaps Top 5.
So if the pen is as bad as last season, and arguably (given how good Butto has been plus Walker’s great FIP) that’s the floor, that leaves us with a pivot to 85-91 wins, which is a decent season, much like 2009. With blast off happening the next season if Eldridge can make the leap to MLB stardom.
Overall
All in all, despite minor additions to the team in this offseason, the Giants appear to be banking on improvements already on roster (Devers, Ray, Roupp) and player improvements (Bader, Lee). Plus whatever steps forward their young players can take in 2026, including Luis Arraez, who produced roughly 1 WAR in each of the last two seasons, but averaged roughly 4 WAR per season in the previous three. And Bader produced nearly 3 WAR, but is projected for around the 1 WAR he produced in prior seasons.
Of course, players don’t always repeat what they did before, nor do every player meet or beat their projections. Plus I’m worried about Webb pitching in the WBC, that’s early heavy pressurized pitching early n the season. And the bullpen has a ton of question marks, and really needs the top four pitchers to meet or beat their projections! So, as the old saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
Still, teams have to make some sort of projections to help plan for the upcoming season and the future. With the above projections, it seems reasonable that the Giants as constructed can greatly improve on last season’s wins with reasonable repeatable performances. It seems reasonable to think that mid-80’s wins is achievable and with some really good performances, maybe get into the 90-ish win range.
Many Giants fans like to point out the negatives that exist, and I see them too, but few point out the potential positives, and there are potentials for improvement which I didn’t account for:
- If Arraez or Bader can repeat recently good hitting seasons, that would be great additions.
- In the KBO, as Jung Hoo Lee learned the league, he improved each season, so he’s done it before. And he ended the season with three months of good hitting. If he continues that into 2026, or even improve upon it (reports are that he lost 12 pounds during the season, so if he fixes tha, he might hit for more power).
- Heliot Ramos had a down season offensively and defensively in 2025 vs2024. If he can return to or beat his 2024, that would be a good addition.
- Bailey had great starts to 2023-24, before having horrible second halves. He ended great in 2025 though, after his experiment with the torpedo bat torpedoed his hitting early on. If he solves his hitting (he claims he made an adjustment) and do it all season long, he’ll be an All Star.
- Webb could return to prior Cy Young heights.
- Both Houser and Mahle have also performed much better than projected in recent seasons, a repeat would add more wins. Both claim to have worked on things to fix past problems.
- Walker was great before his hiccup of a season in 2025. If he returns to prior goodness (and his FIP suggests he can) that would be a great to replace Rogers 2025 contributions.
- Both Whisenhunt and Birdsong showed their potential in 2023 by reaching AA by age 22, and have had hiccups since. Whisenhunt apparently was tipping pitches (another reason the Giants changed not only the manager but also the pitching coach), and has found a way not to.
- Tidwell looked ready for the majors last season until he got injured and missed the rest of the season.
- I’ve liked Jerar Encarnacion for a while now, and wonder how he could have boosted the team in 2025 if he didn’t injure himself in spring training. If he can claim the 1B/DH role along with Devers, he make a great impact in tandem.
Of course, it is not likely that most of these happen. Spring training stories of being in their best shape of their life and making adjustments that feel good abound, but not every one comes true. But fans like to focus on the potential negatives but ignore the potential for positives.
Each season can be such a grind, especially ones where the team isn’t expected to be good unless things go right more than wrong. I always try to enjoy the good stories of each season, and I think that there will be more of them this season than the last few. Go Giants!
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