Sunday, July 23, 2006

Trade Analysis: Hillenbrand/Chulk for Accardo

{Addendum added 2:46PM}
Like most Giants fans, I choked on my Wheaties when I heard about this trade. Accardo? Our closer for the future? Our fireballing overachieving non-drafted free agent former SS, now golden chosen closer of the future?

After thinking about it more deeply, I realized that I overreacted the way fans do when you think everything you have is gold and everything the other team has is trash. This is similar to the Reds/Nats trade that was lambasted everywhere: trading a position player for a reliever? Madness! Also, this trade did not deplete our bullpen greatly while vastly improving 1B and the bench at the same time.

Why I Hate the Trade

There are a number of reasons why I don't like the trade. Accardo's only 23, he has closer potential, high heat, and we control him for probably another 5 years. Meanwhile, we get a 1B who walks as frequently as Feliz, don't hit 20 HR per season regularly, let alone the 30 HR standard that most Giants fans clamor for in their next 1B (the anti-Snow), plus to top it off, he's a free agent AND DFAed. Plus the reliever we got was so good that the 54-43 Blue Jays, batting to win the AL East division, barely saw any reason to use him much the past 3 months.

Why I LIke the Trade

Sabean did a masterful job of addition without making another area much weaker. In fact, he might have improved things in three areas while trading away Accardo's potential. Here's how I see all this.

First, as much as I like Accardo, he hasn't really done it the past two months or so. ERA of 7.94 in June, 5.63 in July, his stats line is a putrid 7.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .285 BAA the past two months, versus 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .204 BAA his first two months. Although his FIP is a low 2.75 plus his BABIP overly high at .328 (.300 is the overall average but that could be his average, too short career stats so far), a result of high K/9, low BB/9, high K/BB, and low HR/9, research from Ron Shandler hows that second half performance is key for a player to have success going forward and Accardo failed on two fronts. First , 2006 is worse than 2005, second, June/July is worse than April/May, showing that the league figured him out after his first go around and he was unable to adjust so far, and terribly at that so far. So while this may be a case of small sampling for a short reliever is at work here, it is not a good sign either, and the best we can say is that bad luck has been plaguing him horribly this year.

Second, as bad as Chulk's numbers look now, about as bad as Accardo's, he has really had two different seasons like Accardo, only in reverse, i.e. the better way. It was bad up front, but he has been good the last two months. In April/May, 7.61 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 0.425 BAA vs. June/July, 1.98 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 0.261 BAA. Looking deeper in his numbers, he is suffering from bad luck in two ways in 2006. One is that batters are hitting him at abnormally high rate this season (.335 BABIP) than his past two seasons (about .280 BABIP). The other is that his HR/FB is way up, at 14.8%, when the mean everyone should fall to is 10%, which is also approximately his average the previous two seasons. That's the result of small samples and a really, really bad April that he hasn't been able to dig out of because he's basically haven't been used much the past two months, about once a week. And his peripherals are nice overall, his K/9 is 6.8 (want over 6.0), his BB/9 is 1.9 (want under 3.0), his K/BB is 3.6 (want over 2.0), only his HR/9 is bad at 1.5 but as I noted, his HR/FB is way up, falling back to the mean would drop that to a tolerable HR/9 rate of 1.0 approximately (which is about his career average). In addition, he as two years of proven good experience as a reliever under his belt plus improved his second go-around in the league, achieving better stats in 2005 versus 2004. So he could potentially strengthen the bullpen for 2006 over Accardo, who had not had good results the past two months, and we still control Chulk for the next three years plus he's only 27 so it should be his prime performance years as well.

Third, Hillenbrand is a great addition the lineup. Sure, he's not 30 HR hitter but we don't need one for our lineup to produce more, we mainly need an uptick over the Niekro, Sweeney, Ishikawa trio that we had been getting at 1B. People look at his career stats but that's skewed by his poorer early seasons. He has basically been a .300 hitter during his career, with an OBP in the .340's, which is actually good, and a SLG in the .460's, which is also actually good. And while he doesn't pound the homers, his ISO is in the .160's, which is good as well. While he doesn't walk much, his high average makes up for that plus his K-rate is very good. All this from perusing his Fan Graphs charts.

