Giants Prospects in Mayo's Top 50

Jonathan Mayo, the MLB's Minors expert, released his Top 50 prospect list for 2010 recently. I like to see what he is thinking because he was the one who turned me on to Tim Lincecum in the draft and got me to believe that he would fall to us in the draft (but nobody's perfect, he thought we would pick some strong-armed big body, Daniel Bard I think; but if I recall right, he nailed the first 8-10 picks in the 2009 draft though). He has Buster Posey as the 4th prospect and Madison Bumgarner as the 10th (which is a drop for MadBum, I think, from last year, but Posey rose from the high teens).

In the article I linked to, he did a team comparison showing how many of the Top 50 prospects that each team had. The Giants were tied with a bunch of teams with 2 of the Top 50 prospects. Texas, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City led with 4 prospects each.

But I was bothered by that comparison because we have 2 of the Top 10 prospects on the list, and only Texas beat us to being the first team to achieve that, and they are the only two teams to achieve that. So I tried a weighted scoring methodology so that a team that has a higher ranked prospect would get more credit for it, instead of just a simple count because that credits a team for a 50th prospect as much as a team with the 1st prospect. I gave the #1 prospect, Jason Heyward (wow, not Stephan Strasburg, though he was 2nd) 50 points, then one less point (49) for the 2nd, and so on until the 50th got 1 point.

Using that scoring system, here is the ranking by team:

1. Tampa Bay 141
2. Texas 131
3. San Francisco 88
4. Florida 74
5. Toronto 69
6. Atlanta 67
7. Milwaukee 64
8. Washington 60
9. Kansas City 55
10. Boston 53

So, using the article's comparison, the Giants come in tied for 5th with 12 other teams and thus look like just like any other team(plus with 50 slots and 30 teams, there is an average of 1.67 prospects per team). However, using my methodology, which weighs each prospect, the Giants come in a clear third place, far behind the leaders Tampa Bay and Texas but as far ahead of the 4th place team, Florida, as Florida is from the 8th place team Washington.

I think the Giants should still be on the higher side in 2011, close to 10th at least. Posey is probably going to be in the minors long enough that he should not lose his rookie status in 2010 and thus be eligible for ROY in 2011, now that Molina is around. Thus the Giants should have him ranked highly again, and he could move up a spot or two.

I'm not sure about Bumgarner, as it is still unclear to me whether the Giants are serious about starting him or looking for a 5th starter. Obviously, if he's still in the minors, he'll probably stay there a good portion of the season, particularly to avoid Super-2 status, and would still be a rookie for 2011. But obviously, if he starts in the majors, 2010 would be his rookie season and he would not be in the ranking next year.

And, at the moment, there is nobody who clearly will make the Top 50 in 2011 to take Bumgarner's place. Angel Villalona has the best set of skills and performance for making the list, in that he had the cred previously and could regain that cred with a good season in 2011. However, with no visa to even enter the U.S. because of his legal difficulties at home due to the shooting death that involved him, he'll be lucky to play in 2011, let alone bring things up a notch. Thomas Neal had a great 2009 but will have to raise things a notch again in AA in 2010 to have any hope of making the Top 50. Brandon Crawford could improve his chances by hitting in AA like he did in San Jose in 2009, but he too would need to raise things a notch. Roger Kieschnick could also put his name into play by greatly reducing his strikeouts and doing very well in AA, but like the others, unlikely to do enough to reach the Top 50.

The best chance would be if Zach Wheeler busts out of the gates like Bumgarner did in his full pro season. Wheeler could reach the Top prospect ranks if he can pitch like Bumgarner did. But not every young pitcher is going to do well in the minors, no matter how good they looked as an amateur, particularly high school pitchers. Hopefully your scouts did their job, but until he pitches for real, all we have is a hope that his skills will translate into the pro ranks.

I expect Wheeler to start out in Augusta, much like Bumgarner, both because of his strong skill set as well as its closeness to his hometown, which should help with his adjustment to the pro ranks, lessening homesickness, as well as having family and friends being able to make his games.

