The Merc today announced Matthews as a top priority for the Giants and could be a Bochy influenced interest since he has played twice for Bochy, once as rookie and once just before joining the Rangers and finally doing well. He would play CF and push Winn to a corner OF spot (RF if Bonds return, LF perhaps if not and Linden in RF).
Da Data on Da Playa
I took the liberty to strip out his home numbers - Rangers home is homer haven normally - particularly for left-handed hitters and he's a switch-hitter. Hmmm, oddly enough, his batting line is pretty much the same, home or road, while with the Rangers, though HR-rate much better at home, they landed for more doubles on the road, resulting in SLG about the same, either way:
Home: .280/.352/.464/.816; 25 AB/HR
Road: .289/.349/.471/.820; 34 AB/HR
That's approximately the difference between a 20 HR season and a 25 HR season.
He'll be 32 years old for next season, so assuming this would be a 3 years contract of some sort (either 2+option or 3), this would cover his 32, 33, 34 years. Which, of course, are the years most players are prone to diving to their retirement.
Not a New Direction: Back to the Future Redux
My most immediate impression (smell, really) right now of Gary Matthews is of a Michael Tucker-lite redux with a dash of Randy Winn. Player who has enough talent to start playing significant time at age 25, but never good enough to win a starting position, though Gary basically did last season, playing 147 games with 620 AB and 678 PA. About average in OBP, not that great with the power but OK, will get you around 15-20 HR annually, plus good defense, can play all OF positions, but, while speedy, is pretty bad stealing bases. And now, at age 31, had his career year and probably wants a big contract and a starting position.
I can see the Sabean spin on him now: he is much younger (32 vs. Moises 40), good hitter with some pop and speed, great defense in CF, leadoff hitter, veteran leadership.
See the Fit, But I won't Acquit
From a personnel standpoint, I can see the fit, particularly if we get Bonds back. Bonds in LF, Matthews in CF, Winn in RF, with Linden as the 4th OF, sucking up starts in LF (when Bonds rest, 40-60 games) and RF (when Matthews or Winn rest, 30-60 games) plus starter when the inevitable injury comes along (don't know Matthews history, if games missed were due to being a bench player or being injured frequently; I presume the former).
But after hitting .313/.371/.495/.866 with 19 HR and 102 runs and 79 RBI, he is not going to be looking for a Michael Tucker-ish 2 year/$3-4M contract, he's going to want 3-4 years at $5-7M per season, and that I would have a problem with, no way we pay him for one great season, that's another Adrian Beltre-type of insanity signing, or actually closer to a Robby Thompson-ish, particularly with him being 32 for next season and headed for the decline most players experience in that age range, after a career year at a late point in the career.
I like the son of a Giant angle, but only at the right price and I think he's going to be asking for too much. I would rather pass on him, but he is the proto-typical Sabean player acquisition of the past few years, someone with good but not great stats, got some issues, particularly age, and there's not really much going on that really encourages the fan to think we can win with him.
If this is the caliber of players Bochy's influence is bringing in, all I can say is "Ugh" and "Ewww".
But I will still give the new "team" a chance to wow me, by evaluating the whole roster once they are done, but starting off with Matthews would be starting the honeymoon off with a big downer, it would be like the new wife coming into the honeymoon bedroom wearing a long flannel plaid gown and green moisturizing cream all over her face.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
My 80/20 Scenario: Is Feliz in the Circle of Giants?
The news today in most media spots, like the Chron and the Merc, is that Pedro Feliz and the Giants are talking intently on bringing Feliz back to the Giants. This has set up fear and teeth gnashing among Giants fans over the possibility that that Sabean will allow him to return to the Circle of Giants sign him to a big and long contract.
From what I understand, Feliz really, really wants to return to the Giants, because he doesn't want to move his family - and if you've ever moved, you will understand that feeling. So everything will be driven by this want/need/desire of his: the no free agency filing, the agent "we can do it if we try" PR message, all predicated on letting the Giants know that he's on their team, please play ball with me. Because Feliz can file for free agency any day up to the first day of being able to talk to free agent, and it won't make a heck of a difference to his free agency bid for a big contract.