In addition, he has had a sort of breakout pair of years, at age 30-31, in terms of power, his doubles are finally translating into homers, he has basically averaged 35 AB per homer previously, but this season he has boosted it up to 25 AB per homer, moving from a high teen homer average to a mid-20's homer average. That is partly a glitch because his HR/FB is high this year, but he has also boosted his FB% rate the past two seasons, so the extra power is not an illusion. Plus as a RHH, he should not lose much of this power in AT&T May Field, though his career numbers there is low on the power: .333/.403/.400/.803. In any case, during his career, his ISO has been around the league average and this year it is above average, very close to the good range.

He really improves our hitting in the 6th and 7th slot as well. Unfortunately, ESPN's stats don't provide 6th place hitting at the moment (though it can be selected), I have 2005's stats and Hillenbrand's .822 of this year would have ranked 6th last season, whereas the Giants were next to last in 2005, in 15th. With Feliz getting a lot of ABs there this year, the Giants position is probably improved anyway, but adding Hillenbrand moves Feliz to 7th, where Niekro was mainly hitting, and probably improves that a lot. Feliz has an OPS of .781, which would have ranked 5th in 2005, whereas the Giants were 13th last season, and we know that Feliz is way outhitting Niekro.

He also improves the bench at the same time. Sweeney was suppose to be our major LH bat off the bench this season but he has been starting a lot because of Niekro's various injuries and lack of performance. That plus Alou's various injuries took Finley and Sweeney off the bench, leaving Vizcaino as our major LH bat off the bench, which obviously is a big drop off from Sweeney. Now Sweeney will be on the bench as intended.

In addition, Shea Hillenbrand is a very consistent hitter. .296/.338/.466/.804 vs. LHP while .287/.325/.446/.771 vs. RHP, one of the banes of the Giants lineup over the past few years have been hitters who look good overall but cannot hit pitchers of the same hand, players like Grissom and Snow, among various others. And since he's played in Boston and Arizona as homes, his home number is skewed, so I look at his road numbers and he has .291/.334/.455/.789 as his career numbers, which is good (but not great). His monthly numbers are pretty consistent too. The main knock is that his numbers go down a lot after the All-Star break, .299/.339/.468/.807 pre, .276/.313/.427/.740 post. With Sweeney giving him rest, probably against the better RHP of the league, that should help his numbers while with the Giants.

This also helps with the need to rest the older players frequently, like Bonds and Alou. There is a drop when either is out, no knock against Finley, but there is. And it was bad when the offense then had to contend with Niekro's lack of performance as well in the lineup. Adding Hillenbrand is a major addition because before it would be, say, Winn, Vizquel, Bonds/Alou, Durham and maybe Feliz (because of his streakiness) and now Hillenbrand would be a consistent 5th source of offense, and perhaps 6th if Feliz is going OK.

In addition, Sabean said in an interview after the trade that he plans on trying to re-sign Hillenbrand for 2007. I assume that he is insurance in case Feliz does not resign. He will pursue both and if he gets at least one, then 3B is covered, and if he happen to get both, the both is covered, it is not like Ishikawa or anyone else, is ready to take 1B yet for the Giants in 2007, and either Feliz or Hillenbrand could be traded away during or after 2007 if Ishikawa or anyone else is ready to take 1B (or even 3B, though I cannot imagine whom).

In addition, Sabean noted in his interview that he is not necessarily done. This now allows Sabean to focus on pitching help after helping the offense. As much as people think that we might have overpaid for Hillenbrand, who was DFAed, both Sabean and Toronto noted that there were 5-7 teams asking for him. He could play 1B, 3B, and DH, so that makes sense that there were multiple teams asking for him, a consistent .800 OPS hitter is, while not the hottest thing to desire, a very nice part to add when you are not getting production from a part of the lineup. Chulk was the lever that got the deal done, he is a serviceable RHP reliever to help replace Accardo in the bullpen, I assume Sanchez moves up in importance as well, to setup, which he already had been lately. I assume this means that Munter and no one else is ready to move up from the minors as RHP. Sabean also noted that the pressure is not off but allows him to be creative when market loosens up, which is probably around the last week to 72 hours before the deadline, when teams give up hope, opening the possibility for a blockbuster move.