So it does not look probable that the Giants will keep their top spot, but there are some possibilities, mainly Bumgarner spending the year in the minors and Wheeler dominating in A-ball, that suggest that the Giants could stay up there, and perhaps could go up a spot or two, depending on how many of the other teams' prospects graduate in 2010.

Jenkins: Why Not Play Posey Elsewhere?

Chronicle columnist Bruce Jenkins asks this question in a recent column, "Who Cares If Posey Can't Catch?" He says what if the offense is struggling and Posey is killing AAA pitching, should he be brought up and play other positions. My answer: any Giants fan should care.

Giants Thoughts

Catcher is the position at which Posey provides significant value. If he were like Matt Weithers, then, yeah, he could be very valuable at almost any position with the way he hits (assuming he can field decently at other positions), including 1B. Posey, however, is only valuable at up the middle positions, he would be average at best for the corner positions and below average at 1B, unless he can field that position as well as the greats do. And catcher is where he would be especially valuable, unlike CF, 2B, and even SS, where offense is available to a great degree.

Looking long-term, while catcher can be a debilitating position, I think Posey is posed to have a career similar to Craig Biggio and it would fit in with our current prospects/personnel. Posey can be our catcher during his pre-free agency years for the most part, then shift to either CF or 2B as needed, though most probably CF as we have Burriss and Noonan coming up who might hold the spot for a number of years if they develop, whereas we don't have any great prospects coming up in CF, only average ones, maybe Mike McBryde in the near-term or Wendell Fairley eventually. And SS is always a position in need, though hopefully Brandon Crawford could be the long-term answer there.

At that point, hopefully one of our other catching prospects might be ready to take over. Jackson Williams is suppose to be a very good defensive catcher, maybe by that point, our offense can afford to have a poor hitter like him catching (or he could develop enough offense, catchers often take until their late 20's to develop their hitting) and be the defensive stalwart that he was projected to be. We also have other catchers, like Hector Sanchez, who might develop by then as well. Then at some point Posey could possibly be moved to another position, depending on the Giants need and extend his career as a valuable player.

This is the lack of patience that Henry Schulman noted the other day that I blogged on in my last post, that is fueled in part by the impatient press corps who follows the Giants. Both the Chronicle and Mercury have been lambasting the Giants the past few years for their alleged lack of development and long-term thinking when, as I've been showing those same few years, that the Giants have a plan and that plan revolves around great pitching and great fielding overall.

Yet these same people, some of which whole-heartedly advocated trading away Lincecum for Alex Rios (now that would have been the worse trade of all trades in Giants history, and we have doozies just in the SF era, of great players traded away for almost nothing: Orlando Cepeda, Gaylord Perry, Dave Kingman, George Foster, Bobby Bonds, Willie McCovey, Bill Madlock, Jack Clark) think that they know how best to get the Giants moving forward.

Sure, if you want to maximize your play in 2010, playing Posey at other positions at mid-season when the team is struggling would probably be a great idea for the short term. But who are you going to get to catch for you in 2011 and beyond? He's not going to improve if he's playing other positions and he might start to let up mentally on this catching if you get him thinking he might play other positions.

Now, if Jenkins is talking only about September and the playoffs, then this would be a brilliant idea. Most NL teams are hamstrung when they get into the playoffs and particularly in the World Series, as there will always be players struggling or injured. Posey could step in at that point for a month or so, and be the utility starter (giving needed rest to the regulars) while also being the backup catcher which would be his main job.

Then if the Giants would be so lucky to make the World Series, he could be a worthy DH for the team, whereas most NL teams have been and will be hamstrung with a bench player thrusted into the DH spot (remember our DH's in 2002? Shinjo, Dunston, Feliz, players who had no right to be DHing). Now THAT would be a great advantage to have, adding a Buster Posey to the lineup during the World Series.

