Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Your 2016 Giants: Wild Card Playoff Game vs. Mets

On Wednesday, the Giants will face the Mets on the road in NY:  Bumgarner vs. Thor.


ogc thoughts

Mano-a-mano, obviously, anything can happen.  Starting pitchers can make magic happen at any time.  It should be a good battle between Syndergaard and Bumgarner.

Thor's Achilles' Heel

However,  Noah "Thor" Syndergaard, while a great pitcher, has some flaws that the Giants can take advantage of.  First off, LHH hit him a lot better than RHH:
  • LHH:   .250/.305/.398/.703, 3.46 K/BB
  • RHH:   .222/.255/.334/.589, 8.04 K/BB
Lefties in our lineup should be Span, Belt, Crawford, Panik, Gillaspie, and Pagan, with righties Posey and Pence, both of whom are OK vs. RHP.   In addition, while Noah has the fastest stuff in the majors, the Giants lineup is full of hitters who can hit 95+ MPH pitches for homers.  However, the Giants are only 57-53 against RHP (while 30-22 against LHP) so that negates that to some extent.

Plus, he's much better at home (2.68 ERA) than on the road (3.13 ERA).  However, the Giants against him in NY, in two games, 6.17 ERA:  4 runs in 6 IP in 2015, 4 runs in 5.2 IP in 2016.  He shut them out in SF though, in his last start against them.  Also, he has been not as good in the second half:  2.77 ERA first half, 3.01 ERA second half, while compiling a 3.32 ERA in the playoffs last year (3.50 ERA as a starter), but all three starts were DOM starts.

Bumgarner's A Man

Meanwhile, Bumgarner looks pretty good against the Mets.  First off, they are only 19-18 vs. LHP, 68-57 vs. RHP (hence why Bumgarner and not Cueto starting, just for this reason).  However, he's better at home than on the road, 2.74 ERA vs. 3.22 ERA on the road.

And one thing some have mentioned is that Bumgarner has not had a good ERA to end the season, as he had a 4.66 ERA over his last 9 starts (most only noted his poor September, but it goes back further than that).  However, if you look at the overall numbers, he looks like he's just been having bad luck with the long ball:  9 starts, 56.0 IP, .293 BABIP, great .683 OPS, only 11 walks vs. 62 strikeouts, but what killed him during that period was the number of HR he gave up, 8, which works out to 1.3 HR/9, very high for him.  So the long ball would be a sign that this Bumgarner is pitching and not the lumberjack who runs roughshod over the competition.

But the best factor of all is Bumgarner in 4 starts against the Mets in NY:  0.62 ERA, 29 IP (avg 7+ IP per start), 9.6 K/9 and great 3.44 K/BB.   And there is also his 0.91 ERA over his last 8 playoff appearances, 59.2 IP (over 7 IP even counting the 5 IP in relief), only 8 walks, 53 strikeouts, only 3 HR given up.

Giants Chances Look Good

I think the Giants look good for winning this game.  Bumgarner has pitched great against the Mets in NY all his career so far, as LHP does a number on the Mets strengths.   Thor's weakness is that LHH hit him a lot better than RHH do, and Posey and Pence are the only RHH, and both hit RHP pretty well still.  But when you get great pitchers going against each other, especially experienced guys - Thor had his hiccup in his first playoff start last season - you just about have to flip a coin as to who wins.  Still, Bumgarner has had the Mets number, as do many LHP, and LHH has Noah's number (relatively to RHH), which seems to tilt things in favor of the Orange & Black, though, unfortunately, our LHH has not done that well against Thor, both Posey and Pence have the best OPS against him.

Go Giants!