Addendum: I also like the trade for what we didn't lose. I have liked Brian Wilson more than Accardo for relief in the long run. Wilson has about as much heat as Accardo plus he has a starting pitcher's repertoise, plus he hasn't even used his curve ball yet that he was considered plus on when he was drafted. Sanchez too plus I'm still hoping he gets put back into starting in the next two years. And, for me, Valdez is more the closer of the future than Accardo, Accardo was just too built up in fans mind, to me. Plus Valdez is considered in a prospect book as a potential closer but Accardo was not, his potential was as setup man.

In addition, the old TINSTAAPP holds as well for Accardo, he has not really proven anything yet in the majors, other than he still have a lot to learn but has a plus fastball. People are too worried about another Nathan trade situation happening, when it is two different situation, Nathan actually had a superb year whereas Accardo is clearly still working out his problems. And as much as we think he might, we don't know whether he will ever reach his closer potential that we all saw, he might end up a bust, as he is severely overachieving as a non-drafted free agent.

Addendum 2: I don't think I made enough emphasis but Hillenbrand is the type of hitter we need for the 5/6/7 spot of the lineup, someone who hits for higher average to get a decent OBP plus some power, because these spots are for guys who drive in runs, and a walk at the bottom of the lineup just don't cut it for driving in guys. That is, for an average .340 OBP, I prefer there to be more hits than walks to get to .340 for a 5/6/7 hitter that Hillenbrand will probably get to bat in while with the Giants this season. And as I noted, his ISO is not that bad, it is not great and it is not quite good, but it is still better than average. And that much more than we could say we had been getting from the 1B spot for over a year now, on a regular basis. My main worry is about his late season fade, but hopefully Sweeney taking key ABs versus tough RHP will help cut that down for this season.

4 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis, Martin (and not just because I agree with you). I think we saw the benefit the very first time he was in the line up - hitting 6th, pushing Feliz to 7th. That is just so much better a line up. And, as you point out, it really strenghtens the bench. And when Sweeney plays against the tough RH starters, we have Hillenbrand on the bench. You didn't say, but I expect that his familiarity with the NL West will help raise his Ba and overall offensive performance.
    I also think you under value Chulk.
    Finally, I think Sabean's plan is likely to try to resign Feliz and Hillenbrand - their asking prices being reasonable, of course. That would give him a pretty solid foundation for next year, as he would have in place:
    1b, ss, 3b, cf.
    He has a shot at having these positions filled: C (Matheny, Alfonso, Green), LF (Bonds), 2b (Durham would not be a total shock; Frandsen, tho I don't think he is the answer). Even RF, w/ Linden and the other minor leaguers might make do until July 07. I think next year has suddenly become a lot less scary.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Not arguing, but wanted to know where I was undervaluing Chulk, I would like to hear what you have to say on that. It's not like I really know him as a pitcher, this was my interpretation (as always) from looking at his stats plus reading my baseball books.

    Speaking of which, my BP 2006 book says that "Chulk's ERA actually underrates him, as he squashed more than his fair share of rallies by holding hitters to .230/.289/.352 with runners on base. Nevertheless, Chulk isn't that different from any number of former starters who survive in the bullpen for a little while despite mediocre peripherals and stuff." Basically, his low K/9 rate from 2005 was freaking out analysts, but he seems to have answered that with a return to his prior K/9 rate, so 2005 appears to be a fluke year, for now.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I do believe that Sabean scours the retirement communities to find his players these days.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I thought Accardo for Hillenbrand was a fair trade, but to get Chulk, too, who is very close to being equal to Accardo NOW, makes the trade very lopsided in our favor. In otherwords, because of Chulk, we gain without loss, as Chulk comes very close to replacing Accardo, even if not in the exact same role.
    BTW, I don't really see Accardo as a future closer. Possible yes. I saw him pitch in the ninth earlier this year and really struggle, especially with the final out. Definitely not ready (also evidenced by a nearly 5 era). He is kind of an F Rod, a pretty good 8th inning guy, which I think they should have made him, but not closer material for a few years and very iffy.

