Your 2015 Giants: Rotation Judgement Day

Per the beat writers, the Giants brain trust are spending this off day to discuss the pitching rotation for the near future, when Peavy and Cain come off the DL (Peavy's 30-day rehab is over, so he should be back by weekend; Cain probably one or two rehab starts away, Sabean gave a good report on his last MiLB start).


ogc thoughts

The Giants have seven starting pitchers and, at the moment, only five starting rotation spots open.  Bumgarner obviously has one of those five spots, leaving Hudson, Vogelsong, Lincecum, and Heston being removed once Peavy and Cain return to the rotation, and all indications is that they will be starting, the question is really more, who will not be starting and what is the composition of the pitching staff (and thus position players as well, as there are currently 13 pitchers).

Bochy has noted (per beat reports) that they are considering a 6-man rotation, but with a number of off days coming in the next month or so, that is not ideal, as it would push the pitchers out of their normal routine of days off.  He also said that merit will be the main consideration in who will remain in the rotation.  He also noted that there were starters who have been dealing with stuff who could be moved out of the rotation, but he gave no names.

6-man Rotation Option

I would note that while a 6-man rotation could mess with rest, what they could do is a modified 6-man.  Kind of like how teams would have a 5-man rotation to start the season, but leave him out until sometime in May, a team could have a 6-man rotation running when there are no rest days within the rotation, but when a rest day pops up, the team could skip the 6th starter to keep the rest of the rotation on regular rest.  But, still, who would be that 6th man/long reliever?  This gets back to Vogelsong's role going into the season.

DL Options When Peavy Returns

Regarding starters who have been dealing with stuff, all the beats have been noting that Hudson could be that guy.  They noted that prior to the season, the Giants were already thinking of giving him some rest at some point, to save his strength for later (i.e. playoffs) in the season.  So he looks like an obvious starting pitcher to trade off on, as he has not been doing it all season, per PQS, he has struggled to dominate (which Lincecum was able to do until recently) but fortunately, he has also been good enough to avoid disasters (which Lincecum has not been able to do).

So right now, it looks like the most obvious move to do when Peavy returns this coming weekend is to DL Hudson.  Which works because Hudson's next start is on Saturday against the Rockies.   He clearly hasn't been himself all season long, he had always been a dominant pitcher until this season.

Cain Options

That leaves Cain's return, and who to remove for him, as the Giants say that he needs one or two more rehab starts.  With Hudson gone, that leaves Vogelsong, Lincecum, and Heston to pitch to keep their rotation spot.  Vogelsong has been Vogelstrong lately, probably our second best starter, so unless he craters in his next two starts, he's not going anywhere.  That leaves Lincecum vs. Heston.

And right now, there is no contest, Heston would win that battle.  Over their last 10 starts, Heston has a 40% DOM/30% DIS while Lincecum has 40% DOM/40% DIS.   No pitcher can hold a rotation spot giving up 40% DIS starts, heck, even 30% DIS is on the edge of removal itself, let alone 40% DIS.  For comparison, Vogelsong has a 70% DOM/30% DIS over his last 10 starts (70% DOM is elite level; 30% DIS, not so much, but is made up for by the high DOM).

But neither has been sterling good, so they probably have 1-2 starts (one for Lincecum, two maybe for Heston) before the decision has to be made.  If Heston goes, he probably is optioned to AAA, and use up one of his options for that.  If Lincecum goes, he probably takes over Vogelsong's long relief role that briefly existed at the start of the season.

However, that would necessitate the removal of a relief pitcher.   Based on merit, Casilla, Kontos, Lopez, Romo, Strickland should all keep spots.  Strickland and Broadway have options, but I don't see Strickland going back down at all.  Broadway would be the easy choice, but he has done OK so far and the team seems to like him.  Still, he's the easiest cut to get down to 13 pitchers when Cain returns, so that's probably going to happen.