2010 Giants Non-Roster Invitees: 22 this season

This was blogged on by Henry Schulman last week, been meaning to get to it. Here is the list of names he reported on:

• Denny Bautista (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract))
• Santiago Casilla (RHP; former A's reliever, signed to minor league contract recently)
• Rafael Cova (RHP)
• Steven Edlefsen (RHP; BA rated him as best slider in 2008 annual)
• Eric Hacker (RHP)
• Osiris Matos (RHP; we dropped him from 40-man so apparently nobody claimed him and returned to us)
• Tony Pena Jr. (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract)
• Felix Romero (RHP)
• Dan Turpen (RHP)
• Craig Whitaker (RHP; top pick, been working his way up long time)
• Craig Clark (LHP)
• Clayton Tanner (LHP; local kid, been doing well, rising up, good luck!)
• Steve Holm (C; was dropped from 40-man last season when Whiteside brought up)
• Jonny Monell (C)
• Hector Sanchez (C; one of our better prospects)
• Jackson Williams (C; one of our sandwich draft picks, good/great skills, bad bat so far)
• Ehire Adrianza (SS; reported as major league ready SS skills, needs to develop hitting, still young)
• Brandon Crawford (SS; noted as SS of the future by Giants brass this off-season)
• Nick Noonan (2B/SS; hype has died down but this past season was first year he showed hitting discipline that scouts raved about when drafted, I'm very encouraged by his good improvement late in the season, but he needs to continue showing that)
• Wendell Fairley (CF; has been up and down as a prospect, but it's a good sign that they are bringing him up to spring training this year)
• Roger Kieschnick (RF; had very good first full pro season, still strikes out too much but shows all the skills he was advertised to have, very encouraging first year)
• Thomas Neal (LF, not RF as Schulman noted; breakout season, nice recovery from injury from a couple of years back, could be in majors soon if he continues hitting like that but in AA, remniscent of Pablo's rise)

Giants Thoughts

I totally and vehemently disagree with Henry Schulman's assertion that the Giants need to "develop three or four Pablo Sandovals and stick them on the field at the same time." It would obviously help, and I, of course, wouldn't mind that as that would give us one of the great teams in the history of the majors, but that is not critical to the team's success over the next few seasons. Perhaps this is why fans are so upset over the lineup, because reporters lead them to think that having so many great hitters (and Sandoval is a great hitter) in the lineup is a requirement to be successful every season in making the playoffs.

Heck, we didn't even have three or four Sandovals the year we went to the World Series (Bonds and Kent only, nobody else even broke 800 OPS).

Here is how special Sandoval was in 2009: only 6 hitters in the NL had a OPS as high as Sandoval's .943, only 4 hitters in the AL, for a total of 10 hitters in the majors, out of roughly 400 hitters. There are not that many players like Sandoval in the majors. So, no, we don't need to develop three or four Pablo Sandovals, that would be setting the bar waaay too high.

As I noted in my business plan series (linked to the side), when you have a great pitching staff, the offense does not have to be that good to win 90 games. With our defense (pitching and fielding) last season, we only needed to score 4.30 runs per game to reach 90 wins. That would have placed us comfortably 11th in the NL in 2009 (average runs scored was 4.43), behind the Washington Nationals which was 10th with 4.38 runs scored. With an average offense, we would have won 92 games.

Using Bill James projections plus our projected lineup, the Giants should score over 4.5 runs per game. To win 92 games averaging 4.5 runs scored, our defense would need a runs allowed average of 3.83, just slightly above last year's 3.77.

But James's projections tend to be on the high side, from what I recall. CHONE won for "best" projection for their 2008 projections, if I remember right. Using CHONE's projections, the Giants should score over 4.4 runs per game. If they did that, the Giants defense would have to allow 3.73 runs per game, or slightly better than last year's figure.

