As reported by various sources, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander signed with the Giants for one year, $15M. There are a couple of good analyses on why he might be a good signing:
ogc thoughts
With this signing, the Giants rotation is basically full. Logan Webb is the ace of the staff, Robbie Ray is hopefully the #2 starter, with this being his second season after his TJS, which is when many pitchers revert back to their prior level of performance. Verlander slots in as #3, with Jordan Hicks #4 and Kyle Harrison #5. Birdsong, Black, and Whisenhunt will be in AAA, polishing up their repertoire for their next (or first) opportunity in the majors, and Winn and Beck will likely be long relief or middle relievers on thee 26 man roster, but ready for starts as necessary, as well.
I think Verlander will have a good season. As I commented on TA, Baseball Savant projected Verlander's xERA for 2024, based on the batted balls and other pitching results, to be 3.78, which is pretty good (in the NL in 2024, average SP ERA was 4.24), and not far from his 2023 season xERA of 3.63. Basically the good luck he had with balls in 2023 were regressed to the mean in 2024 with a ton of bad luck. And the two articles linked above show even more pitching related metrics on why Verlander appears capable of pitching well again in 2025, going deeper into stats I'm still learning about.
I was also impressed by his open acknowledgement of his mistake and what he has done to correct it, in a media interview he had recently (NBC Sports Bay Area). I know it'a s classic "best shape ever" trope, but at this point of his career, he's going for the goal of reaching 300 wins, which he's 38 wins away, and he would only be bullshitting himself and making himself look bad if he's not being realistic.
In any case, his pitching skills still look to be pretty good, and even if he declines to a 4-ish ERA, that's still above average, and his contract is basically paying for an average player, maybe slightly below average, if the $/WAR is above $7.5M (which some estimates are). Ideally, he should pitch #3 (Melvin might move him to #2 due to his career and status) because pitching further back in the rotation pits him against the other team's back of rotation pitchers too, boosting his opportunities to tally a pitching win, and be one closer to 300.
On top of that, Verlander must have a ton of tips and habits that has helped enable him to pitch well into his 40's. Hopefully, his new younger teammates will absorb them just be being around him and observing what he does to keep himself in shape and ready to pitch well. And take the opportunity to ask questions, as well.
In particular, I'm hoping he introduces yoga to the young Giants. When he was in his early 30's, he was already starting to regress physically, and his ERA rose significantly. But then his new supermodel girlfriend convinces him to try yoga, and then his stats reverted back to his superstar level performances and he continued that level until last season, when he worked through injuries. He seems to understand his body better than other players (and as to what is effective), so when he says he solved his injury problem from last season, I believe him (though there could be new injury problems this season, he is 42 YO after all).
All in all, I think Verlander adds a lot to the 2025 Giants. His contract is one year and only paying for a roughly average player, which he appears capable of delivering (Fangraphs has him at 1.4 fWAR). He has improved his health to avoid the injuries of last season. He is a leader in the clubhouse, as well as someone other players can learn from. Pitching in the back of the rotation should gain him (and the Giants) more wins, if he's pitching well again (like Zito in 2012, Giants won a ton of his starts).
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