No comments:

Post a Comment

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (3) 2017 Giants (26) 2018 Draft (3) 2018 Giants (6) 2018 Season (1) 25 man roster (10) 25th man fallacy (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (9) 49ers (1) 6-man rotation (3) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (1) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) Albert Suarez (4) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Alonzo Powell (1) Amphetamine (2) analysis (20) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Suarez (2) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (2) Arbitration (17) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) Astros (2) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Slater (2) Award (4) BABIP (3) Bam Bam Meulens (1) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (2) Baseball Prospectus (3) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (3) baseball strategy (6) Baseball Study (17) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (9) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (1) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) Blog Philosophy (2) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (3) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (47) Brandon Crawford (24) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (45) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (31) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (3) Bullpen (31) Business Plan (13) Buster Posey (99) Byran Reynolds (1) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (2) CBT penalty (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (18) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (2) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (14) Christian Arroyo (6) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (9) closer by committee (3) Coaches (4) coaching changes (1) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (1) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) competitiveness (1) Connor Nurse (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (6) core competency (1) Cory Gearrin (2) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) Curt Young (1) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) D-backs (15) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) D.J. Snelten (1) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (3) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Darren Ford (1) Dave Righetti (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Bell (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (11) decline (1) Defense (8) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (2) depth (1) Derek Law (8) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) Dirty (1) DL (2) dodgers (13) Donald Snelten (1) Draft (7) Draft Analysis (15) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (2) draft philosophy (1) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (11) Draft Study (2) Draft Success (2) drafting (2) Dres (16) DRS (1) Dynasty (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) epic season (6) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (2) extension (7) fan outrage (1) fan rants (1) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) felony conviction (1) Fielding (4) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (3) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (7) Free agent possibilities (22) Free agent signing (14) Free agent signings (21) front office (2) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (1) Giants (8) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Defense (2) Giants Draft (11) Giants Drafts (2) Giants Farm System (32) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (64) Giants GM (5) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (28) Giants Offseason (21) Giants Pitching (3) Giants Strategy (36) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (1) Graphical Player (1) Gregor Blanco (15) Gregor Moscoso (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (9) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (11) Heliot Ramos (2) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (17) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Pence (23) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (4) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) injury (3) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (3) International Signings (5) interview (4) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (2) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jalen Miller (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (8) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (19) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (15) Joe Torre (1) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (21) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Johnson (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (5) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julio Urias (1) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (4) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (15) Larry Baer (2) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (3) Lineup position (1) links (1) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (1) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (8) Madison Bumgarner (172) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (4) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Gardner (1) Mark Melancon (1) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (160) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (1) Matt Moore (14) Matt Morris (2) Mechanics (4) Media (16) Media Bias (17) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (10) Mediots (5) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (1) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (3) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (7) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (1) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (1) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) NL Champions (2) NL West (23) NL West Division Title (17) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (1) non-tenders (2) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (3) offensive era (1) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opening Day (5) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (9) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (2) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (95) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Payroll (11) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pitch Count (3) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (20) Pitching Rotation (77) pitching staff (5) plate discipline (1) platoon players (1) Play Ball (1) player budget (2) player development (2) playoff (2) playoff hopes (35) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (5) Playoff Success (21) Playoffs (41) postmortem (2) PQS (97) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (4) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect study (1) Prospects (44) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) rant (1) raspberry (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) Rebuilding (4) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Reds (5) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (2) return (1) Reyes Moronta (1) RHP (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Rockies (1) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ron Wotus (1) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (3) rumors (9) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (6) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (4) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (1) secret sauce (1) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (2) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shohei Otani (1) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) splits (2) Spring Training (16) standings (1) starting lineup (18) starting pitching (79) Statcorner (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Steroids (6) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (7) Steven Duggar (1) strikeout rate (1) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (1) Team of the Decade (3) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (1) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (1) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (15) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (194) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) Top Draft Position (3) top prospect list (4) Trade (11) Trade Analysis (17) Trade Idea (9) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (4) tribute (1) turning point (1) Ty Blach (13) Tyler Beede (7) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler Rogers (1) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (1) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (3) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (1) World Series (26) World Series Champions (12) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Wheeler (9) ZiPS (1)