    ReplyDelete

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (3) 2017 Giants (27) 2018 Draft (8) 2018 Giants (50) 2018 Season (8) 2019 Draft (1) 2019 Giants (27) 2019 season (2) 2020 Decade (1) 2020 Giants (9) 20201 Draft (1) 2021 Giants (3) 2022 Giants (2) 2023 Giants (14) 2023 season (1) 2024 Giants (8) 25 man roster (11) 25th man fallacy (1) 26 man roster (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (11) 49ers (1) 5-day rotation (1) 51/49 decisions (1) 6-man rotation (5) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) Abiatal Avelino (1) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (2) ace starter (4) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) aggression (1) Albert Suarez (5) Alen Hanson (3) Alex Cobb (1) Alex Dickerson (2) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) Alexander Canario (2) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Alonzo Powell (1) Amphetamine (3) analysis (24) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Baiiley (1) Andrew Bailey (1) Andrew McCutchen (2) Andrew Suarez (5) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Andy Suarez (9) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (2) Arbitration (19) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) Astros (3) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Jackson (2) Austin Slater (5) Award (4) BABIP (3) Bam Bam Meulens (1) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (3) Baseball Prospectus (6) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (4) baseball strategy (9) Baseball Study (18) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (9) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (2) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Big Picture (3) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) biography (1) Blake Riverra (1) Blake Snell (1) blog news (3) Blog Philosophy (3) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (4) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (50) Brandon Crawford (25) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brewers (1) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bannister (3) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (50) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (36) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (8) Bullpen (33) Business Plan (23) Buster Posey (102) Byran Reynolds (2) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carson Whisenhunt (1) Carter Jurica (1) Casey Kelly (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (3) CBT penalty (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) cheating (1) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (19) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (30) Chris Strattton (1) Christian Arroyo (7) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (9) closer by committee (3) Coaches (4) coaching changes (1) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (3) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) Competitive Cycles (2) competitiveness (2) Conner Menez (1) Connor Joe (3) Connor Nurse (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (7) Coordinator (1) core competency (1) Core Rotation (1) Cory Gearrin (5) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) Cubs (1) Curt Young (1) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) cyber-relief (1) D-backs (16) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) D.J. Snelten (3) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (3) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Dany Jimenez (1) Darren Ford (1) Dave Righetti (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Bell (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (12) decline (1) Defense (11) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (3) depth (1) Dereck Rodriquez (7) Derek Holland (18) Derek Law (11) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) direction (1) Dirty (1) DL (3) dodgers (15) Donald Snelten (1) Donovan Solano (1) Draft (11) Draft Analysis (27) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (3) draft philosophy (2) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (12) Draft Study (9) Draft Success (4) drafting (5) Dres (16) Drew Pomeranz (1) DRS (1) Dynasty (3) Earl Weaver (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) end of an era (1) epic season (6) era (1) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (3) Evan Longoria (3) Evan Longoriia (1) extension (7) fan outrage (10) fan rants (2) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (2) Farhan Zaidi (35) feature reliever (1) felony conviction (1) Fielding (5) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (3) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (8) free agent misses (1) Free agent possibilities (28) Free agent signing (22) Free agent signings (21) front office (3) Gabe Kapler (1) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Garrett Williams (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (2) Giants (10) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Classic Rotation (1) Giants Defense (4) Giants Draft (15) Giants Drafts (8) Giants Farm System (34) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (66) Giants GM (12) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants Leadership (1) Giants manager (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (34) Giants Offseason (24) Giants Pitching (10) Giants President of Baseball Operations (3) Giants Strategy (44) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good players (4) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (2) Graphical Player (1) great players (4) Gregor Blanco (18) Gregor Moscoso (1) Gregory Santos (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (10) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) Hayden Birdsong (1) healthy (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (12) Heliot Ramos (11) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) hiring (2) hiring process (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (19) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Bishop (4) Hunter Pence (25) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (9) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) Infield (1) injury (7) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (5) International Signings (5) interview (5) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J.P. Martinez (1) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (2) Jacob Junis (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jake Wong (1) Jalen Miller (1) Jandel Gustave (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (10) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) JD Davis (1) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (28) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (18) Joe Torre (1) Joey Bart (6) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (31) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Hicks (1) Jordan Johnson (1) Jorge Soler (1) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (9) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julian