Lincecum and Giants exchange arbitration figures: $13M and $8M

As reported by various sources - Mercury, Chronicle - the Giants and Lincecum submitted their arbitration figures. The Giants offered $8M and Lincecum's camp asked for $13M.

Giants Thoughts

The $8M is very low compared to the figures that has been bandied about as possibilities (somebody seriously suggested $23M), but people have to remember that this number is also partly a negotiation ploy. Once the numbers are submitted, then the mid-way point becomes the area where the negotiation starts. Still, I find it to be a bit low. Ryan Howard had the highest first year away with $10M, so $9M would have been more reasonable I think, given the general impression that hitters are worth more because they play every day.

The $13M also seems low to observers as well. It is speculated on the Merc that this relatively low figure could be influenced by the possibility that Lincecum's agent believes that the Giants would not be willing to give them what they want, resulting in no settlement before the meeting, and thus they have to present a figure that they can win in arbitration.

Historically, Sabean has tried to avoid arbitration. They have already done that with Medders and Jonathan Sanchez, who is reported to have received a $2.1M contract for 2010. And Brian Wilson looks like a done deal, he asked for $4.875M while the Giants offered $4M, so they will probably agree on a deal around $4.5M, maybe a smidge less if they take the halfway point.

Lincecum, however, is another matter. With the wide difference of $5M, it is not a situation where you simply split the middle and agree on a contract for $10.5M. Clearly, both sides feel that they are about right with their figures, and with such a chasm between the two figures, it might have to go into arbitration. Particularly since the $13M is not that onerous a figure, the Giants might be OK with that as the losing amount, viewing the arbitrator's selection as a win-win scenario. Lincecum's side might view it the same too, as with inflation and two Cy Youngs versus the Ryan Howard comparision case, $8M seems too low, and thus their $13M seems like a lock, as it is high but not that high.

The Giants have traditionally avoided arbitration because they don't want to get into any negative attacks plus settling beforehand gives you control whereas putting your fate in the arbitrator's hands has been something most teams should have avoided as they lost badly.

However, they don't really have to be negative, they can just quote what I wrote above and say that he's great, yes, unprecedented, yes, but pitchers are traditionally not worth as much as a hitter on the free agency market, and Ryan Howard is the comparison case at $10M, as he was a super-two and won both the Rookie of the Year award and MVP award plus was 5th in MVP that season, and in addition the market has dropped in price this off-season, so they had 10% sliced off for a starting pitcher, and 10% sliced off for the poor market this off-season.

I think it behooves the Lincecum camp to sign an extension much like the King Felix Hernandez deal for 5 years and $78M. The only problem is that he would probably want more than Felix got since he has won two Cy Young awards, making the final contract more like 5 years at $90-100M. I don't think the Giants want to take on that much risk in a contract (and I certainly wouldn't want them to), particularly in light of Lincecum's slight falter at the end of the season plus there were talks that his velocity went down some late in the season.

However, they might be willing to go for a 4 year contract plus an option year for the 5th year that vests based on IP by Lincecum. That probably would be in the $70M range, which would be more palatable a risk, though still a huge risk.

It will be interesting what happens, but I expect the Giants to try to sign him in the $11-12M range with no extension.