Your 2018 Giants: Austin Jackson, Starting CF

Per many sources (here's CBS), the Giants have signed Austin Jackson to a two-year deal at $6M (which adds AAV of $3M, leaving the Giants maybe $1-2M under the CBT Penalty Threshold of $197M), with escalators that could push to $8.5M.

ogc thoughts

Wow, they did it, they were able to stay under the CBT Penalty Threshold!  And improved themselves defensively in CF, though per advanced metrics, he's been slightly to a lot poorer in CF defense, though still probably better than Span.

Austin Jackson fits with the players that the Giants have been rostering for a number of years now:  he has basically hit LHP and RHP pretty equally during this career.  His offensive boost in 2017 was because of a high .419 BABIP vs. LHP, but he was about normal vs. RHP, so I feel pretty good that he'll be around his average .708 OPS over the past four seasons, if not above.  He looks like he'll be a 1 WAR player in strong part-time play.

But he's not the improvement in defense that was being touted in management discussions, though the spin there is that compared to Span, he's a huge improvement.  Still, his defense per Fangraphs was a ghastly -19.5 UZR/150, though that was in limited play there in 2017.  His DRS has been just slightly below average over recent years, suggesting that while his range has dropped significantly in recent seasons, his experience has been making up for that, resulting in an almost average DRS over the past few seasons.

Some are listing him as leadoff, but given how lucky he was last season, I'm not sure if that is going to happen, plus he hasn't even really stolen any bases in recent seasons.  I think Bochy will be varying who leads off for the first month until someone takes hold.

With this move, this means that 4 of 5 OF positions are set with Pence, Jackson, McCutchen, Gorkys Hernandez, and Parker, Williamson, Slater battling for the last OF bench role.  The caveat here is that Parker is out of options while the others still have an option.  Also, should Duggar wins the starting CF role (I view this as unlikely unlike Duggar has a monster spring), pushing Jackson to the 4th OF position, it would be Gorkys vs. Parker, and I can see Parker winning because of his bat and his ability to play the three positions (albeit not for a long while in CF).  And I can also see the Giants DFAing Gorkys instead of Parker, if push comes to shove.

Tea Leaves

I see this as a pretty good move overall.  It is not for not much money, in fact, leaves some space for a low risk/high reward veteran minimum signing before Spring Training for either SP or RP.  He provides a good bat from the bench or spot starting, plus OK average-ish defense in CF (appears above average in corner OF), and can hold the starting spot in case anyone goes on the DL for a little while without crippling the offense or defense.

More importantly, he's good enough to win the starting CF position and not be a drag on the lineup in the 8th position (which is what his batting line of .708 would be average-ish fits), as well as a great improvement defensively over Span last season, especially per DRS.  But he's not good enough that if Duggar breaks out in Spring Training, the Giants would have no problem moving Jackson to the bench to be a good bat/glove alternative there, plus be a nice insurance in case any starting OF need a day off or is on the DL or not performing well enough.

And if Duggar shows enough but not enough, they could decide to platoon the two of them in CF for a while, until Duggar figures it all out.  But Duggar has hit both LHP and RHP pretty equally well, so I don't see a platoon happening, as some worry, and even if they do platoon, I don't view that as a permanent thing, Bochy is pretty good about giving the player chances to prove himself at whatever it is he has been deemed to not be good at, so that he can see himself and evaluate.  In any case, I expect them to start Duggar where ever he ends up.

All in all, good free agent signing.  It gives us a placeholder starting CF that won't hurt the lineup against either handed throwers (little platoon gap).  He can slide over to the bench easily when Duggar is ready and be a good bat off the bench as well as good enough defense at all three OF positions.  He's basically taking on the Blanco role, except that he can hit LHP and RHP equally well, as well as play well defensively in the OF in all three positions, ready to take the starting role if necessary.

40 Man Squeeze

The Giants roster was already at 40 after they added Engelb Vielma, good defensive middle infielder, again a couple of days ago (someone noted on Twitter that the Giants had nobody ready to take SS if Crawford ever went down, so I guess he's the guy, he's well liked for his defense, not so much for his offense), so they will need to remove somebody before they can add Jackson.

They probably can delay the signing while they figure that out, perhaps via a trade.  Parker could be the odd man out in the OF with this move, but I would think, as I noted above, that they would retain him because he's good defensively in the OF and can provide good to great power off the bench.   If any OF goes, it would be Gorkys, but I don't see that happening because then it would be Parker and Williamson on the bench, no good CF defense to come in should Bochy needs to PH for Jackson, though I suppose McCutchen could slide over temporarily, but Bochy generally do not like doing that to his regulars.

But if not them, then who?  I would not think Jones, but he did so poorly in the majors that the Giants might decide to waive him in hopes that he slides through.   And Osich has not been that good for two seasons now, so he's probably more likely, given that along with his long injury history would make teams pass on adding him to their 40-man.  But I would not think these two are going.

Neither Chase nor Pierce Johnson are on the team's MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospect list, nor Wrenzie's Top 30 list or DrB's Top 50 (Honorable Mentions), so perhaps they might go.  Pierce wasn't that great last season, his first where he mostly relieved, very wild with 27 walks in 54.1 IP, but 74 K's!   Plus 11 saves, so he has closer experience to boot.  Chase Johnson missed most of the 2017 season and didn't do well when he was in there, whereas the Giants just picked up Pierce, who was with the Cubs, late in the 2017 season, so I would think that the Giants would want to see what Johnson got before letting him go. 

Thus, Chase Johnson is the most likely guy to go.   I don't expect any other MLB signing given how close they are to the threshold, but I can see them giving out minor league deals, and giving guys opportunities to win IF or OF bench roles, as well as relief roles.  And probably at least one SP candidate. 

So they should not need to drop anyone for a while, unless somebody drops in salary demand enough for them to consider for a SP, RP, or even bench role, both IF or OF.  We only have Tomlinson and Sandoval for IF, no depth there at all other than the aforementioned Vielma.  And while we have a number of OF, they could decide they would rather see Slater and Williamson start in AAA than sit on the bench in the majors. 

But for the most part, all the roles on the team are pretty set, with just a handful of battles for positions here and there:  last short relief role, long relief, #4 and #5 starting rotation roles (which is mixed in with the long relief role), starting CF, the two OF bench roles. 

Go Giants!