Fernandez (7) Julio Urias (1) Jung Hoo Lee (2) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Kelby Tomlinson (5) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Gausman (3) Kevin Pillar (2) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (16) Kyle Harrison (5) laid off (1) Larry Baer (3) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (4) Lineup position (1) links (1) Logan Webb (3) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (2) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Luis Matos (2) Luis Toribio (1) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (12) Madison Bumgarner (185) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (5) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Luciano (3) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Gardner (1) Mark Melancon (4) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason Black (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (160) Matt Chapman (1) Matt Daniels (3) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (2) Matt Moore (15) Matt Morris (2) Mauricio Dubon (2) Mechanics (4) Media (17) Media Bias (17) media hypocrisy (1) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (11) Mediots (6) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) Melvin Adon (1) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Conforto (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Reed (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (2) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) Mike Yazstremski (2) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (4) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (8) Modern Portfolio Theory (1) Modus Operandi (2) MPT (1) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (2) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) NewPQS (8) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (2) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) Nick Vincent (1) NL Champions (2) NL West (29) NL West Division Title (20) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (2) non-tenders (3) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) NRI (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (4) offensive era (1) ogcPQS (6) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opener (1) openers (1) Opening Day (6) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (11) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (3) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (97) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Patrick Bailey (2) Payroll (11) PECOTA (1) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) personal (2) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Putila (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pierce Johnson (2) Pitch Count (3) pitch framing (1) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) pitcher’s health (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (27) pitching analysis (4) pitching department (1) pitching development (4) Pitching Rotation (90) pitching staff (6) pitching strategy (2) plate discipline (1) platoon players (2) Play Ball (1) player acquisition (1) player budget (2) player development (7) playoff (2) playoff analysis (2) playoff hopes (37) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (6) Playoff Success (27) Playoff Win Effective (3) Playoff Win Efficient (2) Playoffs (44) postmortem (2) PQS (109) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (3) prospect analysis (7) prospect future (1) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect promotion (1) prospect study (2) Prospects (46) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) rant (1) raspberry (1) rationalization (1) Ray Durham (5) re-sign (2) realist (1) Rebuilding (5) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Red Sox (1) Reds (5) rehab (1) reliever (3) relievers (1) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (3) return (1) Reyes Moronta (3) RHP (1) Ricardo Genoves (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Roberto Gomez (1) Rockies (2) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ron Wotus (1) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Ronnie Ray (1) rookie debut (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) Rotation by Committee (1) Rotation Chaos (1) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (5) rumors (9) run differential (1) run prevention (1) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Russell Carleton (1) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (7) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (5) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) Sam Dyson (7) Sam Long (1) Sam Selman (1) Sam Wolff (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandro Fabian (2) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) scenarios (1) Scott Boras (1) Scott Harris (2) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (2) Sean Hjelle (5) season review (1) secret sauce (2) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (6) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shohei Ohtani (3) Shohei Otani (2) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) spin rate (1) splits (2) Sports Illustrated (1) Spring Training (16) stabilized stats (1) standings (1) starting CF (1) starting lineup (19) starting pitching (96) starting rotation (4) Statcorner (1) State of the Giants (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Stephen Vogt (1) Steroids (7) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (8) Steven Duggar (7) strikeout rate (2) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) tactics (1) talent evaluation (4) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (2) Team of the 2020's (1) Team of the Decade (4) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (2) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (2) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (19) The Hey Zaidi Series (4) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (195) TINSTAAPP (1) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) Tony Watson (4) Top 100 Prospects (1) Top 14 Roster (1) Top Draft Position (4) top Giants prospects (5) top player list (1) top prospect list (6) Trade (12) Trade Analysis (22) Trade Idea (9) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (5) Trevor Gott (1) tribute (1) Tristan Beck (2) turning point (1) Ty Blach (23) Tyler Austin (1) Tyler Beede (10) Tyler Cyr (1) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler McDonald (1) Tyler Rogers (2) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waiver Roulette (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (4) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Bednar (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (7) Will Wilson (3) Williams Jerez (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (3) World Series (28) World Series Champions (13) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) xwOBA (1) Yankees (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Cozart (2) Zack Wheeler (9) Zaidi MO (2) Zaidi Rotation (3) ZiPS (1) Zito Role (2)