However, Bochy noted that "pitcherS" were struggling with health.  While only Hudson has been openly named by the Beats regarding healthy and the DL, Bochy suggests that there are more.   Two who could be health impaired are the two relievers who have been underperforming this season:  Affeldt and Petit.  Affeldt more than Petit, but really hard to tell with reliever's SSS.   Still, one of those two could be DLed once Cain returns, and Lincecum would take that reliever's spot in the bullpen.

Machi Gone

Another pitcher on the DL is Jean Machi, and he should be eligible to come off pretty soon.  I think he has already started pitching in AAA already.   Unfortunately for him, I think he's gone.

If it wasn't for all the injuries and the odd scheduling this spring where the Giants had long stretches where they had no off days, Machi most probably would have been gone Opening Day.  The decision was down to him versus Kontos, and George won that battle in spring training easily.  And Kontos has simply been brilliant during the regular season, he has basically taken over Affeldt's role of handling set-man duties and facing both RHH and LHH.  He's not going anywhere.

And Strickland has done too well to get sent back too.  Broadway would be his alternative but could be already gone if Cain beats Machi to the majors.   If there is someone else needing a DL health break, then Machi could take that player's place, but right now, there is nobody named yet.  But at some point, unless there is a stream of injuries, Machi will be DFAed at some point, and most probably returned to AAA Sacramento.

Options When Pence Returns

Pence's return appears to be farther off - probably because the Giants want to maximize the chances that his tendinitis won't flair up again - but not that far off.  When he returns, do the Giants remove a pitcher, to get back to the normal 13 position players/12 pitchers roster structure, or remove a position player.   There are only two position players who would make sense:  either Arias or McGehee.

McGehee is the guy most Giants fans hate enough to DFA him immediately, without thinking.  But Arias would make the most sense in this scenario.  He hasn't hit for much of anything for the past three seasons.  His defense has never been all that good, except at 3B.

People point to McGehee defensive numbers as being poor, but a lot of that was early in his career, he has been just slightly below average since 2011 season.  That works out to roughly -1 DRS or RTOT over those years.   And he was OK at 1B or 2B, whereas Arias has been horrible defensively anywhere else other than 3B.  On top of that, McGehee, even in his worse seasons, hit better than Arias has in recent years.  And, should we make it that far, better DH choice than Arias.  McGehee should be the choice to back up 1B, 2B, 3B over Arias.

So, who backs up SS when Crawford needs a rest?  Shift Duffy over to play SS, while McGehee can handle 3B.   Still, that's a pretty slim bench, carrying just Susac, Arias/McGehee, Blanco, and Maxwell.

More likely, however, a pitcher will go.  Assuming the likely scenario of Hudson DL when Peavy returns and Broadway AAA when Cain returns, with Lincecum long relief, maybe 6th starter, I have to think one of those pitcher health issues that Bochy noted will take care of opening up a 25-man roster space for Pence.

Affeldt seems the most obvious choice, as he has not been himself all season, and has both horrible K/9 and K/BB.  Petit has also not done as well, but at least his K/BB is still pretty good, as his K/9 has been marginally good while his BB/9 has been pretty good.  And if you look at Affeldt's 2013 season, it looks a lot like his 2015 season, only worse, considering age and wear & tear.  Hopefully rest and treatment will help Affeldt recover enough to contribute to the playoffs, like he had previously, he has a 22 game shutout streak, covering 23.1 IP, .366 OPS, only 10% of inherited runners scoring.  And over his 26 game career for the Giants in the playoffs, 0.69 ERA, .350 OPS, only 6% of inherited runners scoring.

Overall Rosterbation

So, to me, it looks like the Giants will DL Hudson when Peavy returns, then option Broadway back to AAA when Cain returns, which then pushes Lincecum out to long-relief role, and really, more of a super-utility reliever, who could pitch a long middle game, but also come in and pitch in set-up as well.   But first, Lincecum needs to figure out why his mechanics have been so off recently, as he was one of our better pitchers early on.

Then when Pence returns, probably DL one of Affledt or Petit would go on the DL, with the off-chance they just dump Arias, as they still have Adrianza in the minors.  Ehire's been doing OK there, whereas Arias hasn't done much of anything in the majors, at least Adrianza would bring some speed and good defense.