Have been seeing a ton of articles about possible players the Giants might target, either via free agency or trade. For reference, The Athletic had an article projecting their Top 50 free agents and their projected contract and possible teams. I did not rely on their teams projections.
Posey himself has said that one thing his first season as PBOps taught him is that you can never have too much pitching. And he reiterated his belief that sustained competitive success for the Giants will depend on pitching and defense.
ogc thoughts
I have been saying for a while now that the Giants have already committed so much money to Webb, Chapman, Lee, Adames and Devers, that it doesn’t make sense not to go all in this offseason because this core of players is likely peaking in production over the next 2-3 seasons. Now is the time to spend, soon we could be hitting a decline from the core, and right now, only Eldridge and Lee might boost team production in two seasons to counter the decline and get the Giants on a sustainable stretch of competitive success.
Thus, I have been advocating that the Giants prioritize getting the following:
- Top of rotation starting pitcher
- Middle rotation starting pitcher with possible upside
- Tyler Rogers or a replacement for him
- Closer type pitcher, but not necessarily a Closer.
Ace Starting Pitcher
We need an ace SP to give us three for the 2025 season, along with Webb and Ray. As well, the Giants only have Ray signed for the 2026 season (unless they decide to extend him during spring training), and so it would be forward thinking to get a pair of aces secured for 2027 and beyond, instead of having to look around again in free agency for one or two aces after the 2026 season. Ideally we’ll get an ace this offseason so that the Giants will have three to start the 2026 season.
In addition, as my studies of PQS during the Dynasty period showed, having three ace level starting pitchers helps a team win during the season, as well as in the playoffs. Furthermore, a study by Baseball Prospectus found that have three good starting pitchers was statistically significant as a factor in going deep into the playoffs. Observing the rotation last season, the team had their best success when the had three (Webb, Ray, Roupp) SP who were pitching really well, and the season went south when Roupp left the rotation. Hopefully that’s how the Giants are thinking.
One thing that I didn’t but should have anticipated is that many of the top rotation pitchers will get QOed. And from what I read from MLB, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez, among many, got QOed. And after the Giants lost multiple picks the past two offseason for signing Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Willy Adames, I just can’t see the Giants going the QO route.
Though, after seeing Posey pull off signing Adames quickly and trading for Devers quickly, and firing Melvin quickly even though he just picked up his option, and now hiring Vitello, all bold moves, I guess it would be bold to sign another QO free agent. But, for now, I am assuming he’s avoiding QO free agents.
Another problem with these ace pitchers is that Greg Johnson, who speaks for ownership, noted recently that the Giants is “going to be cautious” when it comes to spending 9 figures on a pitcher, which seems to squash the idea of signing these two, among other top SP, and thus there have been many articles noting this and deciding that this idea is over.
The key thing here, however, is that he didn’t say that it was impossible, just that they will be cautious, which does not mean that it won’t happen, but just that it would take a lot to convince them to do this. And, really, isn’t ALL team cautious in handing out $100M contracts? Except maybe the Yankees…
Now, with the QO, however, that’s two big strikes against both pitchers (and others who got QO’ed) and all of them have a third strike, because they are all 30 YO and older in 2026. For these older Ace pitchers, they will want long contracts that extends into their late 30’s at their high salary of $30M+ per season.
Valdez and Suarez were the two free agent ace starters who I was hoping that the Giants would sign. Dylan Cease and Michael King were others I was considering as other options. All have conditions where the Giants could be super cautious.
All, that is, except Tatsuya Imai, who is 27 YO and won’t have a QO, though he will have a posting fee. He was just recently posted, so he can sign soon. The Athletic forecast an 8-year, $190M deal, which would cover up to his age 36 season and MLBTR forecasts a 6-year, $150M deal, which would cover up to his age 34 season, as 2026 is his age 28 season.
He appears to be a logical guy to sign to be the Top of Rotation guy, though with the risks of him having no MLB experience as an ace. Hopefully he’s another Yamamoto, but Yamamoto is a bit of a unicorn Japanese free agent.
In any case, the good news is that the proposed deals above only brings him to his mid-30’s and under $30M AAV, as well as get him in his prime years which most studies find to be late 20’s. And he had a great season in NPB last season, under 2 ERA per this CBS article. It also noted that he could be at least a #3 starter initially and perhaps better eventually.
Second SP
The second SP I expect the Giants to pursue an older pitcher who might still provide quality innings. Justin Verlander is possible, but after that great end of the season stretch, I expect him to sign with a team who spends spring training in Florida, and who has made the playoffs recently. But still, given the below, probably the one I am hoping for.
Others I am interested in are Shota Imanaga (who the Giants were looking at before Cubs signed him), Brandon Woodruff, Shota Imanaga, and Zac Gallen, but they all got QOed. Merrill Kelly is the only one who has no QO that I’m interested in, besides Verlander. I was also interested in Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty, but both picked up their player options.
Cody Ponce is a name I’m seeing, he was a former MLB who went to KBO and figured out some things. I guess I would be okay, but would prefer more recent MLB success. Max Scherzer is also available, and is a good friend of Vitello, but he hasn’t been consistently good lately. But he could be interesting as a swing man, going between starting and relieving. He could be great in the playoffs as a reliever, à la Timmy in 2012. Chris Bassitt might be interesting as well, TA sees 2 years, $46M (pricey) for his 37-38 YO seasons, but he has been good (mostly under 4 ERA) for a long while, so he could be okay if Verlander goes elsewhere.
