The Mystery of Mijares

The Giants were awarded Jose Mijares, handy and productive LOOGY, formerly of the KC Royals (Schulman).  Hank posited that this was related to a move to a closer by committee situation, and he was spot on, as the Giants reported that with Santiago Casilla's blister problem affecting his performance previously, they need to use him more sparingly, in order not to cause the blister to return, so they are going to start using Jeremy Affeldt more often in the closer role.

The curious part of this transaction is that the Royals just handed him over to the Giants, no prospects asked for, and further, none of the teams ahead of the Giants (first all of AL, then NL teams with worse records, which is most of the NL) laid any claim on him first.  So the question is:  what's wrong with Mijares that none of these 20 teams didn't lay claim on him?


ogc Thoughts

I don't have time to go through each team one by one, but to me, this was just a perfect storm situation.  First off, KC was going to go cheap on LOOGY's and Mijares is projected to make $2M next year, in his second arbitration, so they were already planning on not offering him arbitration in the off-season.  Why not just put him through waivers now and give him to the team that makes a waiver claim, saving them maybe $300K?

However, KC was very active before the deadline trying to trade Mijares, and any team interested in Mijares already had their conversation with KC regarding how much it would take and told KC, "Thanks, but no thanks."  As a result, some of the teams that might have wanted Mijares (especially had they known that KC was offering him basically for free, as $300K is pocket change for most teams not in KC), decided not to make a waiver claim, thinking that if there was a trade possibility before the deadline it would have been done already, so this soon afterward, nobody will be upping their offer for Mijares and KC will be ready to deal once every team turns down the waiver claim.

Clearly, nobody who had a chance before the Giants to make a claim thought 1) that any team would make a waiver claim and 2) that KC would give him up for no prospects.  Else, one would think that some team, particularly LA or AZ, would have made a claim.  Presumably, the Giants and Royals had some conversations on trading for Mijares before the deadline and the Royals, upon learning that it was the Giants who won the waiver claim, could have decided that they would rather have $300K than any prospects that the Giants might give them.  Or maybe decided that, regardless of the claiming team, they were going to accept the waiver claim and give up the player to save the money.

In addition, Mijares had some question marks that probably scared off a few teams:  he's only 6' tall but weighs 230 officially, but some suspect more.  Also, while he's having a great season this year, last season was pretty bad, where he walked a lot while not striking out that many.  He's never struck out so many K/9 before either, so there must be worry that he won't be able to continue this going forward, particularly since he recently had a bad stretch of relief appearances (12.27 ERA in last 7 appearances).

Also, it might just really be the team, not the player.   Some teams are happy with their bullpen and don't want to mess up the chemistry already there.  I heard on KNBR that a pitcher went directly to Bochy right after this was announced and asked if he was losing his job (player was not identified).  Losing a friend could cause some tensions.  Other teams are happy with their LOOGY's that they got, and don't want to add another one.  Many teams have just the two and are happy with that.  Of course, other teams are just playing out the string and don't feel the need to trade prospects for a LOOGY with a questionable recent past or body issues.

Affeldt the Closer Too

So apparently that brought the Giants into position to get another cheap grab off the waiver wire.  I have to think that they didn't expect this to happen, but was happy with the outcome.  They had already decided that to save Casilla for at least part-time closing duties, they had to go with a closer by committee situation, and by picking up Mijares, who has been pretty good against left-handed hitters in his career, that would free Affeldt for closer duties.  I assume they were ready to up what they were willing to offer before, assuming they had talked already.

This, of course, also meant that the Giants didn't think that Runzler was ready and/or able to handle those duties for them right now.  He's in AAA right now.  So they made the waiver claim on Jose.

Closers Are Not Dime A Dozen

This, I believe, makes clear why the Giants decided to keep Affeldt, in spite of his $5M team option, rather than let him go and hope to retain him via free agency.  And I've been saying that it did make sense since the signings of Lopez and Affeldt happened in the off-season, particularly at MCC, where I was told off.  Clearly, the Giants were very unoptimistic about Wilson's physical problems healing with rest during the off-season and smartly kept Affeldt around, just in case they needed him to be a closer for them.