Agent-Speak for Giants Fans
Agents speak another language when they publicly speak. You need to read between the lines to understand what they are actually saying and thinking, because there's a motivation behind everything they say (assuming he is a good agent), it is all part of the negotiation game. Here's how I dissect the agent-speak.
"My hope is we can close the gap in the next couple of weeks." The good news here is that there is an actual GAP. Not "we have a few minor details to hammer out" or "we are close enough that I'm staying here in SF to get it done," but "hope we can close the gap". Any negotiation where the player wants to stay, you always have to give that hope publicly.
"I'm an eternal optimist, but this game is driven by economics and statistics, and it's not something one side controls." Well, I disagree, one side does have some control, the hitter holding the bat and swinging and compiling good stats to get a good contract. As many fans noted, Feliz did not do so well with the stats, and contrary to sentiment at many Giants fan sites, Sabean is no idiot, he knows how badly Feliz has done.
The good news here is that he's "an eternal optimist." That means that the two sides are far apart, no matter how badly Feliz wants to stay here. You don't say you are an eternal optimist if the two sides are very close, you only do that when the two sides are far apart even though his side wants it done. What need is there to be an optimist about, and particularly an eternal one, if things are close. This is great news that they are far apart.
I like the "this game is driven by economics and statistics." No, the game's economics is driven by the players thinking that if they made $X million last year, they deserve $X million + 10%, 20%, 30% the next year, just because. I see Feliz's agent touting his 98 RBI's ("almost 100!") and his great defense and his 3 consecutive seasons of 20 HRs, when I see him talking about economics and statistics, and that means he has an inflated sense of his client's economic worth.
My 80/20 Scenarios
My 80% likely scenario is that the agent feels the Giants are low-balling his client - hence the crack about economics and statistics - when he has nice stats like the 20+ HRs and 98 RBI, so he puts on the happy face for the public while noting that things are not a slam dunk at the moment. The disconnect there is that he thinks the Giants fans WANT Feliz back at any price.
The way I see it, the Giants want a cheaper solution for the 1B/3B conundrum. Hillenbrand is the better hitter and thus expects more money (especially since he made more than Feliz last season), so they are trying to work out a cheaper deal with Feliz first. From the sound of the agent, the two sides are apart at the moment and not close enough to assuredly say that a signing should happen before the free agency date.
My 20% fear scenario is that the Giants already made an offer that Feliz is happy with but his agent is doing this to try to get more out of the Giants in negotiations.
But unless he's an idiot - which you never know - to intimate publicly that the two sides are far apart, that there is still a gap, when the Giants might have made a fair offer, would be to publicly insult Sabean and most people who do that to Sabean tend to end up outside his Circle of Giants: Beck, Baker, Aurilia. Feliz does not appear to be out of the world in demands, like Aurila was with his 4 year $32M expectations when he entered free agency which resulted in the Giants not even bothering to negotiate. But to throw out words like eternal optimist and gap, that suggests that there's quite a divide there.
I take this news as good news that Feliz (or rather his agent) has probably priced himself out of the Giants immediate plans and that Sabean will move on to other options after his due diligence in trying to get a deal done with Feliz. I would be OK with Feliz at a modest salary and contract, because Sabean cannot be negotiating with so many free agents at the same time so he needs to get some positions settled before free agency starts, but his agent's posturing seems to imply that they want a big salary and I can't go for that.
Giants Strategy Interpretation
Interesting implication from the lack of news of Giants negotiating with their free agents during this exclusive period of negotiations is that the Giants appear ready to go with other options other than their free agents for 2007 and beyond. Durham's agent and Hillenbrand's agent have noted that they had at most, an initial discussion, but it appears that the Giants are prepared to let the market decide how high the salaries will go with the players, and then go from there.
