Your 2012 Giants are 71-57: Houston and Chicago Got Problems

I'm not going to go in-depth on the next two series because both teams have got a lot of problems winning games (Houston is 6-24 in their last 30 games - and 4-16 at home - Chicago 9-21 in last 30 games- though 11-9 at home in their last 20 games there).  Basically, the Giants ideally need to go 4-2 in the six games, because they will be headed into tough series against NL West teams for the rest of the season.

NL West Gauntlet

That Giants NL West gaunlet starts with a home stretch against Arizona and LA, then Colorado and Arizona on the road.  Then there is a relative pause with series against Colorado and SD at home, followed by Arizona at home, SD on the road (remember, they have been tougher lately) and ending with LA on the road.  I expect the lead to change hands multiple times, leading to a series for all the NL West Divisional marbles between LA and SF, barring any amazing comeback by the D-backs.  So the more distance the Giants can get in the next week, the less likely there will be frequent lead changes.

LA, meanwhile, after some 2-3 weeks of NL West action, head into a stretch of playing a bunch of non-NL West opponents:  St. Louis at home, then Nationals and Reds on the road.  These are three teams fighting for their playoff lives too, so that will be a tough 10 game stretch there in less than 3 weeks.   They will be very lucky to get out of that stretch 5-5, needing to break even with St. Louis at home then winning one of the road series against Nats or Reds.  None of that is easy and it should be a dog fight that could tire out their bullpen and team spirit.

The Giants need to hold onto their lead at least to then, at which point LA will have to run a gaunlet of tough teams while the Giants get to face Colorado and SD.  And it is not like LA has it easy during the next few weeks either, as they face Arizona 5 times, Colorado 3 times in Colorado, and SF 3 times in SF. 

For the most part, LA really has it tough to the end of the season, as after those tough non-NL West opponents, they get 3 in SD (remember, SD has been playing well the past two months and thus should be tough at home), before closing with 3 against Colorado and 3 against SF at home.  Only Colorado in LA looks to be an easy series for the D-gers.

Arizona is pretty far away right now, at 7.0 games back, but could still make a run at it because they have 9 games left with the Giants.  However, 6 of those games are in SF, so they will have to win series twice on enemy territory just to make up 2 of those games.  They ideally need to sweep at least one of those series, if not two, to bring them even with the Giants.  So their road to the division title is also fraught with difficulties and challenges, and basically they really need to win series against the Giants to have any real hope of winning the division title.

With 34 games left for the Giants, all they have to do is go .500 and Arizona then needs to go 24-10 in order to beat them out.  They have not done that in any month yet (best was 16-10 in June; the rest were at or below .500), so basically they need to gel over the next 34 games and sprint to the finish, playing above what they had done previously.  And if the Giants hold serve in their home series, Arizona needs to win even more games.  The odds do not favor Arizona at the moment, particulary if the Giants can pick up some wins against the Astros and Cubs (AZ gets to face the Reds at home and LA in LA). 

Not as onerous for LA, but they need to be 19-15 themselves if the Giants simply splits the games left.  They did that in April and May, plus is doing it so far in August (13-10), so that is certainly within their capabilities, particularly with the addition of A-Gon despite the loss of Billingsley.  In addition, they are above .500 with all three tough non-NL West teams:  Cincinnati 2-1, St.. Louis 4-3, Washington 3-0. 

So right now things are too close to call, though clearly LA has the tougher road to travel than the Giants.  Still, how many times have we seen in MLB history that a team squanders their lead and schedule advantage as players fail to perform to expectations?  Too many to count.  And long-term Giants fans have seen collapses that lend each of us a butterfly-ish stomach.

Giants Are In Good Position for Stretch Run

Still, I feel pretty good about our chances.  Most importantly, we lead and our starting pitchers are mostly on target.  Lincecum is the only one that has not been performing to our established standards, but Bochy has been pulling him early before the damage gets too bad.  Hopefully that can keep him being effective enough for us to win his starts.  Meanwhile, both Cain and Bumgarner are their usual gamer selves, and Vogelsong hopefully is over his two-game hiccup and returning to gamer shape.  Zito is Zito, but that's plenty good out of the back of the rotation.

The bullpen has been pretty good as a group since the ASB, compiling a sterling 3.39 ERA over that period and only Hensley has a K/BB ratio that isn't good, basically.  Maybe Sabean can pull off a deal to get another RH reliever, but I'm satisfied with what we got.  Some are unhappy about not having a closer, but the way Bochy has used them fits perfectly with what he did before, except shifted to 8/9, so I'm OK with that, though I wouldn't mind picking up a closer type in the next few days.

The lineup looks pretty good too.  Since the Melk gone sour, the Giants have played half their games at home and road games in SD and LA, yet they still averaged 4.7 runs per game during that period.  Of course, it helped greatly that Pagan was white hot and supported by good hitting by Scutaro and sufficient hitting by Sandoval and Posey.  Still, much of the lineup was contributing - while not white hot, they were all producing, even Blanco, Belt, and Crawford, except for Pence.

Pence and Pablo:  Please Produce

Pence still isn't hitting great but the seeds are there:  over the past 12 games, Pence has hit .302/.373/.372/.745, which while not great for a middle order bat, at least he's now moving along the line, as Bochy likes to say, and the guys behind him - Arias, Blanco, Belt - has been doing some nice hitting themselves.  And that roughly has been since Melky was suspended, so at least he's stepping up some.

Most of the lineup are not performing out of their head during that period, except for Arias and Pagan, but most has been performing to expectations, roughly, so as long as they all can continue performing to their abilities, with a couple of them being hot, the offense can be consistently good enough to win a lot of games with this pitching.  Posey and Pagan has kept the team aloft on their shoulders post-ASG, and we need Pence to start delivering more often.  He appears ready and if he can deliver, it would be a perfect time to starting contributing.  Hopefully being in Houston will help get him going as well.

Likewise, Pablo needs to step up as well.  He's probably still suffering a bit from his hamstring, but he really needs to step up in terms of offensive production, maybe even more so than Pence because Pablo is batting behind the leadoff guys and ahead of Posey.  He has actually hit OK since, just suffering a two game lull initially, then 0-for-8 in his last two games, but in between he hit .303/.342/.394/.736, which was good enough to keep the offensive machine greased and running.  He needs to keep up his OBP and kick his ISO up to his usual production, and that would help greatly towards winning while Lincecum struggles to find consistency.  Maybe if Pence starts hitting, Pablo will start getting more hittable pitches hitting in front of Posey and Pence.

Go Giants!