People still think that a team can just pick up some cheap relievers and cobble together a bullpen and closer, but we should have learned from the aftermath of losing Robb Nen that replacing the closer and building a bullpen on the cheap is not an easy or likely successful task.  Keeping Affeldt is in line with what I've been saying I like about Sabean's strategy the past few years, of risk mitigation by having players ready to step up when the guy we were relying on (or expecting to perform) failed for whatever reason, whether injury or lack of performance.  That was money well spent, much like buying insurance, which many Giants fans just did not see during the off-season, but now becoming clearer.

Plus, what people don't remember is that when Affeldt was signed by the Giants, some of the experts noted that Affeldt, while not a closer, had abilities that you want to see as a closer.  Someone at Fangraphs called him closer-worthy performer for a set-up guy price.  And his great pitching, for the most part, for us, showed us that possibility, I believe.

Oddly enough, even though Affeldt has done well this season up to now, people still couldn't see why he was kept, again telling me off about how the Giants should have picked up some cheap castoff somewhere in free agency.  They just don't understand the necessity of having players you know and feel that you can rely on, to do important roles, like closer.  They still seem to believe in Beane's dictum that closer's are dime a dozen and that anybody can be a closer.  But again, as we sadly learned (but some did not absorb), not anybody can be a closer, that is why the Giants ended up going from closer to closer after Nen retired, until they developed Wilson.  And, in any case, there are not always good choices out there in free agency.

Now and Later

I think that this move is also a bit of Now and Later.  Now, it frees Bochy to save Affeldt for closing duties.  Plus, now he can use Lopez earlier in the game when there is a more highly leveraged situation, knowing that he had Mijares and Affeldt still available later (remember, Casilla will still be closing many games).

Furthermore, later, the Giants are looking to add on both Melky Cabrera and Hunter Pence to the long-term payroll this off-season.  Even with big contracts coming off - Rowand, Huff, Franchez, Pagan - there will be guys getting raises (like Bumgarner and Sandoval) and presumably the Giants will be trying to sign Posey to a long-term deal as well.  Which will make it problematic to retain Affeldt's $5M contract going forward.  In comes Mijares, likely to cost the Giants around $2M next season, assuming he passes this audition and the Giants decide to keep him.

Closer by Committee - Been There, Done That

Some people think that closer by committee can't work, but Giants fans with a longer view of team history will recall our grand closer by committee (only it wasn't called that back then) situation where we had Gary Lavelle as our lefty closer and Randy Moffitt (brother of Billy Jean King) as our righty closer.   They were a great tandem for us, so it is not an impossible situation.

Plus, this takes away the awkward situation that happens when the manager brings in another pitcher for the closer.  This allows Bochy to bring in Affledt when Casilla is struggling, and vice-versa, Casilla when Affeldt is struggling.  And if both are, he could bring in whoever is left, Hensley has experience closing, Romo would be the closer if not for his delicate elbow (due to slider abuse),  and Kontos has been so good that some fans wouldn't mind him being the closer.

Furthermore, it gives Bochy the chance to see how different players perform in the situation.  If Affeldt shines in his new role, the Giants could decide to sign him up to be our new closer going forward, and shift the money from Wilson to Affeldt.   Kontos, with a good showing, would move into more of a set-up role permanently, or could put himself in the driver's seat to taking over, if Casilla continues to falter as the righty closer, as he has performed very well for us as a reliever this season.

This was a good move by the Giants, made all the better by the Royals just handing him over for nothing.  I like Affeldt taking over the lefty closer role, and love how it frees Bochy up to use whoever he feels got it right now.  Mijares seems like a good addition, he has had prior success, and any ups and downs he has had I would attribute both to reliever small sampling and youthful mistakes that a vet is unlikely to repeat.  And he could be a good addition for future seasons as well.