Also, I have seen talk about getting Sonny Gray from the Cards, who might be looking to dump salary. I think he has a couple of seasons left on his contract in mid-20’s millions of dollars, which seems fair and he has been ace level good not that long ago.
MLB.com mentioned Zach Eflin, RHP, as a free agent who can outperform. Had a horrible 2025, but was an ace level pitcher in 2023-24. Depending on the contract, he could be a good get for the second SP.
The main thing the Giants are looking for in the second SP is semi-reliable depth in the rotation. They have three in Webb, Ray, Roupp, and nobody in the system who looks like we can rely on him all season. The ace level starter hopefully provides a full season, because Roupp has a long history of missing time each season. Between Roupp and the second SP, missed time can be handled by Birdsong, Teng, McDonald, Whisenhunt, all with question marks but all with good hope that they can figure out how to be MLB reliable starting pitchers.
Sign Rogers STAT!!!
Tyler Rogers is the must have. Because I don’t know who else is available who has been as good. Luckily submariners are not universally loved. Heck, the Giants waited too long to give him a chance, fortunately Zaidi gave him a chance here, instead of letting him go and figuring it out elsewhere.
For Rogers, I saw a projection of two years and mid-20’s millions. I would be okay with three years at the same AAV, even though that would be his 37 YO season, because submariners tend to be good for longer than other pitchers.
If we don’t get him, maybe try to get two closers, though the second one probably doesn’t sign unless it’s March and Spring Training is in full swing.
Closers
Devin Williams looks most interesting for the closer role. He has been a closer for a number of years, but had a very poor season in 2025. However, his FIP was fine, in line with what he had done before in recent seasons, he was just unlucky. TA projects him at $18M for one year, which is high but reasonable risk, and he’s only 31 YO in 2026 and he was previously a great closer for the Brewers, and at least pitched well in the playoffs for the Yankees. I would be okay with a multiple year contract, despite the Giants very poor history of giving out big contracts to closers (Nen, Benitez, Melancon).
Ryan Helsley is another reclamation project like Williams. He has been a closer for four seasons now, and will be 31 YO next season. He was actually good with the Cards but really got lit up with the Mets when traded. A mitigating factor is that he was a good closer with the Cards but then was asked to pitch set up for the Mets, and he didn’t take to the role change. TA projects one year at $16M.
Either of Williams or Helsley would be a great addition to be our closer, and maybe regain closer status as a free agent next season. They also might want a one year opt out clause on top of the above as a two year, in order for the Giants to sign him quickly, which could still work out, they could do an extension before he becomes a free agent if they like him enough.
I would not mind getting either Williams or Helsley as the closer for 2026, but Williams has a 2.45 career ERA (2.45 FIP), even with his bad 2025, whereas Helsley has a 2.96 career ERA (3.30 FIP). Also, Williams has been a good pitcher his whole MLB career, whereas Helsley struggled early then figured it out. Hence why I would be okay with multiple years for Williams.
Edwin Diaz is the clear best closer available (though perhaps by default, given the issues above), and projected by TA for 4 years, $84M. He will be 32 YO next season, however, and missed all of 2023. He has a 2.82 ERA (2.56 FIP), so I consider the above closers to be equivalent in skills, and slightly younger as well. Plus, he got QO’ed. He’s not much older but expects to get a lot more years on his contract plus cost draft picks.
Robert Suarez is another closer, who had a good season last season, another great one, but he’ll be 35 YO next season, so that’s the risk. TA projects 3 years at $54M, so that’s relatively risky to give to a 35 YO player.
But if those don’t work out, there’s Kenley Jensen, who is 38 YO but had a great season with the Angels last season: 2.59 ERA and 29 saves. TA projects 1 year, $10M. Since we are only aiming for the next 2-3 seasons as the peak, older closers like Jensen could work as well as the guys above, if we end up doing one year deals.
And if there are any still looking for a job when spring training starts, they might be okay as a set up man to pair with Rogers in the back.
Additional Thoughts
I’m hoping that Posey does as last year and strike fast, getting Rogers and a closer signed quickly. Then they can focus on finding at least two, maybe three starting pitchers (third one would compete with Roupp, perhaps, and build a dependable depth). Especially if they are targeting signing Imai, who just started his clock.
The bullpen could still also use additional arms to help. I noticed that former Giants Pierce Johnson has been a good reliever since leaving the Giants, and Atlanta just declined his option and that should make him a free agent. He had a 3.59 ERA over the past 3 seasons. I’m not sure why they declined his option, wasn’t that much.
Looking through the free agent list, some other names pop up. Emilio Pagan was a closer last season for the Reds, great ERA and 32 saves. He’s projected at one year $9.5M, and is 35 YO next season. Has a bit of a homerun tendency, but SF park is built to help him with that, maybe be more careful on the road, especially in homer heavy parks. And TA recommends he goes as set up guy in pitchers park, so he might still be around at spring training if he tries to be a closer again.
Raisel Iglesias is another interesting relief option. TA has him at two years, $24M, but he’ll be 36 YO. He is very up and down last season, but has been among the best of this free agent class, when looking at the cumulative stats since 2022.
The main thing is that the bullpen needs some quality depth, it was pretty depleted last season, and so adding another guy beyond the two above seems prudent, if the price and quality is right.
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