And I think that it is safe to assume something similar to last year's. Lincecum should be about the same. Any regression by Cain and/or Zito should be offset by Sanchez pitching well for a season (4.24 ERA overall but 5.54 ERA as starter before no-hitter and 3.46 ERA starting from no-hitter, and even without the no-hitter, he had a 3.83 ERA afterward, plus maturation and confidence and development for 2010, when he'll be 27 YO) and improvements in the #5 starter, whether Bumgarner or whoever, as our other starters (other then the four we have for 2010) had a 4.62 ERA collectively in 2009. Defensively, we take a big hit with Huff at 1B, but DeRosa and Sanchez are pretty good in the OF and 2B, respectively, which should balance things there. Plus Renteria's arm should be better with the surgery and Sandoval should be better with one more season of experience.

But I do agree vociferously with most of the rest of Schulman's post. "The Giants have taken the first step with some good position-playing drafts." I also agree with the Giants front office assertion that Baseball America was ill-informed when it criticized their system before, particularly in 2007 and 2008 when Sandoval was doing well but BA didn't think enough of him to put him in the Giants Top 30 prospects list.

I also whole heartedly agree that "Fans need some patience." Fans have not been patient. This is a long term process, and worrying that this might be the only year we can capitalize on Lincecum et al is fatalistic and shows lack of confidence, which I suppose is only fitting because these fans show no confidence in Sabean despite the great job he has done with the pitching staff. I, for one, am glad the Giants are taking the long view with regards to their strategy and not signing a Holliday (who I think is being overpaid in any case).

As I've been preaching the past few years, the Giants have been re-building and re-builds are never pretty nor cleanly done. It is never done with just home-grown players, there will always be free agents signed to fill in the gaps that the farm system could not fill. It will not be perfect, there will be mistakes, but you have to look at the big picture and see what team is coming out of the process.

What is coming out is a team dominated by a great pitching rotation, supported by a great bullpen, and has a developing offense, with Sandoval now in there (we have at least 5 more seasons of him) and Posey in the wings, plus a lot of good prospects percolating upward or already trying to make a name for themselves (Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen).

People are worried that the Giants won't be able to re-sign their young pitchers beyond our arbitration control because of the large contracts already committed (Zito and Rowand) but here I am putting my trust into Neukom's statement that he will get the money should we ever need it for a player. People have been assuming that applies only to free agents but I would have to think that it would apply to our own players as well, and Lincecum and Cain will be the first recipients of that largess, I believe.

Lastly, I would clarify one statement Schulman noted, that developing position players have not been the Giants forte. That's true if you are looking at the total number of position players developed. But that's not the whole story.

The whole story is that the Giants have been focusing their first round picks mainly on pitchers for the most part since Sabean took over as GM, and particularly after Dick Tidrow took over as head of player personnel. Those picks have the greatest likelihood of becoming a major league player, and even then, when you are winning, those picks become a good starting player around 10% of the time, which is pretty low odds. And they just get lower and lower, already around 1% by only the 4th round.

Picks like Posey (5th) and Wheeler (6th) become good players around 45% of the time, but by the 10th pick (Lincecum and Bumgarner) it has fallen to around 20% success rate for finding good starting players, and by the 21-30th picks, the ones that the playoff teams get, it is around 10%, as noted above.

That is a pretty low success rate, so while it is correct to say that developing position players have not been the Giants forte, there is a huge mitigating factor in that they had not been trying to be successful in developing position players, really, until 2008 when they drafted Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford.

And, if Sandoval continues to hit like he did in 2009, what would you rather have: one Pablo Sandoval or a handful of Mark Teahen's, Bobby Crosby's, Dan Johnson's, Mike Jacob's? I would rather get a great player once in a while who you can't pick up easily via free agency, than a bunch of OK starters who you can pick up easily via free agency.

And Sabean has picked up great players over the years. Kent in 1997. Schmidt in 2001. Cain in 2002. Sandoval in 2003. Lincecum in 2006. And it is looking like Bumgarner in 2007 and Posey in 2008. Plus if Sanchez and Wilson continue doing well, I would add them to the list as well.

Oh, and I totally agree with Schulman that "they will be fun to watch."