I think part of that was due to wanting to wait for the Giants to pick their new manager - so that he can make suggestions/recommendations into who to retain - but it has been 4 days since Bochy was named manager, so the lack of news about contact on Monday (these articles published on Tuesday, today) could mean that Bochy has given his input and the Giants will let the free agent market determine each players' salary and at that point, the Giants will decide whether to fish or cut bait, or even possibly the Giants won't even pursue the player.
Happy Halloween!
From what I understand, Feliz really, really wants to return to the Giants, because he doesn't want to move his family - and if you've ever moved, you will understand that feeling. So everything will be driven by this want/need/desire of his: the no free agency filing, the agent "we can do it if we try" PR message, all predicated on letting the Giants know that he's on their team, please play ball with me. Because Feliz can file for free agency any day up to the first day of being able to talk to free agent, and it won't make a heck of a difference to his free agency bid for a big contract.
Agent-Speak for Giants Fans
Agents speak another language when they publicly speak. You need to read between the lines to understand what they are actually saying and thinking, because there's a motivation behind everything they say (assuming he is a good agent), it is all part of the negotiation game. Here's how I dissect the agent-speak.
"My hope is we can close the gap in the next couple of weeks." The good news here is that there is an actual GAP. Not "we have a few minor details to hammer out" or "we are close enough that I'm staying here in SF to get it done," but "hope we can close the gap". Any negotiation where the player wants to stay, you always have to give that hope publicly.
"I'm an eternal optimist, but this game is driven by economics and statistics, and it's not something one side controls." Well, I disagree, one side does have some control, the hitter holding the bat and swinging and compiling good stats to get a good contract. As many fans noted, Feliz did not do so well with the stats, and contrary to sentiment at many Giants fan sites, Sabean is no idiot, he knows how badly Feliz has done.
The good news here is that he's "an eternal optimist." That means that the two sides are far apart, no matter how badly Feliz wants to stay here. You don't say you are an eternal optimist if the two sides are very close, you only do that when the two sides are far apart even though his side wants it done. What need is there to be an optimist about, and particularly an eternal one, if things are close. This is great news that they are far apart.
I like the "this game is driven by economics and statistics." No, the game's economics is driven by the players thinking that if they made $X million last year, they deserve $X million + 10%, 20%, 30% the next year, just because. I see Feliz's agent touting his 98 RBI's ("almost 100!") and his great defense and his 3 consecutive seasons of 20 HRs, when I see him talking about economics and statistics, and that means he has an inflated sense of his client's economic worth.
My 80/20 Scenarios
My 80% likely scenario is that the agent feels the Giants are low-balling his client - hence the crack about economics and statistics - when he has nice stats like the 20+ HRs and 98 RBI, so he puts on the happy face for the public while noting that things are not a slam dunk at the moment. The disconnect there is that he thinks the Giants fans WANT Feliz back at any price.
The way I see it, the Giants want a cheaper solution for the 1B/3B conundrum. Hillenbrand is the better hitter and thus expects more money (especially since he made more than Feliz last season), so they are trying to work out a cheaper deal with Feliz first. From the sound of the agent, the two sides are apart at the moment and not close enough to assuredly say that a signing should happen before the free agency date.
My 20% fear scenario is that the Giants already made an offer that Feliz is happy with but his agent is doing this to try to get more out of the Giants in negotiations.
But unless he's an idiot - which you never know - to intimate publicly that the two sides are far apart, that there is still a gap, when the Giants might have made a fair offer, would be to publicly insult Sabean and most people who do that to Sabean tend to end up outside his Circle of Giants: Beck, Baker, Aurilia. Feliz does not appear to be out of the world in demands, like Aurila was with his 4 year $32M expectations when he entered free agency which resulted in the Giants not even bothering to negotiate. But to throw out words like eternal optimist and gap, that suggests that there's quite a divide there.
I take this news as good news that Feliz (or rather his agent) has probably priced himself out of the Giants immediate plans and that Sabean will move on to other options after his due diligence in trying to get a deal done with Feliz. I would be OK with Feliz at a modest salary and contract, because Sabean cannot be negotiating with so many free agents at the same time so he needs to get some positions settled before free agency starts, but his agent's posturing seems to imply that they want a big salary and I can't go for that.
