Monday, September 07, 2009

Your 2009 Giants are 75-62: Paddling the Padres (updated)

As disappointing as it was to come that close to sweeping the Brewers, still, it was a good trip, we came out even 3-3. And, really, we could have lost either of the other two games if not for circumstances, so winning 2 of 3 was all we really could hope for.


And now we are home and hopefully can make back some of those games we are now behind the D-Rox by winning more there than they can before we meet them again next week. We will probably have to do it against the 'Dres because we face the D-gers this weekend, who will be tough to beat and even tougher to sweep, though with their rotation problems, who know, maybe we can put one to them this weekend.


Unfortunately, Yahoo, like many brainiac tech firms, "new and improved" their team webpage and took away the matchups from that page, which is what led me to my error with the second game of Milwaukee. (Do they have any fanatic baseball fan's input into that page? Obviously not). So I'll cover just the first game here.


Then the odd thing is that they present the matchups on the boxscore webpage, so then I'll cover the rest of the matchups afterward. Just from the top looking down, the 'Dres are playing tougher as the spoilers now. They are 9-3 in their last 12. While part of that was sweeping the hapless Nats, they also won series from better teams, Atlanta, Florida, and the D-gers. So they will be tough to play against and beat up on. A sweep is not really in the cards, they are not faltering down the end, they are playing great spoilers.


Game 1: Brad Penny vs. Clayton Richards


Penny did well against the Giants when pitching in SF, but admittedly some of that was against poorer lineups. Still, he did great his last start, so I expect another DOM start from him (see PQS). Richard is not that bad a pitcher, about a middle of rotation guy already and he's only 25, soon to be 26. He has pitched well in SD but not so well on the road, 5.06 ERA with both ChiSox and 'Dres (they got him in the mid-season trade for Peavy). He could be good in the future but right now Penny should be able to beat him, plus the Giants just hit better at home than on the road.

ADDENDUM BELOW: UPDATED FOR MATCHUPS

Game 2: Tim Lincecum vs. Kevin Correia

I liked Correia when he was with the Giants. If he didn't get injured with an oblique injury, he might have pitched the way I think he could and be a nice tradeable chip. He's doing OK with the 'Dres now, 4.25 ERA, but that's a function of his homepark (3.68 ERA at home, 5.14 ERA on road). Still, that's not too bad for a back of a rotation pitcher, plus he's has thrown 163.2 IP, on track for about 190 IP. He could get a nice 2-3 year contract for $12-20M if he free agents with stats like that and consistent starting and eatting of innings. However, he's never pitched well in SF, didn't pitch well against us his one start against us this season, and he's facing Lincecum, who came off a very nice start in his last start.

On the other hand, he's put together a nice streak over his past 8 starts: 3 DOM starts, 1 DIS start. And 2 DOM starts out of his last 3 road starts, one in Milwaukee and one in Cincinati. And he was just a strikeout away from a third DOM start. So that is one factor that might favor him starting.

Still, the Giants hit well at home, he's never pitched well in SF nor in his one start against us in SF, and, again, Lincecum is the opposing starter, speaks well for the Giants. We should be winning this one, and with the Giants leading 9-2 in the bottom of the 8th, should win this series.
Game 3: Barry Zito vs. Wade LeBlanc

Nothing much good to say about LPH LeBlanc in his MLB play so far, he has been pretty bad. For Zito, he has been pretty good for the most part, and even when he wasn't on, which he wasn't in his last game, he still kept the lid on scoring, which is all you can ask for, and gave up only those 2 very early runs for his 4 IP. Plus the Giants have played well against LHP, 21-15 (with today's win). Looks like the Giants should win.

'Dres Series

Despite all the positiveness for the Giants in each game (including winning the first game), the probability is still that the Giants only win 2 of 3 in this series, though the possibility for a sweep is strong against the 'Dres despite their nice winning streak, because of the lack of quality in their starters relative to our starters in the remaining two games. With the season's end coming up fast, time is running out, they need to man up again and sweep the 'Dres in their season of woe, take advantage of their woe while the getting is good, unlike the other teams, LA, Florida, Atlanta, who are playing for the playoffs.

Because the D-Rox are playing the D-backs, are playing hot, and got two games on us already and we can't fall further back than that before we meet them next week. Two is as far back as we can get, because then if we win the series next week 2-1, then we are only one game back, with our weak part of the Giants remaining schedule coming up and the D-Rox hard part of their remaining schedule coming up. As I noted previously, that would bode well for us winning a spot in the playoffs.

Because we face the D-gers, who have been the team to beat in the NL West this season, and despite their problems and playing on the road, they will still be tough to win a series against at home this weekend. So we need to do the job against the 'Dres beforehand by sweeping them. Plus, the D-gers have fallen to only 3.5 games ahead of the D-Rox, and if they don't do well against us this coming weekend, the Giants could put them into a three way race for the NL West title, along with the D-Rox. After leading by so much and for so long this season, plus troubles in their pitching rotation, they have to be looking over their backs now, and thus some might start choking.

Still, good position to be in. We are at home where we have the best home record and won most series played here. We face a team in transition, another rebuilding team that just traded away their Lincecum and thus searching for a new rotation leader and a few years behind us in re-building. We can't worry about what the D-Rox do, we can only control what we do each game, and thus we need to basically win every game, the heat is on, as the old song goes. Hopefully the Giants are up to the task: they have been all season, for the most part, though.

Go Giants!

5 comments:

  1. Hope you're right. We really need a bunch of wins right now.

    But I worry that Penny has got to return to the mean. He looked on his last legs as a pitcher just a month ago.

    --Barton

    ReplyDelete
  2. Would you venture to say that he was as lost as Zito once when he changed leagues? And that once he become comfortable with his surroundings, he was able to pitch to his proven level of performance?

    If it wasn't the Phillies at their home in the middle of a playoff chase, I would have written off the performance of Penny, but that was a major "in your face" performance that he did in Philly. I was sold.

    Plus, as I noted in my post on acquiring Penny, he actually had a number of good PQS games for Boston, only bad luck balls going for hits instead of hits plagued him. We are getting the regression to the mean now with him pitching for us.

    We don't need a bunch, we just need 3 more wins than the Rockies over the rest of the season. :^) (plus more than the guys behind us...)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Check MLB.com/Sfgiants.com for matchups

    ReplyDelete
  4. While my guitar gently weeps...

    Ugh, that went about as bad as things can get for the Giants. If the D-Rox win today - and the Reds have just been bending over and taking it - we are 4 back.

    And in the end, we needed somebody to step up. Uribe had been doing it lately, but he couldn't do it forever. Sandoval was his steady self. Velez surprised me and had another burst of goodness, I was very impressed and hopefull for next season. However, most of the other hitters - Molina, Winn, Rowand, Garko, Ishikawa, Schierholtz - have been very quiet the past two weeks when we needed them to bust out. We needed some gamers.

    The long and winding road of this season is nearing an end. This weekend could be our final deathnell if the D-gers take it to us. We are basically at the point where we need to win every game now. If this playoff chase is to continue to the end, we will have to probably sweep either the D-gers or the D-Rox plus win the other series, and ideally sweep both teams.

    Not impossible - hey, we swept the D-Rox in the last series - but not looking good or likely right now.

    But it's been a good, hard fought season where the team has gone where most fans didn't think they would go. As a rebuilding team, they have far exceeded most expectations. Hopefully they still have a little more in the tank.

    Go Giants!

    ReplyDelete
  5. And muchas gracias, I will check out MLB for matchups. I should have figured they might have that.

    ReplyDelete

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