Giants Strategy Interpretation
Interesting implication from the lack of news of Giants negotiating with their free agents during this exclusive period of negotiations is that the Giants appear ready to go with other options other than their free agents for 2007 and beyond. Durham's agent and Hillenbrand's agent have noted that they had at most, an initial discussion, but it appears that the Giants are prepared to let the market decide how high the salaries will go with the players, and then go from there.
I think part of that was due to wanting to wait for the Giants to pick their new manager - so that he can make suggestions/recommendations into who to retain - but it has been 4 days since Bochy was named manager, so the lack of news about contact on Monday (these articles published on Tuesday, today) could mean that Bochy has given his input and the Giants will let the free agent market determine each players' salary and at that point, the Giants will decide whether to fish or cut bait, or even possibly the Giants won't even pursue the player.
Happy Halloween!
Sunday, October 29, 2006
What I Like About Bochy So Far and Other Observations
Clearly, I'm disappointed by the appointment, but it's not the end of the world either. I'm sure he will prove to be a safe, stable move by Sabean. It's just that I'm not that excited either.
But I'm willing to give him a chance - what choice do I have, I'm still a Giants fan, and I'm never going to another team, I'll be one of those interested in the new Giants logo for caskets product offering (no kidding!) - so we'll just have to make the best of things and wait and see and invoke the "In Sabean We Trust (tm)" motto.
More on Bochy
For now, there is a nice profile of Bochy in the Merc today. It confirms what I speculated when analyzing the data on his managerial moves: he's a quasi-saber with his main deficiency, according to the article, his penchant to rely too heavily on veterans, which, as any Giants fan knows, is right up Sabean's alley.
It also notes a quality that Giants fans will appreciate: he is not in the habit of getting pitchers up and down repeatedly in a game - a trait fans and players grumbled about Alou - if the pitcher is warming up, he can expect to pitch. Alan Embree, a former Giant and (now) former Bochy reliever, said "He doesn't abuse his players."
Another trait that is useful for a manager to have is that he comes from a military family, so he is used to precision and detail, which would be a great help to any position, but particularly so for a manager. Plus his steadiness - a trait of good generals in war - after the Dodger's stunning 4 homer victory was a great example for his team. He didn't do anything different, he didn't call any meeting, he just acted like it was just another day at the ballpark where nothing extraordinary happened the day before, and the team went on a big win streak to win the division over the D-gers.
The biggest quote of his in the article for saber-oriented fans is this: "I don't like to give away outs." That is a huge tenet of saber-fans, the conservation of outs. Over the past five seasons, the 'Dres had the fewest sacrifice hits of any NL club. However, he is a proponent of stolen bases - he had Robert, Cameron, and Barfield running last season - and SBs are not held in high esteem by sabers. I don't recall studies but I think as long as runners are efficient enough in stealing bases (the gold standard before was over 80% success rate), it is not harmful either.
Maxi-Me, Sabean Style
Based on this article, Bochy seems to be Sabean's proxy in the dugout - I would have used the term, "mini-me", but anyone who saw the press conference for the announcement, could see that Bochy towered over Sabean. Sabean said in an interview a year or two ago that he sees teams shifting back towards speed driving run production over the homer-ball that has marked the current era. If you look at his picks over the past few years - Lewis, Sanders, Burriss - one can see that he has been picking up plus speedsters who get on base a lot.
In addition, Bochy has done a nice job with the pitching staff, working with young as well as old, plus keeping his bullpen a huge asset over the years by not overworking them, according to what Hoffman and Embree has said. Hoffman noted that if it weren't for Bochy's care, he probably would have burned out like so many other flash-in-the-pan closers, and said that "no one could have handled me better over all these years."
Peavy, in this ode to Bochy from some of his former charges, said that he really appreciated the way Bochy respected him. "He let me take some lumps, but Boch never, ever got down on me when I went through bad stretches." "I got to the big leagues as a kid, barely 21 years old, and I was told I was going to face the Yankees. I remember walking into Boch's office and feeding off his positive energy, his support. He said, 'We believe in you kid; that's why we're giving you the ball at this stage of your career. We think you can do the job.' It's been that way my whole career."
So those are nice qualities about Bochy that has come up in the two linked articles. I'm warming up to him and, if I didn't make it clear before, I do realize that it is not the end of the world. But it is not like a brand new love either, there is not any hope for great things, there is simply grudging acceptance that we have a new sheriff in town and we must simply wish for the best and see what happens when the roster is put together with his input, that will give a clearer indication what type of manager we can expect him to be.
But I'm willing to give him a chance - what choice do I have, I'm still a Giants fan, and I'm never going to another team, I'll be one of those interested in the new Giants logo for caskets product offering (no kidding!) - so we'll just have to make the best of things and wait and see and invoke the "In Sabean We Trust (tm)" motto.
More on Bochy
For now, there is a nice profile of Bochy in the Merc today. It confirms what I speculated when analyzing the data on his managerial moves: he's a quasi-saber with his main deficiency, according to the article, his penchant to rely too heavily on veterans, which, as any Giants fan knows, is right up Sabean's alley.
It also notes a quality that Giants fans will appreciate: he is not in the habit of getting pitchers up and down repeatedly in a game - a trait fans and players grumbled about Alou - if the pitcher is warming up, he can expect to pitch. Alan Embree, a former Giant and (now) former Bochy reliever, said "He doesn't abuse his players."
Another trait that is useful for a manager to have is that he comes from a military family, so he is used to precision and detail, which would be a great help to any position, but particularly so for a manager. Plus his steadiness - a trait of good generals in war - after the Dodger's stunning 4 homer victory was a great example for his team. He didn't do anything different, he didn't call any meeting, he just acted like it was just another day at the ballpark where nothing extraordinary happened the day before, and the team went on a big win streak to win the division over the D-gers.
The biggest quote of his in the article for saber-oriented fans is this: "I don't like to give away outs." That is a huge tenet of saber-fans, the conservation of outs. Over the past five seasons, the 'Dres had the fewest sacrifice hits of any NL club. However, he is a proponent of stolen bases - he had Robert, Cameron, and Barfield running last season - and SBs are not held in high esteem by sabers. I don't recall studies but I think as long as runners are efficient enough in stealing bases (the gold standard before was over 80% success rate), it is not harmful either.
Maxi-Me, Sabean Style
Based on this article, Bochy seems to be Sabean's proxy in the dugout - I would have used the term, "mini-me", but anyone who saw the press conference for the announcement, could see that Bochy towered over Sabean. Sabean said in an interview a year or two ago that he sees teams shifting back towards speed driving run production over the homer-ball that has marked the current era. If you look at his picks over the past few years - Lewis, Sanders, Burriss - one can see that he has been picking up plus speedsters who get on base a lot.
In addition, Bochy has done a nice job with the pitching staff, working with young as well as old, plus keeping his bullpen a huge asset over the years by not overworking them, according to what Hoffman and Embree has said. Hoffman noted that if it weren't for Bochy's care, he probably would have burned out like so many other flash-in-the-pan closers, and said that "no one could have handled me better over all these years."
Peavy, in this ode to Bochy from some of his former charges, said that he really appreciated the way Bochy respected him. "He let me take some lumps, but Boch never, ever got down on me when I went through bad stretches." "I got to the big leagues as a kid, barely 21 years old, and I was told I was going to face the Yankees. I remember walking into Boch's office and feeding off his positive energy, his support. He said, 'We believe in you kid; that's why we're giving you the ball at this stage of your career. We think you can do the job.' It's been that way my whole career."
So those are nice qualities about Bochy that has come up in the two linked articles. I'm warming up to him and, if I didn't make it clear before, I do realize that it is not the end of the world. But it is not like a brand new love either, there is not any hope for great things, there is simply grudging acceptance that we have a new sheriff in town and we must simply wish for the best and see what happens when the roster is put together with his input, that will give a clearer indication what type of manager we can expect him to be.
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